TSMC Overtakes Samsung in FinFET
FinFET制程竞赛　台积电超车三星
Despite rivalry, both lag behind Intel
TAIPEI, Taiwan — TSMC, which has more than half the global foundry business, has overtaken Samsung in the FinFET race to commercial production that the South Korean company was leading this year, according to industry analysts. Both companies lag Intel, which is making FinFET chips internally.
产业分析师表示，在全球晶圆代工市场占有率超过五成的台积电(TSMC)，今年在FinFETs程商业化量产的竞赛上已经胜过韩国三星(Samsung)；不过这两家公司还是落后生产FinFET芯片供应自家使用的英特尔(Intel)。
"Recent developments suggest TSMC has taken the lead over Samsung at developing [16/14nm] FinFET manufacturing technology," Mehdi Hosseini, a San Francisco analyst who covers TSMC and Samsung for Susquehanna Financial analyst, said in an Oct. 1 report.
美国旧金山Susquehanna Financial分析师Mehdi Hosseini在一份最近发布的报告中指出：“近期发展显示台积电已经在开发16/14奈米FinFET制程的脚步上超越了三星。”Hosseini表示，来自产业界人士的消息指出，三星的14奈米FinFET制程研发出现延宕，而台积电的16奈米FinFET制程试产则获得目标客户越来越多的信心。
Checks with industry experts suggest Samsung's foundry has experienced a setback with its 14nm FinFET project, while TSMC's 16nm pilot line is gaining incremental confidence among prospective customers, Hosseini said in the report. TSMC and Samsung are in a tight race to provide FinFET products to their biggest customers, Apple and Qualcomm, each of which aims to offer improved performance and lower power consumption in smartphones with the higher-density chips. However, the development of 3D-structured
FinFETs has been fraught with difficulty for the two companies.
台积电与三星争相为供应大客户如苹果(Apple)、高通(Qualcomm)所需，而积极开发FinFET制程技术；两家公司的目标都是改善智慧型手机用高密度芯片的性能、同时降低功耗。不过开发3D结构的FinFET电晶体技术，也让两家公司都遇到了不少困难。
On Sept. 25, HiSilicon, China's largest fabless company, announced FinFET samples for an ARM-based networking processor manufactured on TSMC's 16nm pilot line. Hosseini said the node will enter mass production in the second half of 2015 at the earliest.
9月25日，中国无晶圆厂IC设计龙头海思(HiSilicon)宣布，已开始推出由台积电16奈米FinFET试产线制造的ARM核心网络处理器样品；而Hosseini则表示，台积电最早将在2015年第二季开始量产该制程节点技术。
Carlos Peng, an analyst with Fubon Securities in Taipei, says FinFET chips will account for a "high single-digit percentage" of TSMC's revenue by the third quarter of 2015. Initially, TSMC's main customers for the new process technology will be Apple and HiSilicon, followed by Qualcomm, MediaTek, Xilinx, and Altera later in 2015. Apple may choose TSMC to make the A9 processor with FinFET technology.
台北富邦投顾(Fubon Securities)分析师彭国维(Carlos Peng)表示，FiFET制程芯片将在2015年第三季在台积电营收中占据“高个位数字”比例；第一批采用该新制程技术的台积电主要客户，将包括苹果、海思，以及高通、联发科(Media)、Xilinx与Altera。他并预期苹果将会委托台积电以FinFET技术生产A9处理器。
"Though Samsung indicates it will begin volume production of 20nm and FinFET at the end of 2014, the yield rate remains low as of the end of 3Q14 as the company is struggling to overcome a steep learning curve," Peng said in a Sept. 25 report. "Meaningful FinFET equipment pull-in for TSMC is likely in early fourth quarter 2014, which also implies potential volume production in the second quarter of 2015, one quarter ahead of schedule, meaning there may be potential for an upside surprise in the first
half of 2015." TSMC's lead in the development of fan-out packaging may give the company an advantage in commercial production.
“虽然三星表示将在2014年底开始量产20奈米FinFET制程，但其良率看来到第三季末仍然偏低，因为该公司仍在克服陡峭的学习曲线；”彭国维在9月25日发表的一篇报告中指出：“台积电可能会在2014年第四季初展开具意义的FinFET设备导入，这意味着可能在2015年第二季就开始量产，比预定时间提早一季。”
"We expect the combination of FinFET and fan-out to drive performance improvement among high-end logic products and ensure TSMC's market position for at least the next two to three years, especially as Samsung will require another one and a half to two years to develop its own fan-out technology, and another year to tape out the new integration products," Peng said.
