原文网址:
http://ppt.cc/GA41
图文部落格(附详细表格):
http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32139881
The Kia Most Improved Player award is thought of as the most nebulous of the
six major end-of-season awards and typically gets the widest range of votes.
Last season, though Paul George finished with a vote total of more than twice
that of any other player, 15 different players received at least one
first-place vote and another 18 received at least one vote for second or
third place.
But the award also lends itself to simple statistical analysis. It should be
fairly simple to determine whose numbers have improved most from season to
season.
If you want to get real simple, we can just compare the raw numbers, using
the efficiency statistic.
最佳进步奖一向被认为是季末六大奖项中最难以预测的，候选人的范围也是最广的。虽然
去年Paul George以超过两倍的得票数抱回奖项，但是总共有15名球员拿到至少一张第一
名选票，另外还有18名球员拿到第二名或第三名的选票。其实这个奖项非常适合用数据来
分析，直接将这两年的成绩做比较，看谁得进步最多就行了。如果你想要一个最简单的方
法，那就使用效率值(Efficiency)吧。表格中列出的是Efficiency进步最多的20名球员。
(http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32139881 第一个表格)
At this point, the big question has to be asked: Should second-year players
be considered for the Most Improved Player award? If not, we can eliminate
several guys on the list above, though both Terrence Jones and Miles Plumlee
– two starters on Western Conference playoff teams — feel like strong
candidates. Only two of the top 10 in last year’s voting — Nikola Vucevic
(4th) and Chandler Parsons (10th) — were second-year players.
There are also a handful of veterans on the list who missed large chunks of
last season with injuries, though Kevin Love and Trevor Ariza are having the
best seasons of their careers.
这时问题来了：最佳进步奖应该颁给二年级生吗? 如果答案是否定的，那么我们就可以从
上列名单删掉许多人了，尽管Terrence Jones和Miles Plumlee这两名二年级生分别在所
属的西区季后赛球队中打到先发位置，似乎是强力候选人才对，不过去年只有两名二年级
生在票选中排进前十名：Nikola Vucevic(第四名)和Chandler Parsons(第十名)。另外这
份名单还有些去年因伤缺赛的老鸟，像是Kevin Love以及Trevor Ariza，在今年打出生涯
最佳成绩。
Timofey Mozgov and Gerald Green are interesting candidates, but were both out
of their team’s rotations last season, so their improved raw numbers may
also be about opportunity.
But Mozgov’s name comes up when we look at PIE improvement. PIE takes a
player’s numbers (with weights added to each) as a percentage of the overall
numbers that were accumulated while he was on the floor. So it adjusts for
pace and there’s a team-success element to it, because if your opponent doesn
’t score as many points or grab as many rebounds your individual number will
be higher.
Timofey Mozgov和Gerald Green则是另外两名有趣的候选人，他们去年根本不在轮值名单
内，所以今年的进步基本上是来自于上场机会的增加。若是改看PIE的进步，Mozgov的名
字仍然在前20名。PIE是将球员的数据(加权处理后)和他在场上时全体数据的加总做比较
所占的比例，因此它可以排除比赛的节奏的影响，同时也包含了球队赢球贡献的元素在里
头，因为若是你的对手得分不多或是篮板不强，你个人的数据将会上升。下面表格列出了
PIE进步前20名。(http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32139881 第二个表格)
Love, Mozgov and Andrew Bogut are the only players on both lists. But Bogut
had better seasons in Milwaukee and Love’s increase is just 1.0 percent over
his third season in the league. Mozgov has taken a decent jump, but still isn
’t a real impact player in the league.
Based on the above lists and deeper dives into the numbers, there are four
non-second-year candidates that stand out.
Love、Mozgov和Andrew Bogut同时都出现在这两份名单里，不过Bogut生涯最佳球季是公
鹿时期的事，Love和他第三年的成绩比起来仅仅只进步了1.0%而已，Mozgov虽然有长足的
进步，但是他对球赛依旧没有实质的影响力。针对上面两份名单做更深入的分析，将会有
以下四名非二年级生入围。
Marco Belinelli, Spurs
Choosing between the Spurs’ two back-up guards is tough, because Patty Mills
‘ play has been eye-opening. But Belinelli has had a bigger role on the
league’s best team.
Belinelli’s points per game have increased from 9.6 season last season (with
Chicago) only to 11.4 this year. And he averaged more than that (11.8) two
seasons ago with New Orleans. But he’s having, by far, the best shooting and
rebounding seasons of his career.
Among 168 players who have attempted at least 100 shots from the restricted
area each of the last two seasons, Belinelli (51.9 percent last season, 70.2
percent this season) ranks second in improvement, behind only Love.
Among 139 players who have attempted at least 100 mid-range shots each of the
last two seasons, Belinelli (35.9 percent, 44.0 percent) ranks sixth in
improvement.
And among 126 players who have attempted at least 100 3-pointers each of the
last two seasons, Belinelli (35.7 percent, 43.7 percent) ranks fifth in
improvement.
No other player is in the top 25 of all three lists, and only one (Markieff
Morris) is in the top 10 of more than one. It certainly helps (quite a bit,
one could argue) that Belinelli has gone from a bottom-10 offensive team last
season to a top-10 offensive team this year. But he also ranks 10th in
improved rebounding percentage among players who have played at least 1,000
minutes each of the last two seasons.
