By Joe Trezza MLB.com @JoeTrezz
Dec. 26th, 2017
The 2018 National Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced on Jan. 24,
and with it, a new group of legends will be revealed.
2018年的名人堂将会于1月24日公布,
That makes now as good a time as any to ask a speculative question: Which
current big leaguers might join them one day in Cooperstown? We're not
talking about the easy ones:Ichiro Suzuki Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, the few
into shoo-ins. We're talking about the borderline candidates, the stars who
may well be on their way, but aren't there yet.
这让现在是个非常好的时机提出一个假设性问题:哪位现役大联盟选手未来有可能加入古
柏镇行列?我们不是在讨论能轻轻松松进名人堂的,例如:铃木一朗,Albert Pujols,
Miguel Cabrera,或是其他进名人堂十拿九稳的超级球星.这边要讨论的是在候选人边缘的
球星,他们可能已经在前往名人堂的路上,但是还没到达那个高度
We ran a similar exercise last winter, but this year's version comes with a
twist. Which borderline Hall of Famers actually improved their chances during
the 2017 season? Whose Cooperstown resume looks better than it did a year
ago? These 10 names should ring a bell. (Note: The historical comps below are
informed by similarity scores devised by Bill James and, in this case, are
the retired player who plays the same position and is the most statistically
similar through their current age.)
去年也做过相似的议题,但是今年版本有点改变.哪个在名人堂边缘的球员在2017年提升了
进入名人堂的机会?哪位球星的履历看起来比去年还要好?这10个名字唤起了你的印象(备
注:下方的历史球星比较是根据Bill James所设计出的相似分数.在这个情况下,是指那些
跟现役球员同位置且在数据上最相似的退休球员)
1.Zack Greinke, RHP, age 34
Career: 172-107, 3.40 ERA, 56.9 bWAR
2017: 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 6 bWAR
Historical comp: Mike Mussina
When we explored the topic of active, borderline Hall of Fame candidates last
winter, I wrote of Greinke: "He'll need to finish his career with more
seasons akin to his 2011-15 stretch than his lackluster first season in
Arizona if he wants to bolster his dark horse candidacy for Cooperstown."
That's exactly what he did in 2017. In his second year with the D-backs,
Greinke shaved more than a run off his 2016 ERA, eclipsed the 200-inning
mark, made another All-Star team, won another Gold Glove and placed fourth in
the NL Cy Young Award voting. In the process, he entrenched his place in any
conversation about the defining pitchers of his era.
去年冬天当提到现役在名人堂人选边缘球星的主题时,我写下Greinke:"他需要持续投出类
似他2011-15,而不是他在亚利桑那那种乏善可陈的第一个球季,如果他想要加强他以黑马
之姿候选人进军古柏镇的机会
而这就是他在2017年所做到的.他在响尾蛇的第二个球季,他不只摆脱了2016低迷的防御率
,200局的投球,再次入选明星队,赢得一个金手套,甚至在赛扬票选中名列第四名.他用了他
的防御率表现,巩固了他的位置
2.Max Scherzer, RHP, age 33
Career: 141-75, 3.30 ERA, 45.6 bWAR
2017: 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 7.6 bWAR
Historical comp: Johan Santana
Scherzer's third Cy Young Award puts him in rare company. Ten pitchers in
history have won as many, and of them, only Roger Clemens and Clayton Kershaw
aren't enshrined in Cooperstown (yet).
With the demise of the 300-game winner, the criteria for Cooperstown-worthy
starting pitchers has shifted in recent years, and will only continue to do
so. By the time Scherzer's name appears on the ballot, he'll likely be judged
on the strengths of his dominant peak