彭国维并指出，台积电所领导开发的扇出式(fan-out)封装技术，也会为该公司的新制程量产带来优势：“我们预期结合FinFET与扇出式封装，将可改善高阶逻辑芯片产品的性能，进一步巩固台积电在接下来两至三年的市场地位；至于三星可能还需要花一至两年开发自有扇出式技术，还得再花一年投片试产采用新一代整合制程的产品。”
Double patterning and leakage have been tough for Samsung to overcome, since the company's 28nm technology still lags TSMC by one year, he said. The technology gap impacts the schedule for Samsung's 20nm/14nm FinFETs. TSMC may need to revise a prediction chairman Morris Chang made in July: "In 16-nanometer, TSMC will have a smaller market share than a major competitor in 2015." At that time, Chang said FinFET technology will have wide application in baseband, application processors, consumer SoCs, GPUs,
network processors, FPGAs, and CPUs.
Elizabeth Sun, a TSMC spokesperson, would not comment further, citing a quiet period leading up to the company's third-quarter earnings announcement Oct. 16.
据彭国维表示，因为双重曝光(Double patterning)以及电流泄漏问题，让三星的28奈米制程技术仍落后台积电一年，此技术差距影响了三星的20/14奈米FinFET时程；因此台积电可能有机会扭转总裁张忠谋在7月时的说法：“台积电2015年在16奈米节点的市占率会小于主要竞争对手。”对此台积电发言人表示，该公司因财报发布前的缄默期不便评论。
According to analysts surveyed by EE Times, TSMC may have won a skirmish against Samsung and manufacturing partner Global Foundries, which Apple and Qualcomm have supported in order to pare TSMC's strong pricing power. "Essentially, the concept of a leading edge 'second source' for TSMC has been non-existent for nearly three years," HSBC analyst Stephen Pelayo said in a June report. "Qualcomm (TSMC's largest customer, representing 22% of revenue in 2013), has aimed to work more closely with almost every
other foundry."
产业分析师的看法是，台积电可能已经小胜三星以及另一家晶圆代工厂GlobalFoundries；为了削弱台积电强大的定价能力，苹果与高通都有支持第二家代工伙伴。“基本上，做为台积电先进制程“第二供应来源”的概念已经消失近三年；”HSBC分析师Stephen Pelayo在一份6月发表的报告中表示：“高通的目标就是与其他每一家代工业者更密切合作。”
Still, Apple is ramping up aggressively with TSMC this year, Pelayo said. Apple's apps processor business alone could account for approximately 10% of TSMC's revenue this year, or nearly $2.4 billion, compared with nothing last year. Nevertheless, TSMC's customers may be skittish about betting on a still unproven process technology.
而Pelayo指出，苹果会在今年继续积极委托台积电生产应用处理器芯片，光是该业务可能就贡献台积电今年度营收近10%，规模达24亿美元。不过台积电的其他客户对于还未经实证的新制程技术，可能还会抱持观望态度。
BNP Paribas analyst Szeho Ng said in a Sept. 19 report: "It may be hard for Apple to aggressively switch to FinFET in 2015 if it keeps to its cadence of a product refresh in the third quarter every year, and there is uncertainty about Apple's genuine interest in FinFET mass production in 2015."
BNP Paribas分析师Szeho Ng则在9月19日发表的报告指出：“若苹果继续保持每年第三季推出新一代产品的步伐，对该公司来说要在2015年大举转向FinFET制程可能有困难，而且也不确定苹果是否真的有兴趣在2015年量产FinFET芯片。”
Peng said in a July report: "We believe Apple abandoned the latest FinFET technology and maintained the 20nm design for its A9 processor due to concerns about low yield rates." TSMC is the only foundry that can integrate fan-out for application processors and mobile RAM, he said, so Apple's A9 and upcoming high-end application processors will follow this trend over the next two years.
富邦投顾彭国维在7月份发表的报告中则表示：“我们认为因为良率考量，苹果在A9处理器会放弃最新的FinFET技术，维持采用20奈米制程设计。”他指出，台积电目前是唯一能以扇出式封装整合应用处理器与行动内存的晶圆代工厂，因此苹果的A9处理器以及之后的高阶应用处理器，会在接下来两年都依循该发展趋势。
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1324211&print=yes
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台积电在晶圆代工领域的统治地位 的确十分强大
如文中所述 已经三年找不到能打的对手了
but 这个最厉害的but
三星在过去几年晶圆代工领域的投资金额及研发速度
一点都不像来观光玩玩
过去在半买半相送及苹果的大笔订单培养之下
在未来几年会是台积电的最大竞争者
实际上 在晶圆代工领域三星也已经排老二了