https://yhoo.it/3ZYjjwy
Despite his campaign rhetoric of ending fossil fuels, President Biden acknowledg
ed in his recent State of the Union address that "we’re going to need oil for a
t least another decade."
But a new report released Thursday by an independent agency of Biden’s own gove
rnment projects it will even be much much longer than that.
In fact, the 2023 Annual Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administrati
on (EIA) finds that U.S. oil production may even increase between now and 2050 e
ven as clean energy sources like wind and solar power increase dramatically as w
ell.
The analysts say that U.S. demand for oil and gas is likely to remain remarkably
steady for decades and “we expect U.S. production to remain at historically hi
gh volumes as exports of finished products grow,” said Angelina LaRose, EIA Ass
istant Administrator for Energy Analysis, during a session Thursday around the r
elease of the report.
The EIA is an independent government agency that prepared this week’s report wi
thout the input of the White House or other officials like Energy Secretary Jenn
ifer Granholm. Their predictions have also been echoed by outside experts in rec
ent months, but Thursday's release marks an official government acknowledgment o
f the widespread expectation that U.S. oil and gas production isn’t likely to w
ane anytime soon.
‘Motor gasoline and diesel fuel are still in demand for 2050’
The U.S. currently produces about 20 million barrels of oil per day. Looking to
2050, the EIA analysts see the possibility of one “high oil and gas supply” sc
enario where that number jumps to around 30 million barrels per day in 2050. Pro
duction stays steady or goes down slightly in other models but in every case tha
t the analysts modeled, the U.S. will remain a net exporter of petroleum product
s and natural gas through 2050.
The newly released report is likely to be oft-cited by President Biden’s Republ
ican critics, many of whom jeered when he made his State of the Union prediction
. GOP and industry critics say that Biden and his aides' constant downplaying of
the future for oil and natural gas companies has made companies fearful of inve
sting for the future.
The report also comes in the wake of a Biden administration decision to approve
the ConocoPhillips’s Willow drilling project in Alaska which will produce new o
il for years.
EIA analysts also see explosive growth in clean energy and clean electricity in
the decades to come. The report offered three other key predictions for the ener
gy industry that should also hearten environmentalists.
It forecasts rapidly falling CO2 levels largely thanks to declines in coal produ
ction and large growth in renewable energy production “in all regions of the Un
ited States.” It also expects that technological changes such as more heat pump
s in homes and more electric vehicles on the road will drive the overall energy
industry towards cleaner energy.
But the process is likely to be very gradual. In the EV space, for example, EIA
analysts project that clean cars will only make up less than 20% of the overall
automobile market in 2050.
"Motor gasoline and diesel fuel are still in demand for 2050," LaRose noted.
Another report released by the agency on Thursday dug into the possible effects
of 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act on the energy sector, foreseeing significant
changes from the landmark climate law. On overall CO2 output, levels are project
ed to fall 25% to 38% below 2005 levels by 2030 driven by changes coming online
related to the law.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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