Nikola Topic is a projected top 10 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He is a 6’6, 200
pound guard out of Serbia currently averaging near MVP level stats in the ABA.
I’m going to briefly discuss his stats and then introduce some reasons why I th
ink he has a chance to be great in the NBA. He’s averaging 20/7.5/3.6 per 36 on
>60% TS with an extremely high 66% 2p and 84% FT. His rim attempts and finishin
g in the halfcourt are outliers. He will have the highest projected 2p% out of a
ny primary playmaker we have on record. Players this productive and efficient at
this age in a legitimate professional league rarely bust.
An elite offensive engine in the NBA has 3 major qualities: high usage, elite ef
ficiency, and elite playmaking. Topic demonstrates all 3 of these qualities as w
ell as any guard prospect in recent memory. The most recent breakout star in the
NBA is Tyrese Haliburton. He had a similar statistical profile as a sophomore i
n college, 65% TS, 6.5 assists per 36, 20% usage (Topic is currently 25% or so).
Tyrese was a great 3 point shooter whereas Topic is far more dominant inside th
e arc. The intersection of these qualities are actually quite rare in guard pros
pects. This archetype of player has the highest potential offensively. EPM has T
yrese Haliburton as a +8 per 100 offensive player this season.
One of the prospects Topic gets compared to is Luka Doncic. The comparison is ma
de because they are both European prodigies with exceptional production in pro l
eagues at a very young age. There have been very few european guards with better
production at age 18 than Topic. Luka is perhaps the only one, and only because
he had the chance to demonstrate it in a more difficult Euroleague where he ear
ned MVP honors.
Luka’s playmaking in the NBA has been incredible. His vision leaves you thinkin
g he is a basketball genius. I think Nikola Topic's genius is comparable. His as
sist numbers, while elite, don’t really do his playmaking justice.
Here are the main reasons I like Topic as a prospect:
1) He is elite in transition. When evaluating offensive engines, you need to eva
luate their impact on the half court game and their impact on the transition gam
e. Luka is an example of someone who has a massive positive impact on the half c
ourt game but a negative impact in transition. Topic projects to be elite at bot
h. People will claim that Topic's athleticism is weak for the NBA, but I think h
is speed as a 6'6 ball handler is elite. He's so much faster with the ball than
a Cade Cunningham.
2) He is unselfish. What do I mean by selfish?
There is a tension, peculiar to basketball, between the interests of the team an
d the interests of the individual. The game continually tempts the people who pl
ay it to do things that are not in the interest of the group. On the baseball fi
eld, it would be hard for a player to sacrifice his team’s interest for his own
. Baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team one: by doing what’s b
est for himself, the player nearly always also does what is best for his team.
“There is no way to selfishly get across home plate,” as Morey puts it. “If i
nstead of there being a lineup, I could muscle my way to the plate and hit every
single time and damage the efficiency of the team — that would be the analogy.
Manny Ramirez can’t take at-bats away from David Ortiz. We had a point guard i
n Boston who refused to pass the ball to a certain guy.” In football the coach
has so much control over who gets the ball that selfishness winds up being self-
defeating. The players most famous for being selfish — the Dallas Cowboys’ wid
e receiver Terrell Owens, for instance — are usually not so much selfish as att
ention seeking. Their sins tend to occur off the field. It is in basketball wher
e the problems are most likely to be in the game — where the player, in his pla
y, faces choices between maximizing his own perceived self-interest and winning.
The choices are sufficiently complex that there is a fair chance he doesn’t fu
lly grasp that he is making them. <!
Nikola Jokic is peak unselfish. He does not care who gets the counting stats, he
only cares about the team outcome. From watching Nikola Topic play, I think he
has been influenced by Jokic. He doesn't force bad shots to benefit his own coun
ting stats. He is always searching for the best team outcome without regard to h
is own statistics. This is my opinion having watched many full games of him.
3) He is fearless attacking the rim and embraces contact. There are so many play
ers with the tools to get to the rim but lack the ambition and heart to attack f
earlessly. He is not afraid to make mistakes or hit the deck. With his size, rim
touch, and free throw shooting, it's likely he will generate a lot of offensive
value here in the NBA.
4) He has, in my opinion, the optimal offensive playstyle. Rarely takes middies
unless late in the clock. Is searching for rim attempts, rim assists, and open 3
s. Perfect for the modern NBA. He pushes the ball in transition. As someone with
a background in statistics, probability, risk, and game theory, I am very much
interested in what is optimal. I can't help but to be impressed with his decisio
n making. One of the underrated characteristics of a prospect is playstyle. It's
actually very hard to coach playstyle. It's so much better to take a player who
's playstyle is already aligned with optimal offensive strategy. Good luck chang
ing Jalen Hood Schifino's midrange heavy playstyle to be more of a rim attacker.
