这网站好像不能算新闻 我分类就用闲聊了
https://goo.gl/Y6Mziq
Google still doesn’t want to sell smartphones: Here’s why
2017年11月03日 作者 Bogdan Petrovan
For a company that now touts the virtues of closely-integrated AI, software, and
hardware, Google’s mobile platform started out pretty unintegrated.
作为一个现今整合软件硬件和AI的师爷级公司 谷歌的手机平台有些不整合
Beginning with the first Android phone, the 2008 T-Mobile G1, Google was happy t
o give manufacturers (and even carriers) ample control over user experience. In
hindsight it seems a bit suicidal, but it worked. A decade later, Android is eve
rywhere. 在2008年第一只安卓手机问世 当时的谷歌很乐意让制造商和电信商对用户体验有
完整的控制 现在回顾这看似自杀的行为确实奏效了 十年后 到处都是安卓
But the times, they are a’changin’. Google’s strategy of spreading Android fa
r and wide is approaching its limits. More importantly, the company is no longer
mobile-first; it’s now an AI-first company. And good AI — the kind that’s in
distinguishable from magic — requires tight integration with hardware, software
, and services. That’s why Google is now making its own line of devices it cont
rols top to bottom.
但现在他们在改变 推广安卓的策略接近极限了 更重要的 现在不再是手机优先而是AI优先
这需要软硬件和服务器紧密的整合 这也是为何谷歌开始自己做手机
Enter the Pixel 2 and Pixel 2 XL, two amazing phones Google doesn’t actually w
ant to sell in meaningfully large numbers.
Pixel 2和Pixel 2 XL 两只惊人的手机谷歌其实都不想卖太多
Google cannot be this bad at selling phones 谷歌不应该在卖手机上表现的这么糟糕
Google is arguably the biggest and most influential company in the world. It emp
loys tens of thousands of brilliant people who work on solving insanely complica
ted problems. Selling smartphones is not insanely complicated, so why is Google
so bad at it?
谷歌是全球最大最有影响力的公司 有着成千上万的优秀员工解决极为复杂的问题 但相较之
下卖手机并不是件太复杂的事 那为何谷歌在此表现得如此糟糕呢
Even by the most optimistic guesses, Google hasn’t sold enough original Pixels
to move the needle. According to comScore data from August, just 0.7 percent of
US smartphone subscribers use a Pixel. The graphic below speaks volumes. 就算乐
观的假设谷歌卖的Pixel还不够多到足以有显著的影响 根据comScore的资料 只有0.7%的美
国智慧型手机用户使用Pixel
https://i.imgur.com/3qXiVgA.jpg
You could say that 0.7 percent (or a few million units) is still respectable for
a device’s first year on the market, but this is Google, not OnePlus. And it l
ooks like the second year on the market won’t be much different, either.
你可能会说第一年有0.7%不错了 但这是谷歌不是一加 而且看来第二年也不会有太多改变
Sales of the Pixel 2 and Pixel 2 XL are held back by the same issues that hamper
ed the first generation of “Made by Google” smartphones:
Pixel2和Pixel2XL都被相同的问题所阻碍
They are expensive, especially considering that Google doesn’t need a big profi
t margin to sustain itself like most Android OEMs. Also, the Pixels’ pricing ru
ns against Google’s mission statement to bring Android to billions of new users
in developing countries, at least philosophically.
太贵了 尤其考量到谷歌不需要像其他OEM厂商一样获得巨大的获利来支撑自己 这也与谷歌
把安卓带给上亿个开发中国家的使用者的目的不符
Domestic availability is limited. Looking at the Google Store, many versions are
out of stock or shipping with delays of 3-5 weeks. Availability may be better t
han last year, but that’s a very low bar. Additionally, the Pixel are still onl
y available at Verizon. Surely, Google had the clout to make deals with more car
riers if it wanted to?
国内很难买到 Google Store要么缺货要么要等三到五周 是比去年好一些了 但还是很糟 而
且只有与Verizon合作 谷歌想要的话一定可以与更多电信商合作的
International availability is very limited. This is a perennial problem with Goo
gle products and services. The company seems to think most markets are simply no
t worth the hassle. 国际上也很难购买 这是谷歌产品和服务多年来的问题 谷歌看来似乎
觉得大多数的市场不值得他们麻烦
Their hardware barely stands out. There’s no headphone jack (don’t even bring
up microSD). There’s no striking hardware feature and the design of the Pixel 2
is dated. Is this the best product Google could come up with?
硬件没有突出的特色 没有耳机孔 没有SD卡槽 这是谷歌能做出来最棒的产品吗
All of these issues are the result of calculated decisions by Google. You could
come up with reasonable explanations for each of them, but it’s hard to believe
that Google couldn’t do a better job selling phones.
