Diminishing returns and the offseason
当报酬递减法则遇上快艇的休赛季补强
This offseason was universally proclaimed a success for the Clippers.
With the acquisitions of Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick, they made
massive upgrades on the wings and also added some interesting
versatility with tweener forward Antawn Jamison. The undercover star
of last season’s team, Matt Barnes, was re-signed to a very
reasonable deal and Darren Collison, signed on the cheap, helped
mitigate the loss of Eric Bledsoe.
快艇队这次的休赛季被外界一致认同是个成功休赛季。在得到Jared Dudley
和J.J. Redick后，快艇队的侧翼进攻获得显著的升级。同时，增加了摇摆人
前锋Antawn Jamison为球队增添一些有意思的多样性。此外，以相当合理的
价格签回上一季球队的隐形球星－Matt Barnes，和以便宜的价钱签下Darren
Collison，帮助球队舒缓少了Eric Bledsoe的损失。
The Clippers gained net talent and none of the new players look to
be a problematic fit. On the contrary, Redick, Dudley and Collison
fit perfectly in the Clippers’ offense. That offense should be an
explosive combination of shooting and dunks driven by the prowess
of Chris Paul.
快艇队增加了新的天份，而且这些新球员看起来没有任何融入球队的问题。相
反的，Redick、Dudley和Collsion可以完美的融入快艇队的进攻。由鬼神的
Chris Paul主导的进攻应该可以成为灌篮大赛和三分球大赛的组合。
The thing is, offense wasn’t an issue last season, and an offense
featuring Paul and Blake Griffin never will be an issue. Los Angeles
scored at a rate of just 1.8 points per 100 possessions below the
league leading Oklahoma City Thunder. Dudley and Redick should bridge
that gap, but that additional 1.8 points per 100 possessions
offensively is only equivalent to about four wins over the course of
a season. And when you consider the losses of Bledsoe and Odom, who
anchored the best qualified defensive lineup in the league, it’s
hard to see this offseason making that large of an impact on the
Clippers, at least in the regular season. Los Angeles will be largely
counting on internal player development.
事实上，进攻在上一季并不是个问题，以Paul和Blake Griffin为主的进攻永
远不会是个问题。洛杉矶快艇队上季得分效率以每一百次进攻来算的话只比进
攻效率最佳的奥克拉荷马雷霆队少1.8分。Dudley和Redick应该能补上这段差
距。然而，每百次进攻多这1.8分大概等同于整个赛季多个四胜而已。而你当
考虑到失去了Bledsoe和Odom这两位稳固联盟最优质的防守阵容的球员时，很
难去想像这个休赛季对快艇队战力有很大的影响，至少在常规赛时很难看到。
洛杉矶快艇队的未来很大一部份将要依赖内部球员的成长。
Last season’s obstacle was the lack of defense, especially on the
interior. The Clippers’ defense got progressively worse throughout
the year, and the losses of Bledsoe and Odom don’t help the case
that L.A. will have a top flight defense this year.
上一季的失败归因于防守匮乏，尤其是禁区的巩固。上季整季下来，快艇队的
防守是渐渐变差，而再损失Bledsoe和Odom后这状况对于快艇队这季成为防守
强队可是一点帮助都没有。
NBA offenses have become more based on dribble penetrators who can
compromise a defense’s shape and open up opportunities for teammates.
In turn, centers who can protect the rim at a high level are a
precious commodity because they help defenses maintain shape against
these slashers.
NBA现今的进攻多数依赖运球切入者破坏防守阵势和为队友创造出机会。所以
可以巩固禁区的中锋是贵重的资产，因为在面对切豆腐高手时他们能维持防守
阵势。
The Clippers have a glaring hole where that rim protector should be.
Theoretically, it’s DeAndre Jordan, but lack of understanding on how
to move defensively negates his elite athleticism. Will Doc Rivers be
able to turn Jordan into a high level defender? It’s possible, but
not something to bank on. Rivers doesn’t have a noted track record
as a talent developer, and the ability to coach a killer defensive
system may not be the same as the ability to turn an average defender
into a great one. Jordan won’t suddenly “get it” after hearing some
mystical secret of big man defense from Rivers. Learning takes time.
