MLB板首PO 拗口之处请大家多多踊跃指正!
其实上周就翻完...但选举回老家没电脑就拖到现在才发文XD
翻完当下在棒球版看到已经有FOX记者撷取摘要了
不过还是来献丑一下QQ
原文如下 来自 FanGraphs
https://tinyurl.com/ya8kkla2
里面有三部影片就请有兴趣的板友点进去看惹
The Next Starting Pitcher To Come From Japan
by Jeff Sullivan
November 20, 2018
For what felt like quite a while, the chatter last offseason was dominated by
the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Yusei Kikuchi isn’t Shohei Ohtani. For one
thing, Kikuchi is a few years older. For a second thing, Kikuchi doesn’t
routinely throw his fastball in the upper 90s. And for a third thing, no one
has ever referred to Kikuchi as the Japanese Babe Ruth. I don’t know much
about Kikuchi as a hitter, but I can assume that he is a bad hitter, because
he is a pitcher who hasn’t made waves with his hitting. Kikuchi appears to
have three career hits, now that I check. One of them was a double.
去年休赛季期间最劲爆的话题就是大谷翔平会奖落谁家，菊池雄星不是大谷翔平，他不只
比大谷老了几岁(三岁)，而且他没办法常态性地将球速飙到95mph以上，再者他不是日本
版的Babe Ruth。作者对于菊池雄星的打击实力不是很清楚，但他认定菊池应该不是一个
太好的打者，至少他的打击没有引起太大关注过。
(作者在写文章同时顺手查了一下，菊池生涯只敲过三支安打其中包含一只二垒安打。)
Shohei Ohtani was, and is, a sensation. The Kikuchi hype couldn’t possibly
get close to that level, because Kikuchi won’t be trying to do something no
one else has done in a lifetime. But somewhere in the next week or two,
Kikuchi will be posted by the Seibu Lions, as the 27-year-old southpaw wants
to make his mark in the bigs. He’ll be free to negotiate with any and every
team, and he’s been rather heavily scouted. It’s time we talk about who
Kikuchi is as a pitcher. It just so happens we’ve been given two fairly
reasonable comps.
大谷翔平至今仍震惊著这世界，菊池的话题性没办法跟大谷相提并论，因为他不是在挑战
一件从古至今没有人办到过的事情。这名27岁亟欲挑战大联盟的左投手将在几周后被母队
西武狮放上台面，而且他可以任意跟所有队伍接触
Consensus seems to be that Kikuchi isn’t an ace in the making. At least, not
by major-league standards. It’s easy enough to look over his numbers at
Baseball Reference. Because of injuries, it took a little while for Kikuchi’
s career innings to start adding up. He seemed to conquer some walk problems
in 2017. In the most recent year, his strikeouts went backward. There was
another flare-up of a shoulder problem, that dropped Kikuchi’s innings total
by 24.
所有人都有共识说菊池在大联盟不会是Ace等级的身手，从BR的数据中可以发现菊池饱受
伤痛困扰，这也导致了他在生涯投球局数这方面的累积的不是很快。菊池在2017年克服了
生涯初期保送过多的问题，但这几年他的三振率也逐步下降，另外一个大问题是他的肩伤
在2018年一度困扰了他，使他投球局数较前一年少了24局。
It’s more useful to me, though, to try to put those numbers in context. This
is where DeltaGraphs comes in handy. I calculated a bunch of Kikuchi’s
percentile ranks for the 2018 NPB season. And I’ve chosen to compare those
percentile ranks to those posted by 2015 Kenta Maeda, and 2017 Miles Mikolas.
Maeda came from Japan to the majors, entering his age-28 season. Mikolas came
(back) from Japan to the majors, entering his age-29 season. Kikuchi is
coming from Japan to the majors, entering his age-28 season. We’ve seen
Maeda be successful. We’ve seen Mikolas be successful. None of these
pitchers have overpowering repertoires. I’ll note, before the first plot,
that the one major difference is that Maeda and Mikolas are righties. Keep
that in the back of your mind.
多亏有DeltaGraphs(日本职棒的数据数据库)这个地方，作者将菊池雄星的数据换算成PR值
，并且拿来跟2015年的前田健太以及2017年的Miles Mikolas相比较，那时前田正要28岁，
Mikolas则是要用29岁的赛季再度挑战大联盟。我们已经看到他们两人都有成功缴出精采的
表现，但我要提醒的一点是，他们两个都是右投而菊池是左投!
