补一下完整的theathletic.com上Keith Law对状元的完整评价
还有一些补充
状元
KL:
1. Baltimore Orioles: Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
The current betting has the Orioles taking a college position player and
cutting a deal with him, as they did when picking second (2020) and fifth
(2021) in the last two drafts, in part because they don’t believe that Druw
Jones is head-and-shoulders above the remainder of the draft class. I will
point out, however, that GM Mike Elias had the first overall pick in 2019 and
took the best available player, Adley Rutschman; he had it three times while
with Houston, and took the best available player twice (neither of which
worked out). The other time was the most analogous to this year: the Astros
thought four players were all roughly equal in value, or close enough to
treat them as such and try to strike the best deal among them. They ended up
with Carlos Correa, who was, in fact, the best player in the draft. That
said, I think Berry is a future DH and wouldn’t take him anywhere near this
high. The Orioles could also go with Brooks Lee, the Cal Poly shortstop who’
ll at least stay on the dirt and can really hit.
金鸟会如同他们之前的操作一样，选择一位大学选手
一方面是因为他们不认为呼声最高的Druw Jones有这么优秀
(没讲出的那一方面就是他会非常贵)
而GM在类似的选秀经验很有一套，但KL也拿Adley Rutschman当例子说明
金鸟的策略并不是一昧的省钱 而是选择最佳的选择
另一个跟今年很像的例子是2012年，当时在太空人拿到状元签
并用他选走Correa 当时震惊一堆媒体，因为甚至没有一家媒体把Correa
放到前三名(最佳是KL排他第5) 但事实证明Correa就是最好的那个
注:虽然当时的其他热门除了Mark Appel(当年第八 但隔年第1)
其他几位也都很优秀 包含Byron Buxton Mike Zunino Kevin Gausman
金鸟还有一个其他选择是Brooks Lee 他是加州理工的游击手
(他也是MLB预测的状元)
Scouting report: “On bat alone, Berry would be a top-10 pick, as the
transfer from the University of Arizona has mashed for two years, and
drastically cut his strikeout rate even with the move to LSU and a less
favorable home park … He has plus power and good pitch recognition, showing
no trouble the few times he’s seen good velocity this year. He has no
position, though – he’s been well below average at third and in left field.
”
球探报告 : 仅考虑打击面，Berry是前10好的打者 ，考虑到他转学到投手球场后
依然可以大幅降低三振率，表示他除了有强大的力量外也有很好的球场适应能力
可惜不管是三垒还是外野防守都低于水准，这会导致他没有位置可去
而今年状元热门在去年一整年都是Druw Jones - Andruw Jones的儿子
他与Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Jackson Holliday
大致上被认为是今年的TOP1 CLASS
直到金鸟确定拿到状元签 XD
所以对Berry跟Lee 如果不是状元 可能就是第6顺位之后了