原文网址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/04/04/rookie-of-the-year-by-the-numbers/
图文部落格(附详细表格):
http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32169794
Kia Rookie of the Year voting should be pretty simple this season. There are
only nine rookies who have averaged at least 20 minutes per game for 50 games
or more. And none of those have done it for a team with a winning record.
Winning records don’t matter much in Rookie of the Year voting. None of the
last 10 winners played for teams with winning records. So there probably won’
t be anything stopping the media from voting for Michael Carter-Williams (of
the 16-59 Sixers) or Victor Oladipo (of the 21-54 Magic).
Carter-Williams appears to be the clear favorite. He leads all rookies in
points, rebounds, assists and steals per game.
That doesn’t mean that he’s the best player among all rookies. He’s just
had the biggest opportunity, playing for a team that stripped its roster bare
over the course of the last 10 months.
本季的年度最佳新秀应该非常容易预测，一共只有9名新人平均出赛时间超过20分钟，出
赛场次超过50场，而且没有任何菜鸟的球队胜率过半。不过胜率过半这件事对年度最佳新
秀的票选来说并不重要，过去十年拿到这个奖项的球员，没有人的球队达到五成胜率，所
以可能没有任何事情可以阻止媒体把票投给Michael Carter-Williams(76人战绩16胜59负
)或是Victor Oladipo(魔术战绩21胜54负)。而Carter-Williams看起来明显比较有胜算，
他在平均得分、篮板、助攻和抄截都领先其他的新秀。但这不表示他是全部当中最优秀的
新鲜人，他只是获得最多的上场机会来表现自己而已，尤其是他效力的球队在过去10个月
以来，把场上每个位置的球员都丢光光了。
Carter-Williams has been the only rookie to start every game he’s played in,
and his back-up — Tony Wroten — was never a threat to take any of his
minutes, especially since developing the rookie has been priority No. 1 in
Philadelphia this season. Even if winning games was a priority, Wroten isn’t
good enough to take minutes away from MCW.
Not only has Carter-Williams led rookies in minutes per game and usage rate,
but the Sixers have played at the *fastest pace in the league. So, when it
comes to racking up per-game numbers, he’s had a three-tier advantage over
other rookies.
* The fourth fastest pace of the last 20 years, actually.
We can adjust for all that, though. NBA.com’s PIE statistic takes a player’
s numbers (with weights added to each) as a percentage of the overall numbers
that were accumulated while he was on the floor. And only one rookie ranks
higher than Carter-Williams in terms of PIE…
Carter-Williams是唯一一位每次出赛都先发的菜鸟，他的替补— Tony Wroten —从来没
有办法对他的上场时间造成威胁，特别是费城本季最重要的任务就是培养新人。就算是把
赢球放在第一顺位，Wroten也没有好到能够抢走MCW的时间。Carter-Williams不只是在出
赛时间和使用率领先其他新秀，76人同时也是联盟中节奏最快的球队(注)，因此当我们计
算每场平均数据时，他占尽了所有优势。然而我们可以做些调整，NBA.com的PIE统计把球
员的数据(加权计算后)和他上场时的数据累积总和做百分比计算，这么一来只有一位新人
能在PIE的表现上赢过Carter-Williams。
注：实际上，本季的76人是过去20年来节奏第4快的球队。
Player GP MIN eFG% TS% Usg% PIE
Mason Plumlee 62 1,079 63.2% 65.3% 16.9% 10.5%
Michael Carter-Williams 63 2,181 42.2% 46.9% 26.0% 9.8%
Nick Calathes 64 1,069 49.5% 51.0% 17.9% 9.8%
Victor Oladipo 73 2,325 45.3% 51.2% 24.0% 9.6%
Nate Wolters 58 1,310 46.0% 48.6% 16.7% 9.3%
Cody Zeller 75 1,266 41.9% 49.1% 18.2% 8.7%
Trey Burke 63 1,995 44.2% 47.2% 22.1% 8.1%
Kelly Olynyk 63 1,215 48.6% 52.8% 20.0% 8.0%
Ryan Kelly 52 1,103 51.2% 57.3% 15.4% 7.8%
Giannis Antetokounmpo 70 1,705 46.9% 52.5% 15.3% 7.6%
Matthew Dellavedova 66 1,132 50.8% 53.7% 13.3% 7.5%
Tim Hardaway Jr. 75 1,732 52.9% 55.8% 19.1% 7.4%
Hollis Thompson 70 1,559 54.5% 56.7% 11.4% 6.0%
Tony Snell 70 1,178 47.0% 48.9% 15.0% 5.8%
Steven Adams 74 1,102 49.7% 53.6% 11.7% 5.2%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 73 1,446 45.9% 48.3% 13.6% 5.0%
Ben McLemore 75 1,934 44.4% 47.9% 16.7% 3.9%
By the way, this certainly isn’t the best rookie class in recent memory, but
it might have the longest names.
顺道一提，本季的菜鸟确实不是近年来最好的一批，但他们可能是名字最长的一群。
So Mason Plumlee has made more of his minutes than Carter-Williams has, and
has also done it for a playoff team. But MCW has played twice as many
minutes. And if you’re voting for Rookie of the Year, it’s hard to argue
against that.
Carter-Williams has also made the Sixers a better team. They’ve been
outscored by 15.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench, but by
only 8.9 with him on the floor. That minus-8.9 NetRtg would still rank 29th
in the league (ahead of only the Bucks), but it’s a heck of a lot better
than minus-15.2.
Of the 17 rookies who have played at least 1,000 minutes, only three have a
positive plus-minus. They are Steven Adams (plus-52), Matthew Dellavedova
(plus-46) and Nick Calathes (plus-9). And Adams’ team has been much better
with him off the floor.
Several more rookies can say they’ve made a positive impact…
Mason Plumlee在场上的效率比Carter-Williams还要好，而且还身处在一支季后赛球队当
中，但是MCW的出赛时间超过两倍之多，当你要选择年度最佳新秀时，你很难去质疑这点
。Carter-Williams同时也让76人变得更好，他不在场上时球队每100回合会输15.2分，当
他上场后就只输8.9分而已。-8.9分的NetRtg在联盟中还是只能排在第29名(只赢过公鹿)
，不过这比那烂透了的-15.2分还要好多了。在17位上场至少1000分钟的新秀里，只有3位
球员的正负值大于零，分别是Steven Adams(+52)、Matthew Dellavedova(+46)和Nick
Calathes(+9)，但是Adams的球队在他休息时表现会更好。下面的表格中还有许多新秀对球
队有正面的贡献…(见上述网址)
It helps to know who those guys are playing their minutes with, but among
Sixer rotation regulars, only Evan Turner had a higher on-court NetRtg than
Carter-Williams.
So while it’s important to add context to Carter-Williams per-game numbers,
the context doesn’t hurt his Rookie of the Year candidacy very much.
若是将这些家伙都和谁一起上场打球考虑进来，会得到比较正确的判断，但是76人的轮替
名单中只有Evan Turner上场时的NetRtg比Carter-Williams还要好。因此就算
Carter-Williams的平均数据有其他因素的美化效果，仍然无法损及其年度最佳新秀的首
位候选资格。