Here are half of the percentiles I calculated:
下图是笔者整理的前半部分
https://imgur.com/yYCYTfd
K%:三振率 BB%:保送率 K-BB%:三振减保送率 RA:责失分
FIP:Fielding Independent Pitching，只考虑 HR + HBP + BB + K 的影响(越低越好)
xFIP:Expected FIP，根据球场做全垒打部分修正的FIP
GB%:滚地球率 Hard%:hard contact比率
You can see similarities here across the board. The big differentiator is
that Kikuchi’s final-season walk rate wasn’t quite so impressive, but it
wasn’t bad by any means, and Kikuchi looks just fine by K-BB%. By runs
allowed and FIP, Kikuchi doesn’t quite measure up, but he’s right there by
xFIP. All three of these pitchers leaned a little toward grounders. I do
think it’s worth highlighting that, while all three strikeout rates looked
good, they weren’t exceptional. They weren’t at the top of the league. They
were just near to the top.
读者可以发现这三个人在日本职棒最后一季的各项数据排名竟然如此相似，唯一较大不同
之处在于菊池的保送率并没有特别突出的表现(PR值约55)，可也不算到太差，在K/BB方面
有不错的水准。菊池即使在责失分以及FIP的部分小输给两位前辈，但xFIP则维持和两位
前辈并驾齐驱的优质表现。笔者认为他们三个都是偏向滚地球型的投手，附带优秀三振能
力，但他们不是日本职棒最强的投手，他们只是接近最强。
Now for the other half of the percentiles. These include some
plate-discipline components:
后半部分则包括了一些本垒板纪律的项目
https://imgur.com/fhW7So7
FA MPH:速球球速 Slider%:滑球使用率
O-swing%:打者追打坏球比率 Z-swing%:打者挥击好球比率
O-contact%:坏球被打者触球率 Z-contact%:好球被打者触球率
Contact%:挥棒触球率 Zone%:好球率
More similarities. Let’s just go from left to right. We’re seeing
above-average fastball velocities for the NPB, but Kikuchi mostly threw
90-93, averaging about 91.5. Pitchers throw harder in the majors. Kikuchi and
Maeda have both loved their sliders, throwing more of them than almost anyone
else. Mikolas threw a slider pretty often in Japan, but he also threw more of
his curveball. All three pitchers were able to induce swings out of the zone,
but none of the three pitchers were good at suppressing swings in the zone.
Kikuchi appears by far the best here at getting whiffs out of the zone,
presumably thanks to his quality slider. As far as whiffs in the zone go, not
that much to look at. Kikuchi looks better at missing bats overall. And these
are pitchers who’ve worked in and around the zone, with Kikuchi resembling
Mikolas in the last stat.
后半部分三人更像了!他们同时拥有日职平均之上的球速，菊池能丢到90-93mph，但在大
联盟里能丢的比他们快的投手比比皆是。前田以及菊池相当倚赖他们的滑球，他们丢滑球
的比率几乎是日职最多的，Mikolas在日职时期也很常丢滑球，但出现更多的是他的曲球。
三个人都能有效吸引打者去挥击好球带之外的球(O-swing)，可惜的是他们都不常让打者
站着被三振，菊池能凭借著强悍的滑球，让打者频频挥空好球带之外的坏球，可是一旦丢
入好球带，打者都还是能碰到球。总体来说菊池让打者挥空的能力是三人最优，控球能力
则和Mikolas相去不远。
(提醒一下，这边都是以旅美前一年的成绩类比，非生涯平均)
Handedness aside, Kikuchi has, in general, pitched like Maeda and Mikolas, in
their own final NPB seasons. Kikuchi’s repertoire is like a left-handed
version of Maeda’s, and Kikuchi’s bread-and-butter seems to be generating
chase swings with his slider. I wouldn’t say that Kikuchi can quite compare
to Mikolas’ command, but he’s a little better at picking up whiffs, and he
knows how to pitch to the zone. Mikolas just ran an FIP- of 81, and an xFIP-
of 90, over 200.2 innings. Maeda, over 435.1 big-league innings, has an FIP-
of 88, and an xFIP- to match.
撇除左投右投因素，这三人在日本职棒最后一年的成绩是非常相似的，菊池就像是左手版
的前田健太，但他极大的优点就是拥有犀利的滑球能使打者去追打坏球。作者认为菊池将
球控制在好球带边角的能力不如Mikolas，但他更能有效地制造打者挥空，而且他知道该
如何将球丢进好球带。Mikolas目前回大联盟后的FIP-是81，xFIP-则是90(200.2局成绩)
，前田则是拥有FIP- 88，xFIP-也是90的优异成绩。
Here is a clip of Kikuchi’s fastball, which is his primary pitch:
这边为菊池雄星2017年直球影片
That particular fastball was clocked at 95.7 miles per hour. It’s from 2017,
when Kikuchi didn’t have any shoulder issues, but it’s still clear that
Kikuchi can sometimes brush against the upper 90s. Now, here’s a clip of the
slider, which is his secondary pitch. You might recognize old friend Carlos
Peguero!