这些都是谷歌精打细算的决定 每个问题都能有合理的答案 但真的很难相信谷歌在卖手机这
件事上不能做得更好
This is no hobby 这不是个消遣
If we accept that Google is not grossly incompetent at selling smartphones, the
only reasonable explanation remaining is that Google doesn’t want to sell smart
phones in high volumes. But why?
如果我们接受谷歌并非没有能力卖手机 唯一合理的解释是谷歌不想卖太多手机 为什么呢
Is hardware just a “hobby” for Google? That’s hard to believe. Both Google CE
O Sundar Pichai and head of hardware Rick Osterloh have stated the company is se
rious about hardware, which they hope to turn into a meaningful revenue source w
ithin five years. Google made close to $90 billion in revenue in 2016, so when w
e say meaningful we’re talking about tens of millions of units sold.
难道投入硬件只是谷歌的消遣吗 这很难令人相信 谷歌的执行长和硬件部门的主管都表明对
硬件的态度很认真且希望五年内转化成意义重大的收益 谷歌在2016年赚了约九百亿 所以当
谈到"意义重大的收益"我们是在讲卖出上百万的量
Some embarrassing failures aside, Google has already taken some steps that sugge
st it actually is serious about hardware. It set up a unified hardware operation
(under Osterloh, former head of Motorola); it acquired a large part of HTC’s e
ngineering team; and it poured money into TV ads and other marketing activities.
Its hardware-related message in the past two years has been remarkably consiste
nt, which is a bit unusual for a company known for flip-flopping in other areas.
撇除一些尴尬的失败 谷歌已经采取一些行动表明他们在硬件上是玩真的 建立硬件部门 买
来许多宏达电的工程师 花钱买广告
两年来这些跟硬件有关的明显讯息并不像是在其他领域当儿戏
With friends like these… 有着这些伙伴
Why is Google pouring money into smartphones, but deliberately holding back when
it comes to selling them? For a clue, we can take a look at a recent survey of
global market share by IDC.
为何谷歌花钱在手机上 但卖手机时却有些保守呢 从IDC的全球市占调查中能探出端倪
https://i.imgur.com/OeQiOeM.jpg
Out of the top five smartphone sellers right now, Google has no one on which to
rely for achieving its vision of “AI + software + hardware.” Leaving out Appl
e for obvious reasons, we’re left with:
前五个厂商中没有一个能够和谷歌合作达成"AI+软件+硬件"的目标 先撇除苹果 来看看剩下
那些公司
Samsung – A hugely resourceful and rich company. It has ample control over the
way people experience Android and seems to desire ridding itself of Google’s co
ntrol.
三星—一个有钱有资源的公司 它对使用者体验有着完全的控制 而且渴望甩开谷歌的控制
Huawei – Samsung 2.0 in the making.
华为— 正在成长的三星2.0
Oppo and Vivo – They’re owned by the same corporation (BBK Electronics) and fo
cused on China and developing markets; these two players care about high volumes
only. That means a focus on iPhone-like designs and increasingly extreme beauti
fication modes, rather than AI and tight integration with Google.
Oppo和Vivo 都是步步高集团的子公司且专注于中国跟开发中国家 这两位都只重视销售量
着重于类似iPhone的外观以及日益极端的美化模式而不是AI或是和谷歌紧密合作
Together, Samsung, Huawei, and BBK account for almost half of all Android smartp
hones sold right now. Google can’t count on any of them in the long term.
三星华为和步步高持有近半数的安卓市场
谷歌无法与他们长期合作
LG, Xiaomi, and a few others have a shot at entering top five, but when you lose
money quarter after quarter, you’re in no position to shape the ecosystem. Eve
ryone else is too small to count.
乐金 小米以及其他人有机会挤进前五 但当一季又一季的亏损 便无法塑造生态系
其他公司都太弱小 不可靠
Now is not the moment 现在还不是时候
Put yourself in Sundar Pichai’s shoes for a moment. You know that smartphones h
ave reached a plateau and all the big improvements will come from AI goingforwa
rd. You need to find ways to put AI at the heart of every smartphone. Here’s th
e problem: you can’t trust your most successful partners, and the small ones ar
e barely making ends meet.
试着以执行长的角度想想 你知道手机市场正接近一个高原 而AI将会是向前的一大步
你需要想办法把AI放入每个手机的核心 问题来了：你无法相信最成功的伙伴们 而小伙伴们
都入不敷出
So, what do you do? You start making your own smartphones and try not to destroy
everything that you’ve built so far.
那你该做什么 你开始自己做手机并试着不要摧毁你至今的成果
Google created its own smartphone lineup to further its greater agenda. The Pixe
l line pushes less cooperative OEMs, and inspires friendly ones, to follow its p
ath by shaping the public perception of what Android smartphones should be. If a
ll else fails, Google could even go nuclear and tackle Apple and Samsung head-on
.
