※ 引述《outsiderose (#11)》之铭言：
: 消息来源 JeffPassan X
: https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/2019490989019181228
: BREAKING: Two-time reigning American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal won
: his arbitration case and will make $32 million this year, sources tell ESPN.
: Skubal’s bet to go for the largest salary ever in the arbitration system paid
: off, as he’ll make $13M more than Tigers argued.
: 32M 破纪录啦，等著看Harris怎么操作
: 补上ESPN文章连结
: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47840462/
一直想提供一下这次arbitration hearing的资讯,之前还没时间写出来.
这是一个指标性的案例，先前期提要一下，DET最后提的是19MM,球员方提的是32MM,之前
纪录投手是2015年David Price的19.75MM,打者是2024年Juan Soto的31MM,投手一年加最
多的是2019年Jacob deGrom的9.6MM而前季成绩比Skubal好(Skubal去年10.15MM, 32MM是
一年加21.85MM).
Ken Rosenthal(https://bit.ly/41cX342), Jim Bowden(https://bit.ly/477R8AO), Cody
Stavenhagen(https://bit.ly/4sTvsAH), Jeff Passan(https://bit.ly/4uCnn57)和
BA(https://bit.ly/40EY7xy)都有相关文章立场各不同,详细的arbitration hearing
流程可以自行点进去看.
第一个问题是为何Tigers不送高一点的金额, 例如中间点25.5MM
有一个讲法是President of baseball operations Scott Harris业界资历不是特别资深
(POBO第四年,本身从官方出来),不够反对MLB Labor Relations Department(LRD)的
file-and-trial system,
而用此system球队近年并无明显劣势（近两年11胜13负), 且就文章提及arbitrators常根
本对棒球不熟悉.
或是他们低估了那个CBA Article VI provision,五年以上年资若"special
accomplishments"可和FA比较即便他们并非FA,据文中提到此条文很少有人引用，亦即这
跟Scott Boras以前做的一样，用了CBA条文对球员有利的条文.
另外业界传他们认为Skubal(本身是MLBPA八人executive之一)和Scott Boras想直接去
arbitration hearing不管提多少价钱,使得Tigers撤回了原offer提19MM
,而DET其实是很少去arbitration hearing的(近20年仅一次2019年Michael Fulmer,
Win).
最后球队输了就输了吗?
John Coppolella(前Braves GM)引用电影 White Men Can’t Jump:
“Sometimes when you win, you really lose. And sometimes when you lose, you
really win. And sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie. And
sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose. Winning or losing is all
one organic mechanism, from which one extracts what one needs.”
也许arbitration hearing输给你的王牌投手对球队战绩更好.
以上提供一点资讯.