这颗直球的速度高达95.7mph，2017年的他没有遇到肩膀受伤的问题，那时的他已证明自己
偶尔能丢到95mph以上。接着以下的滑球剪辑，你可以发现挥空的打者是以前在大联盟待过
的Carlos Peguero!!!
And here’s a clip of Kikuchi’s occasional curveball:
接着来看菊池表演他偶尔才投的曲球
To round out the arsenal, Kikuchi has infrequently thrown a changeup. He’s
thrown it enough, though, to qualify as a four-pitch pitcher, and he’s a
fastball-slider specialist. It’s not an accident he’s drawn comparisons to
free-agent lefty starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin, unlike Kikuchi, is coming
off a 2018 that was better than his 2017, but the pitchers have similar plans
of attack. Corbin this year was better at getting whiffs, but that was a new
level for him, and Kikuchi picked up more strikeouts the season before. Also,
while Kikuchi has had some shoulder issues, Corbin has had major elbow
surgery.
纵观完菊池的主要武器球种后，他其实还有一颗不错的变速球，使他变化球种来到三种，
但主要还是由直球滑球搭配使用，而这样的特性也难怪很多人会将他拿来和今年成为自由
球员的左投Patrick Corbin相比拟。Corbin在2018年缴出了比2017年更精采的成绩单，让
打者挥了更多空棒，但他以前从没有表现得如此优异过。而菊池的三振功力则在今年稍稍
下滑。此外两人的伤痛史旗鼓相当，菊池肩膀曾出过问题，Corbin则是手肘动过大手术。
The shoulder problems are certainly a cause for concern. On the plus side,
Kikuchi was durable a season ago, and he came back from injury in 2018
looking effective. On the minus side, it’s not as if Kikuchi has only had
one or two flare-ups. But, see, this is just another good comparison between
Kikuchi and Maeda, because after Maeda agreed to terms with the Dodgers, it
was reported that his medicals were dreadful. The structure of his contract
reflects the organization’s concern, as they built in substantial
protection. Kikuchi’s physical probably won’t go quite as badly, but I’m
not a doctor. Even if I were, I wouldn’t be Kikuchi’s doctor.
菊池的肩伤对于想要争取他的球队来说是个该担忧的点，好的方面来看，他曾在2017年证
明自己很耐投，而且2018年即使受伤也能很快地走出来。坏处来想，菊池的伤不是只有发
生过一两次。但我们能从另一方面来借由前田健太来和菊池雄星连结，前田因为体检报告
相当不乐观，所以道奇对他的疑虑也反应在他当年奇特的合约之中，借由低底薪以及各种
激励奖金来完成签约。作者认为菊池应该相对健康，但毕竟他不是医生，更不是菊池雄星
的专属医生！
There’s no point in me trying to predict where Kikuchi is going to sign.
There are too many teams presently interested, and just about every team
needs pitching. Just about every team can afford Yusei Kikuchi. Once Kikuchi
is officially posted, I’m sure we’ll start to get some clarity, and we’ll
identify some number of favorites. By rule, it’ll all have to resolve itself
within 30 days. And Kikuchi does seem to be a promising No. 2 or No. 3
pitcher. So much is going to depend on his shoulder, and for that reason, the
shoulder will be examined awful closely. But, in 2019, Yusei Kikuchi will
pitch in the majors. Expect him to get a lot of guys out.
作者没有任何线索让他来预测菊池雄星的落脚处，因为大联盟很多队都对他展现了兴趣，
规则上他要在宣告入札的30天内决定球队。菊池被认定有大联盟2~3号先发投手的实力，但
他拿拿到多少价码恐怕要看他的健检报告而定，尤其是他的肩膀。但无论如何菊池雄星在
2019年就要在大联盟登板，期待他能让许多打者闻风丧胆！
简单摘要&心得：
该作者是拿前田 & Mikolas旅美前一年的成绩换算成PR值来跟菊池雄星做个比较
发现三人成绩极为相似，不过也提到菊池的伤痛史是个要注意的点
另外我自己看到菊池的挥臂，有点看到伟殷的影子........
感谢大家阅读完~~~