1. 新闻来源：
mlbtraderumors
2. 新闻标题：
Twins To Sign Lance Lynn
3. 新闻内容：
By Kyle Downing | March 10, 2018 at 3:34pm CDT
The Twins have agreed to terms on a one-year, $12MM deal with right-hander
Lance Lynn, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Morosi also notes that the total
value of the deal could increase to $14MM if Lynn achieves certain
performance bonuses. An earlier tweet from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports
reported that the Twins were “closing in” on a deal with Lynn (Heyman later
noted that the deal was expected to be for one year), while Morosi himself
reported in an earlier tweet that the deal would be worth more than $10MM.
Lynn is a client of Excel Sports Management.
The pact, which is pending a physical, makes Lynn the latest victim of a
slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been
forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to
those they were expected to receive. At the outset of the offseason, we
ranked Lynn ninth on our list of the top 50 free agents, predicting that he’
d receive $56MM over four years. More recently, our player profile for the
righty suggested he could even achieve a $60MM deal. Obviously, the meager
$12MM guarantee from the Twins falls significantly short of those
expectations. He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan
Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty
multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever
Juan Nicasio.
As for the Twins, the deal comes as the latest move of an incredibly busy
(and cost-efficient) offseason during which the club has managed to patch its
rotation quite nicely. After missing out on Yu Darvish, to whom the club
reportedly offered a nine-figure contract that would’ve shattered the club
record, the Twins traded a low-profile prospect for Jake Odorizzi and have
now gotten an incredible bargain on Lynn. They also managed to bring Morrison
to Minnesota on just a $6.5MM deal with incentives and a vesting option.
Though Lynn and Morrison were widely expected to command over $100MM in
combined guarantees, the Twins will promise them a total of just $18.5MM. The
club has also shored up their bullpen this winter by signing Addison Reed,
Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney.
[RELATED: Updated Minnesota Twins Depth Chart/Updated Minnesota Twins Payroll]
The 30-year-old rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals at the outset
of the offseason, so the Twins will be forced to forfeit a 2018 draft pick
after signing him. But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in
2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just
their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall). They’d normally be
required to surrender their third-highest pick, but for Minnesota that’s a
protected selection in Competitive Round B. For Lynn’s part, he’ll no
longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next year thanks to a
provision in the new CBA.
Lynn’s spent his entire career thus far with the Cardinals, who selected him
with a supplemental first round pick in 2008. He reached the majors for the
first time in 2011, and pitched his first full season in the majors the
following year. From that point, he chucked 752 2/3 innings for the Redbirds
(to the tune of a 3.39 ERA) across four seasons before tearing his UCL and
undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. After returning to the
mound to kick off the 2017 campaign, the righty made 33 starts and posted a
3.43 ERA.
Although it seems on the surface that he picked up right where he left off,
pre- and post-Tommy John surgery Lynn don’t look like the exact same
pitcher. While he boasted a career K/9 of 8.67 prior to going under the
knife, his 2017 mark was a meager 7.39. Likewise, his 4.75 xFIP last season
was almost exactly a full run higher than the 3.74 figure he owned prior to
2016. His control wasn’t quite as good either, as evidenced by a 3.77 BB/9
mark in 2017. His pre-Tommy John mark was just 3.35. These statistical red
flags, along with a 0.6 MPH drop on his average fastball, may have been part
of the reason teams were wary of giving him a long-term pact. Still, he’s at
least got durability going for him; outside of 2016 he’s thrown at least 175
innings in each of his full major league seasons.
The Lynn deal seems to spell bad news for fellow right-handers Alex Cobb and
Jake Arrieta, both of whom remain on the free agent market. In particular, it
’s tough to imagine that Cobb, who’s also one season removed from Tommy
John surgery and owns similar career run-prevention numbers, will be able to
eclipse Lynn’s guarantee. With just under three weeks remaining until
opening day, it will be interesting to see what type of contracts the two
best remaining free agent starters receive.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
4. 新闻连结：
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/twins-to-sign-lance-lynn.html
5. 备注：
(1) 双城队以$12MM/1YR附带$2MM的激励奖金签下Lance Lynn，体检完成后即合约生效，
不过他去年拒绝红雀队开的QO，因此双城需放弃掉今年第四高的选秀顺位(第95顺位，根据
新版CBA规则，双城去年收入为大联盟第22名且未超过豪华税门槛，故可以保护其原本该失
去的第三高的选秀顺位(Competitive Round B)
各队收入排名参考：https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall)。
(2) 双城休季后着眼于先发的补强，如今也顺利完成了。在此之前双城曾开出破队史纪录
的上亿元大合约给达比修有，不过他去加盟了小熊，接着双城仅以低阶新秀就从光芒交易
来Jake Odorizzi；此外，双城在休季以总额$18.5MM补强了火力与牛棚，分别签下了Logan
Morrison、Addison Reed、Zach Duke和Fernando Rodney，使得团队总薪资突破上亿元。
(3) 现年30岁的Lance Lynn，在2015年11月动过Tommy John手术，手术前后的表现判若两
人，比较如下：
K/9 xFIP BB/9 Fastball Speed(MPH)
2011-15 8.67 3.74 3.35
2017 7.39 4.75 3.77 -0.6 (直接看下图 from fangraphs)
https://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/2520_P_FA_20170928__pi.png
(4) 双城队今年预计的投手阵容：
A. SP：Ervin Santana(INJ)、José Berrios、Lance Lynn、Jake Odorizzi、Kyle
Gibson、Phil Hughes。
B. RP：Anibal Sanchez、Tyler Kinley、Zach Duke(L)、Ryan Pressly、Trevor
Hildenberger。
C. SU：Taylor Rogers(L)、Addison Reed。
D. CL：Fernando Rodney。
(5) Lance Lynn去年在红雀队的成绩表现(去年薪水：$7.5MM)：
W - L ERA IP R ER SO BB ERA+ FIP WHIP
11 - 8 3.43 186.1 80 71 153 78 124 4.82 1.229