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Kobe Bryant's No. 25 #NBARank and history
Projecting what Kobe Bryant can contribute in 2013-14 is guesswork, but the
numbers aren't optimistic.
预测 Kobe 在 2013-14 球季成缴出什么成绩就像是在猜谜，不可能完全准确。
Our #NBArank project set off a firestorm this past week when Kobe Bryant was
unveiled as our panel’s choice at No. 25.
ESPN 团队公布 Kobe 为第25名的事件在上周引起了轩然大波。
The panel was asked to rate each player from 0 to 10, with the following
guidelines: "Rate the overall level of play you PREDICT for each player for
the upcoming NBA season. This includes both the quality and the quantity of
his expected contributions, combined in one overall rating."
团队成员被要求给予“0至10分”来评价每位球员，依据以下的说明
“预测每位球员下一季的整体表现，质与量都包含在考量之中，合计为一个整体分数”
In other words, how much can we expect this player to contribute during the
upcoming NBA season?
也就是说，这位球员未来一季能带给我们多少期待？
With that in mind, many voters on the #NBArank panel projected that, coming
off surgery for a torn Achilles tendon, Bryant’s production in 2013-14 will
fall off dramatically. We don’t know when Bryant will return to the court
and, when he does, we have no idea how the injury will affect his
performance.
在这样的心证下，团队中许多评审都认为：
经过阿基里斯腱手术后，Kobe 的表现会一落千丈。
但其实我们不知道 Kobe 何时会回到球场上；我们也不知道伤势会如何影响他的表现。
Those questions inspired the team at Princeton Sports Analysts to
investigate. PSA is a collective of Princeton undergrads who study advanced
analytics, stats and the economics of sports. To get a better sense of how
Bryant’s injury might affect his output this season, the gang at PSA turned
to a paper published in March titled, “Performance Outcomes After Repair of
Complete Achilles Tendon Ruptures in National Basketball Association Players.
”
这些好奇激起了 PSA (Princeton Sports Analysts) 的好奇心想一探究竟。
PSA 是一群研究进阶运动分析、运动数据和运动经济的大学生所组成。
为了深入了解 Kobe 的伤势可能会如何影响他的表现，
他们参考了一篇三月发表的论文名为“NBA球员跟腱术后的表现”
The study looked at 18 players who suffered the injury, and the findings were
discouraging, as summarized by PSA:
这份研究观察了18位受此伤之苦的球员，最后的结果是呈现悲观的，
PSA 总结如下：
Of those 18 players, 7 were never able to return to NBA action, 3 returned
for just one season, and the remaining 8 would go on to play 2 or more
seasons. And of those players that returned, their performance suffered
drastically, especially in their first season. In their study of the 11
players that returned to the NBA, the players' PER (player efficiency
rating), decreased by an average of 4.57 points. In the second, it decreased
by 4.38 points.
在这18位球员中，7个没有再回到 NBA 赛场上、3个只回来打了一季、
剩下8个可以再打个两季以上。
而那些再回来的球员，表现都很惨，尤其是刚回来的第一季。
研究中那11位有再回来的球员，PER 平均跌 4.57分；
第二个球季的 PER 相较伤前则平均跌 4.38分。
... If you decreased his PER by the average reduction of 4.57 ... you’d find
that Kobe would’ve ranked 49th in the league last year, some 24 spots higher
than where ESPN has him in their NBA Rank. Kobe is an animal, but the stats
indicate that the anger towards his NBA Rank of 25 is far from justified.
如果你把 Kobe 伤前的 PER 减掉4.57再放回去年的排名，
你会得到第49名这个比 EPSN 预测再烂24个顺位的名次。
Kobe 是条猛兽，但数据告诉我们这些对于排名第25的怒火其实毫无道理。
That’s a steep drop, and if we want a case study in the impact of an
Achilles injury, Elton Brand provides a helpful example. In 2005-06, Brand
ranked 6th in the league with a PER of 26.67. The following year, he dropped
to 23.16, which was still good for 14th overall. That following summer, Brand
suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon, missed all but eight games in 2007-08
and has never recorded a PER better than 18.5 since.
还真惨阿 ...
如果我们想要了解跟腱伤势的影响， Elton Brand 会是一个有帮助的例子。
2005-06球季 Brand 的 PER 26.67在联盟排名第6，
隔年掉到 23.16 不过总排名14还是不错，
接下来的夏天， Brand 身受跟腱断裂之苦，2007-08整季只打了八场比赛。
之后 PER 就一直低于18.5。
Bryant is a different caliber of ballplayer, the ultimate outlier