快艇队的禁区有块大洞，因为他们缺乏巩固禁区的人。理论上来说，这该是
DeAndre Jordan的工作，但由于缺乏防守脚步，使他优异的体能无法发挥。Doc
Rivers能将Jordan变成优秀的防守者吗？可能性虽存在，但不敢寄望于这个可
能性。Rivers并不以改造大师闻名，而执教出一个窒息式防守体系的能力不等
同于将普通的防守者改造成优异的防守者的能力。在得到一些Rivers的高个防
守密技后，Jordon并不会突然开窍。学习是件耗时的事。
Let’s go back to my initial assertion that the Clippers offseason
acquisitions would only improve the offense around two points per 100
possessions and discuss the idea of diminishing returns. Diminishing
returns says that as more things are added together, the value of
each of these things diminishes. Let’s say LeBron James is worth 17
wins above average (if a team of average players wins 41 games;
replace one of those with James and the team wins 55 games), Dwyane
Wade is worth 14 games, and Chris Bosh is worth 13. Does a completely
average team that replaces three of its players with these three win
76 games? Well, no, not quite. These three players have overlapping
roles so together they make less of an individual impact. That’s
the general idea. Diminishing returns has been shown to have an effect
on a number of basketball statistics, most famously rebounding.
回到我开头主张快艇队休赛期间的操作只会让每百次进攻增加两分，和讨论报
酬递减的概念。所谓的报酬递减是说当更多的事物叠加在一起，其产生的价值
会递减。假设说LeBron James的胜场价值比平均多17胜（假设一个以平均程度
球员组成的球队能赢41场比赛；将James取代其中一个球员可以让球队胜场增至
55场），Dwyane Wade值14胜而Chris Bosh值13胜。将这个平均球队以这三位球
员取代后可以赢到76场吗？嗯哼，不会喔。这三位球员脚色会重叠，所以组在
一起时影响力会比单人时来的少。这是个普遍的概念。报酬递减的效果已在很
多篮球数据上被证明有解释力，尤以篮板最为显著。
Why does this matter? Adding more really good offensive players to an
already top level offense isn’t going to improve said offense as much
as these players’ talent would indicate. There are only so many
possessions to go around, and Redick and Dudley aren’t going to space
the floor that much more than last year’s wings. L.A. didn’t address
its biggest issue of frontcourt defense this offseason, instead opting
to pay a lot of money and assets for a slight offensive improvement.
This approach could be validated if Rivers’ defensive system is good
enough to cover up for the lack of rim protector, or if Jordan and/or
Griffin makes a miraculous jump. Right now though, the offseason is
looking less and less like a major success.
这很重要吗？再增加更多好的进攻球员到一个进攻能力快封顶的球队不会让这
支球队进步到这些球员所能表现的程度。球权就只有那么多，而Redick和Dudley
不会拉开比上一季侧翼球员更多的空间。洛杉矶快艇队并没有针对前场防守这
个大洞在休赛季做补强，反而付更多钱和资产来使进攻有些微进步。若Rivers
的防守体系好到掩盖禁区防守者的话，或Jordan和（或）Griffin奇蹟似的进步
的话，这个动作可能还有用。不过现在，这个休赛季看来越来越不像是个大跃
进。
原文网址－
http://tinyurl.com/mty98ul
心得：
这篇文章和自己的看法满相近的
快艇这季的补强现阶段都是针对自己失去的球员作些微的提升
翻开现在的阵容名单
去年最大的禁区防守问题还是在那边
也就是说今年快艇补强带有赌博性质
就是赌DJ和BG能开窍
能借由赛季最大的补强－Doc Rivers的防守体系补足这个洞
不过我自己觉得即使Doc真的让他们开窍了
禁区替补的防守和球员的健康也都是隐忧
上季的快艇比赛输球往往都是因为当机时无法有效的制止对方
BG本身的身高问题对于他防守不利
而DJ空有体能却往往只想火锅盖帽，反而失去防守位置或篮板卡位
这些防守意识和防守基础功夫的问题实在很难推断下一季能否被Doc给改造
此外，这次的后场补强偏攻击性质
防守上真的是不增反减
若快艇后场防守比去年差，前场防守又无法巩固的话
战绩说不定比去年还要惨
文中提到的现在NBA进攻型态正是大中锋类型转换的重点
三分球进攻的重要性提升，让防守优异的中锋在现今是不可或缺的存在
(但二连霸的热火靠的反而是后场补防怪物)
像火箭队DH、公牛队Noah、溜马队Hibbert、尼克队TC、灰熊队小Gasol...等等
巩固篮下让外线防守者不需要过度补防
这也让快艇的DJ定位...很模糊...既不是篮下的进攻发动者，也不是防守型中锋
充其量算是...灌篮表演型中锋吧
期待新赛季快艇在Doc带领下能有一番作为的人
可能要先期待DJ长出防守脑袋
(有任何翻译错误请麻烦指正喔)