谷歌创造自己的生产线 Pixel推开了合作意愿低落的OEM商并与友善的厂商合作 意图让大众
知道安卓手机该有的样子 如果失败了 至少谷歌也给苹果和三星带来很大的压力
Google definitely needs to be a competitive smartphone maker, but it doesn’t ne
ed (or want) to be a competitive smartphone seller —at least not for now.?
谷歌现阶段需要成为有竞争力的制造者但不是有竞争力销售者
Google doesn’t want to anger or alienate Samsung even more. It happened before
with the Motorola acquisition. In 2014, Google was reportedly so “dismayed” wi
th Samsung’s efforts to alter the Android experience, that the two companies ha
d to sit down for peace talks. Soon after, Google offloaded Motorola to Lenovo.
Not much has changed since then. Samsung has lost some market share, but it’s s
till the most influential Android phone maker out there. Its homegrown Tizen OS
is ready and waiting.
谷歌不想再惹毛三星(这段看不太懂QQ 推文有好心人补充了)
Google also doesn’t want to weaken the platform it worked so hard to create and
maintain. With so many Android OEMs already struggling to make money, the arriv
al of a strong new player could precipitate a wave of exits and consolidation. T
his could give Samsung and Huawei a stronger bargaining position and Apple even
more market share.
谷歌也不想弱化其努力创造与维持的平台
当许多OEM已经很挣扎的赚钱 多一个强壮的选手可能会带来市场大震动 这会让三星和华为
有更大的话语权 也会使苹果有更多市占
Selling smartphones is a means, not an end. Google won’t turn itself into a hig
h-volume smartphone maker if it can be avoided. It’s a complicated, labor-inten
sive, and highly competitive industry that’s spiraling into commoditization. W
hat Google really wants is to keep doing what’s worked so well until now: contr
ol the platform and let others worry about supply chains.
卖手机是手段而不是目的 谷歌尽量避免自己成为大制造商 这是个复杂的产业 谷歌真正想
要的是维持现况： 控制平台 让其他打工仔去担心供应链
https://i.imgur.com/qvPXUQF.jpg
Five years from now 五年后
Speak softly and carry a big stick, says the old adage. The Pixel line is the st
ick that Google will use when all else fails, at the risk of damaging a platform
that was built over a decade of soft speaking.
俗话说拿着棒子轻声细语(中文有对应的谚语吗) Pixel是个一切都失败了的时候的棒子 有
可能伤害谷歌十几年来打造的平台
The beauty of the stick is you don’t need to use it, you just need to be seen c
arrying it around. Google doesn’t need to sell a bunch of Pixels in order to ma
ke a point. But that doesn’t mean it won’t, if it comes down to it.
棒子的美妙之处在于不需要使用他 只需要拿着到处晃就好了 谷歌不需要卖很多Pixel 但不
代表当情况变糟时他没有能力这么做
The worst-case scenario for Google is to become a “real” smartphone maker who
competes in earnest not only with Apple, but also with Samsung, Huawei, and all
the other Android OEMs. If that happens, the next five years could be very turbu
lent in the Android world. A conflict with Samsung would be inevitable, as the K
orean giant would fight back against Google’s encroachment on its hardware turf
. The entire ecosystem could become less diverse, as small players get bought ou
t or simply shut down. Competitors like Amazon or Microsoft could try to swoop b
ack in and offer a tempting alternative to Google’s mobile and AI platforms.
最糟的剧本是谷歌成为真正的手机制造商 需要与苹果三星华为以及其他OEM竞争 如果发生
了 未来五年安卓世界将会波涛汹涌
必然会与三星有激烈的竞争 韩国巨人也会以谷歌侵犯他的硬件专利做出反击 整个生态系的
多样性将会下降 小公司会被收购或直接裁撤 其他竞争者如亚马逊和微软将会乘虚而入
In the best-case scenario, the current model is perpetuated. That means Google m
anages to convince OEMs to follow its lead and work diligently to add Google-pow
ered AI to all of their products. If that happens, I doubt Pixel phones will eve
n be a thing five years from now. At best, they’ll be a boutique brand kept ali
ve just to remind OEMs that Google is always capable of taking things into its o
wn hands.
最好的剧本是维持现状 这代表谷歌会说服OEM厂们跟随他的领导 把谷歌创造的AI植入他们
的每一个产品之中 如果成功了我怀疑Pixel未来五年是否还会继续存在 最好的方法是保持P
ixel的存在 警告打工仔们老大是有能力自己跳下来干的
Whether Google becomes a mass-market smartphone maker or not, one thing is clear
– Google is dead serious about becoming the preeminent AI company, even if tha
t means undermining Android in the process.
不论谷歌是否成为主流厂商 有一件事十分明确 谷歌非常像成为超群的AI公司 即使这代表
著在过程中毁了安卓
呼~第一次翻译这么长的文章 这大概是平常英文阅读测验的好几倍的量
如有错误欢迎指正!