It's not in his basketball personality.
5) He never bitches to the refs. I don’t know if this really matters, but it’s
something I notice. When he gets mauled and doesn’t get a whistle, he just pic
ks himself up and continues playing. This is evidence of a very strong mental ga
me. He also rarely celebrates. Jobs not finished. Topic’s father was a sharpsho
oting PF for the national team and (according to many youtube comments) is rever
ed among Serbian fans for his class and poise as a player.
6) He owns the point guard position. For an 18 year old to have the confidence a
nd poise he does in a professional league projects well. He’s always playing at
his own pace. Mega MIS plays a beautiful brand of team basketball that he has s
eamlessly fit in and help orchestrate.
7) He’s got great chemistry with his bigs in the pick and roll. He’s turning t
hese bigs into Serbian Amare Stoudemires. If he gets picked by a team with an el
ite big, they will be an elite duo. I'm actually going to be shocked if the Spur
s pass on him, regardless of which pick they have.
8) You can’t teach creativity. He has it.
Just wanted to get my thoughts down as I've done a deep dive watching a ton of h
is games online. Let me know what you think!
您好！根据您提供的资讯，我整理了Nikola Topic这位预计在2024年NBA选秀中前十顺位被
选中的球员的重点：
1. **统计数据**：Topic作为一名来自塞尔维亚的后卫，身高6英尺6寸，体重200磅，在ABA
联赛中的表现接近MVP水平。他每36分钟的平均数据为20分/7.5篮板/3.6助攻，真实投篮命
中率超过60%，2分球命中率高达66%，罚球命中率为84%。
2. **场上表现**：他在半场进攻中的上篮尝试和完成率是异常突出的，预计他将拥有记录
中任何主要控球手最高的2分球命中率。在正规职业联赛中，像他这样年轻且高效的球员很
少会失败。
3. **NBA潜力**：一名优秀的NBA进攻引擎拥有三大特质：高使用率、顶级效率和出色的组
织能力。Topic在这三个方面的表现与近年来的任何后卫新秀不相上下。最近的NBA明星球员
Tyrese Haliburton在大学二年级时有着类似的统计数据，真实投篮命中率为65%，每36分钟
助攻6.5次，使用率为20%（Topic目前约为25%）。
4. **与Luka Doncic的比较**：Topic与Luka Doncic的比较是因为他们都是在年轻时就在职
业联赛中展现出卓越的欧洲新星。在18岁时，很少有欧洲后卫能有比Topic更好的表现。Don
cic之所以能与之相提并论，是因为他在更具挑战性的欧洲联赛中获得了MVP荣誉。
5. **球场智慧**：Topic的助攻数字虽然出色，但并不能完全反映他的组织能力。他的球场
视野和智慧可与Doncic相媲美。
以下是您认为Topic作为新秀有潜力的主要原因：
- **过渡进攻**：他在过渡进攻中表现出色。在评估进攻引擎时，需要考虑他们对半场进攻
和过渡进攻的影响。Topic在这两方面都预计将表现出色。
- **无私**：Topic展现了无私的球风，他不会为了个人数据而强行出手，而是总是寻找对
球队最有利的进攻选择。
- **勇于突破**：他在攻击篮筐时无所畏惧，拥抱身体接触。他的身材、篮下触感和罚球命
中率，很可能在NBA中创造大量的进攻价值。
- **进攻风格**：他的进攻风格在您看来是最佳的，很少在时间紧迫时才会选择中距离投篮
。他寻找的是篮下进攻、助攻和开放的三分球，这非常适合现代NBA。
- **心理素质**：即使在受到犯规但未吹哨的情况下，他也会迅速站起来继续比赛，这显示
了他坚强的心理素质。
- **控球能力**：作为一名18岁的球员，在职业联赛中拥有如此的自信和沉着，预示着他将
在NBA有良好的发展。
- **与大个子球员的化学反应**：他在挡拆战术中与大个子球员的配合默契，如果他被一支
拥有顶级大个子的球队选中，他们将成为一对出色的组合。
- **创造力**：您认为他具有无法通过教授获得的创造力。
您对Topic的深入分析非常精彩，您对他的游戏风格和场上表现的详细描述，显示了您对篮
球的深刻理解和对统计学的背景知识。如果您有更多关于Topic或其他篮球相关话题的讨论
，我很乐意继续与您交流！