之前聊过台湾在东亚海运上的枢纽地位，今天来聊聊航空与晶圆产业以及未来中国暴走（俄
罗斯已经暴走了）的对应思考吧！
这次我是直接引用我自己在某个副业中提出的报告，在把敏感的部份及牵扯到版权的部份删
除之后，放来这里分享；所以后面大部分都是我的台式英语，我也懒得再改写成中文，就请
各位包含见谅。
关于航空货运的部份：
From following web site:
https://aci.aero/2023/04/05/international-travel-returns-top-10-busiest-airports
-in-the-world-revealed/
https://reurl.cc/OvoWD7
If we check international freight:
https://i.imgur.com/ZSvnjoT.png
In top 10, APAC has 6 (HKG, ICN, PVG, TPE, NRT, SIN), North America has 2 (ANC,
MIA), EU has 1 (FRA), Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and Africa (MEISA) has 1
(DOH).
ANC is mainly for shipments from/to APAC (including as transit). MIA is mainly f
or shipments from/to EU, LAC and MEISA. So we can see how busy the air traffic
is between US and APAC.
If domestic volumes are added, here is the top 10; and APAC has 5 (HKG, PVG, ICN
, TPE, NRT), North America has 5 (MEM, ANC, SDF, MIA, LAX), too. None of them is
from EU and MEISA.
https://i.imgur.com/gatdUqe.png
MEM is main hub for FedEx. Meanwhile, SDF is main hub for UPS. Comparing with
2021, all airports are losing volumes in international shipments. If we check to
tal volumes, only SDF has growth from 2021 to 2022. I believe it's contributed b
y UPS.
If we compare with volume in 2019, Only China and Germany got hit because Europe
an Union has solid connection at business with China. If China got hit, Germany,
as key member in EU, would be impacted negatively, too. All other APAC countrie
s and MEISA got growth. United States lost volumes from MEM but gained from ANC,
SDF, MIA and LAX, so US is still on positive side.
再来是晶圆产业：
Basically, chips are shipped via air freight, so FedEx, United Parcel Service (U
PS), DHL, All Nippon Airways (ANA), EVA Air (EVA) and Korea Air Lines (KAL) domi
nates the market.
1. Global chips made from countries until the end of 2019:
Above 45 nm (legacy)
United States: 9%
China: 23%
Taiwan: 31%
South Korea: 10%
Japan: 13%
Europe (including EU and non-EU): 6%
Others (including Russia, India, Singapore, Thailand, North Korea and so on):
7%
28-45 nm
United States: 6%
China: 19%
Taiwan: 47%
South Korea: 6%
Japan: 5%
Europe: 4%
Others: 13%
10-22 nm
United States: 43%
China: 3%
Taiwan: 28%
South Korea: 5%
Japan: 0%
Europe: 12%
Others: 9%
Below 10nm (advanced)
United States: 0%
China: 0%
Taiwan: 92%
South Korea: 8%
Japan: 0%
Europe: 0%
Others: 0%
2. Foundry share until April 2023 (Total: 27.3 billion USD):
TSMC (Taiwan): 60.1%
Samsung (South Korea): 12.4%
Global Foundry (United States): 6.6%
UMC (Taiwan): 6.4%
SMIC (China): 5.3%
Others (including Intel, Texas Instrument, Sony, Panasonic and so on): 9.2%
3. Countries and companies producing materials and instruments for semiconductor
industry:
Divided by countries and regions:
Japan: 48%
Taiwan: 16%
South Korea: 13%
Middle East, Indian subcontinent, Africa: 10%
United States: 9%
China: 3%
Others (including Russia, South East Asia, South America and so on): 1%
Divided by companies and corporations:
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. (Japan): 29%
SUMCO (Silicon United Manufacturing Corporation and Sumitomo Mitsubishi Silico
n Corporation) Corp. (Japan): 22%
GlobalWafers (Taiwan): 20%
Siltronic AG (Germany): 15%
SK (Sunkyong) Siltron (South Korea): 10%
Others (including ASML, Siemens, Nikon and so on): 4%
4. Ranking of chip design (fabless) companies until the end of 2022:
Qualcomm (United States): 23.2%
Broadcom Inc. (United States): 20.9%
Nvidia (United States): 17.5%
AMD (United States): 16.5%
MediaTek (Taiwan): 10.2%
Marvell Technology (United States): 4.3%
Novatek Microelectronics (Taiwan): 2.1%
Realtek Semiconductor (Taiwan): 2.0%
Cirrus Logic (United States): 1.7%
Will Semiconductor (China): 1.6%
从这里，各位看倌应该都发现了，在之前介绍的海运之外，整个东亚目前基本上已经掌握全
球科技与经济的咽喉。在上述的状态之下，因为晶圆等高科技产品基本上都是依赖空运，而
全球前十大国际空运机场中，亚洲就直接占掉六个，美国占掉两个，欧洲只有一个。不论怎
么看，欧洲对国际的影响力实际上是明显在衰退的状态。
如果算进去国内运输的前十名机场，那变成亚洲占五个，美国再占五个，而安哥拉治国际机
场，基本上可以直接视为东亚的航路转运入口，等于说东亚出事全球重伤。
更不要说目前各国需要的先进芯片，基本上都是靠台日韩三国跟美国在养。
当我可以放出这份报告时，美国政府想当然尔有能力自力得到类似的结论。
而在中国经济逐渐衰退，全球一样进入萧条之下，中国在还有残存国力之下穷兵黩武，甚至
不计成本发动高损失的战争，来保卫习近平个人利益也是非常可以预料的发展。
美国现在在俄罗斯暴走之下，还要面对未来高机率的中国暴走，自然跟过去不一样，必须让
亚太盟国得到充分的军事资源来吓阻，甚至击退意图侵略的中国解放军。
另外，虽然中国动用核子武器的机率不高，但是美国的核保护伞必须非常坚定；否则会看到
亚太盟邦不理会欧美的压力，直接建立自己的核反击能量。这样之下，会直接削弱美国的美
元优势，这也是美国不乐见的演进。
另外，附加上一个关于M10 MPF的影片：
https://youtu.be/VJQp5wQSFsY
这个影片有说到美军在乌俄战争及可能的中国暴走之下，军事发展的变化。
而在中国的科技进化之下，A-10已经无法对应未来在中国军事暴走之下运作。必须要有虽然
无法当矛头，但是可以提供即时强大支援直射火力的M10来让美军轻步兵有自己的直属“战
场都更火力”。这个是在目前M1A2/A3几乎都在装甲单位之下，步兵（含陆战队）在海外及
时部署时非常需要的装备。也就是说，从过去大家赚大钱，已经进入在可控损失之下，压抑
中国让东亚尽量能保持攸关全球的产品输出及高科技相关国际贸易。
至于影片中的M10运用，相信下过步兵营基地的应该很熟悉，就是把M10当作后方火力支援，
而不是伴随步兵冲锋。
在我服役时，就是步兵师战车连主要的任务，只是美国是更充足的M10数量及火力支援。台
湾当然不可能马上会有M10，但是跟着相同的思维，砲猫的需求就会非常明确跟急迫。
别忘了，对战场上的我方及敌方，这种直射战车砲火力，在心理上有着非常大的影响。
周末嘴砲结束。