前言：其实单纯只是想看ISW现在对乌克兰的摘要，
不过首页就有这篇，3/13/2023发布的
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/coalition-defense-taiwan
报告有26页，摘要大意如下，分享给大家集思广益
连结
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Chinas-Three-Roads-to-
Controlling-Taiwan.pdf?x91208
缩址：https://tinyurl.com/2oxlsxpw
本篇提供了ISW及AEI的合作 - 关于台湾联合防卫相关的研究文件及资源汇整
本计画主要研究美国及盟友对于防阻中共进犯台湾，
及若必要时击败人民解放军的多项策略，并于接续两年持续分析相关的更新资料，
做为应对及决策参考
(意即会随时势变化持续更新相互应对的方式来提供建言)
研究主要目标源自于三个关键问题
1.中共如何威胁台湾
2.以美国为首的阵线如何最有效的防阻、对抗或击败中国
3.美国应如何有效地组成所需的联合防卫阵线
中国控制台湾的三条路
中国寻求通过三种截然不同但又相互关联的战略，
获得对台湾的完全控制：强力说服、胁迫和强迫。
美国政策侧重于第三项"强迫战略"(推想所指为诉诸直接武力)，
而应对中国所采取强力说服和胁迫战略的政策相形被边缘化了，
中国更有可能通过此两者(指强力说服和胁迫)或某种强制形式实现其目标，
例如封锁该岛，而非两栖入侵。
美方更应重新思考对台湾的防卫，以期能阻断中国通向胜利的这三条路，
其余内容请点入报告，谈论到的层面相当广，
为免翻译不佳造成误解，也不多站版面就不引入了。
其实担心全文不易读的，使用翻译大概也可以有所概念。
以下为个人解读
美方着重在军事上威慑，希望达到遏制中共勿轻易动武的目的，
但在"反强力说服"及"反胁迫"的应对反遭边缘化，
例如经济上台湾与中国的磁吸效应如何解决，
中国透过各种角度软牵制台湾，渗透军方、扶植民间发声筒、
经济、外交打压等等各项手段，
美方却缺乏有效的反制策略，
当然从这角度也许军武点跟本版不是直接相关，
但所谓攻心为上，入侵其实是进行式
让台湾人本身麻痺了或是缺乏意识，使得软手段有机可乘，也是一种攻击手段，
往往使得防卫心容易松懈，简单来说温水煮青蛙，就是一个例子。
攻心也是一种军武手段，还没有发动实质的兵力，攻心已持续不间断
进一步来说，欧美各国咸认台湾人自身没有足够防卫决心，
相对乌克兰因遭受过痛楚，即使被强力入侵，仍能凝聚高度共识反打并持续抵抗，
是否就如同作者所言，太关注硬拳头，所以中共从未放弃试图找到突破口，
一举就能够让台湾防卫(心)崩溃，进而控制台湾，这是作者提出所忧心之处。
所谓极权，或许可以解释成"穷极各种手段维护控制权"，
若没有做好"对方会出令人意想不到，或者完全没思考到某个举动背后隐藏的深意"，
这样的心理准备去面对，当真的发生让台湾人民惊呆了的意外状况，
那还真的是一点都不令人意外了。
补充：
中俄在世界注目之下仍选择携手结盟，世界恐将进行一场两极的对抗，
纵观过去一百年的历史，一战打了4年，二战打了6年，
但是美苏冷战打了近五十年，
约莫30个年头去，似乎又有了新型态的延续，
人类历史就是一部战争史，唉，这话说的真是到位啊~
COALITION DEFENSE OF TAIWAN
Mar 13, 2023 - Press ISW
This page collects links to products and other resources related to the
Coalition Defense of Taiwan, a new collaboration between the Institute for
the Study of War (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Research
Director Stephen Gailliot and ISW Senior Fellow Matthew McInnis join the AEI
Senior Fellows Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan leading this project.
The Coalition Defense of Taiwan project will examine alternative strategies
for the United States and its allies to deter The Chinese Communist Party’s
(CCP) aggression and, if necessary, defeat the People’s Liberation Army
(PLA). The initiative will assess Chinese campaigns against Taiwan and
produce ongoing analysis over the next two years through essays, op-eds,
analytical graphics, and strategic assessment reports, which will make
recommendations for policymakers to address this major challenge.
The project uniquely combines ISW and AEI’s Asia expertise and the planning
exercise methodology used by America’s military (known as PLANEX) to analyze
problems at the strategic and operational levels. [Find information on ISW’s
past planning exercises here.]
The Coalition Defense of Taiwan project leverages ISW's proven capabilities
in open-source intelligence analysis. ISW’s China Analytic Team, consisting
of Nils Peterson and Virginia Wang, and our Public Interest Fellow Roy Eakin,
contribute assessments to this effort alongside AEI’s research team.
Download the one-pager.
The goal of the Coalition Defense of Taiwan is to answer three key questions:
1. How does China threaten Taiwan?
Our project examines China’s patterns of coercive behavior to identify
thresholds for the use of force. By analyzing CCP coercive campaigns, we will
expose attempts to split a US-led regional alliance.
2. How could a US-led coalition best deter, counter, or defeat China?
Our project will identify the CCP’s most likely courses of action. We will
use probable CCP courses of action to test and recommend US-led coalition
responses.
3. How can the United States form a coalition optimized for deterrence and
warfighting?
We will evaluate the interests and capabilities of potential partners to
create an effective coalition. Our reports will identify coalition courses of
action that could deter the CCP and defeat PLA invasion scenarios.
China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan
March 13, 2023
Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan
Key Points:
China seeks to gain full control of Taiwan through three distinct but
interrelated campaigns: forceful persuasion, coercion, and compellence.
American policy’s focus on compellence marginalizes strategies that counter
China’s persuasion and coercion campaigns.
China is more likely to achieve its goals through persuasion and coercion or
a form of compellence, such as a blockade of the island, short of an
amphibious invasion.
The US must urgently rethink its defense of Taiwan so that it blocks all
three roads to Chinese victory.