Marco Belinelli，马刺
想在马刺两名替补后卫中做抉择很不容易，因为Patty Mills的球风让人眼睛为之一亮，
不过Belinelli在这支联盟最佳球队中扮演比较吃重的角色。Belinelli的得分仅从上一季
的9.6分(公牛时期)进步到本季的11.4分，他两年前在纽奥良的得分(11.8分)甚至还比较
高，可是他今年的投篮命中率和篮板都来到生涯新高。
在168名连续两个球季都篮下出手超过100次的球员中，Belinelli的命中率(去年51.9%，
今年70.2%)进步幅度排名第二，只输给Love。
在139名两个球季中距离出手超过100次的球员中，Belinelli的命中率(去年35.9%，今年
44.0%)进步幅度排名第六。
在126名这两季三分球出手超过100次的球员中，Belinelli的命中率(去年35.7%，今年
43.7%)进步幅度排名第五。
没有任何其他人可以同时在这三组名单中排进前25名，另外只有一个人(Markieff
Morris)能够在不只一组中排进前十名，这当然得力于(多少会有人质疑)Belinelli刚从一
支进攻倒数前10名的球队换到进攻前10名的球队，不过在这两年至少打满1000分钟的球员
中，他的篮板率进步幅度也排到第10名。
DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
Boogie has seen a jump in both usage (USG%) and scoring efficiency (TS%).
Though he’s still not a great shooter (his 49.3 effective field-goal
percentage is below the league average), he has gone to the line a lot more
than he ever has. He has also rebounded at a career-high rate.
Defensively, he’s not exactly Roy Hibbert or Kevin Garnett, and transition
defense is a major problem. But the Kings have been almost six points per 100
possessions better defensively with Cousins on the floor. He’s a plus-62 for
a team that’s 25-46.
Cousins’ teammate Isaiah Thomas seems like another good candidate and is
16th on the most-improved PIE list above. But his scoring effective
field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage have barely budged (his
3-point percentage and free-throw percentage have gone down), and his numbers
jump is mostly about an increased usage rate and a small jump in assist rate.
DeMarcus Cousins，国王
Boogie(Cousins的绰号)本季在使用率(USG%)和得分效率(TS%)都有显著的提升，尽管他的
投篮依旧不佳(他的有效命中率49.3%低于联盟平均)，但他制造犯规上罚球线的次数比以
往都要多，而且他的篮板也是生涯最高。
在防守的部份他没有Roy Hibbert或Kevin Garnett的水准，攻守转换的防守是个明显的问
题，但是当他在场上时国王的DefRtg%进步了将近6分，而且他在25胜46负的球队中正负值
还有+26。
Cousin的队友Isaiah Thomas似乎是另外一个不错的候选人，他在PIE进步排行榜中名列第
16，然而他的真实命中率几乎没有改变(他的三分球和罚球命中率都下降)，他进步的部份
主要是使用率的大幅上升和助攻率的小幅提高。
Markieff Morris, Suns
If you could vote for the Morris twins as one entity, that would be the clear
favorite. You can’t, but Markieff (No. 11 in your programs) should be on the
short list.
He’s been a much more efficient player this season, even though his usage
rate has jumped quite a bit. And the Suns, who are an improved defensive
team, have been better on that end of the floor with Markieff in the game.
As referenced above, he’s the ninth most improved mid-range shooter in the
league and also ninth most improved in the restricted area. He’s played
about the same number of minutes as he did last season and he’s gone to the
line more than twice as many times.
With both Morris twins, Plumlee, Gerald Green and Goran Dragic all worthy of
some consideration for Most Improved, it’s obvious that Jeff Hornacek should
be in the running for Coach of the Year.
Markieff Morris，太阳
如果可以把Morris双胞胎兄弟当作一个选项，那会是个不错的选择，但这是不可能的，尽
管如此Markieff应该还是能够入围这份名单。
即使本季的使用率上升了不少，他的表现却还更有效率，同时太阳本季在防守上进步不少
，特别是当Markieff在场上的时候。
就像上面提到的，他在中距离和篮下的命中率进步幅度都排名第九，而且他在上场时间几
乎和去年一样的情形下，罚球机会增加了超过两倍。
其实太阳的Morris双胞胎、Plumlee、Gerald Green和Goran Dragic都有资格角逐最佳进
步奖，显然他们的教练Jeff Hornacek应该有资格竞争年度最佳教练。
Lance Stephenson, Pacers
Like Cousins and Morris, Stephenson has seen a big jump in both usage rate
and efficiency. But he’s also the most improved rebounder among 203 players
who have logged at least 1,000 minutes each of the last two seasons, with his
rebounding percentage jumping from 7.5 percent to 11.4 percent (best among
guards).
Stephenson still has some improving to do. He’s a below-average shooter from
outside the paint and his turnover rate has jumped as he’s been asked to
handle the ball more. But overall, he’s taken a step forward this season.
Lance Stephenson，溜马
就像Cousins和Morris一样，Stephenson在使用率和效率值上都有大幅度的提升，同时他
也是203名至少打满1000分钟的球员中，篮板进步最多的人，他的篮板率从7.5%增加到
11.4%(这个数字是后卫中最好的)。
当然Stephenson仍然有需要改善的地方，包括他在禁区外低于平均的投篮能力，以及他被
赋与更多持球责任时大幅上升的失误率，不过整体来说，他本季确实是往前迈进了一大步
。