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sam9595 (帕帕)
2017-09-01 14:11:50来源: FiveThirtyEight.com
连结: https://goo.gl/jwnSAo
How The Dodgers Are Using Baseball’s New DL Rules To Get An Edge
By: Rob Arthur
道奇是如何使用新的DL制度取得优势的
In a season when the Los Angeles Dodgers are dominating everything in sight,
they also lead the majors in a less praiseworthy category: trips to the
disabled list. Two weeks ago, prized trade-deadline acquisition Yu Darvish
was sent to the 10-day DL; last week, dark-horse Cy Young candidate Alex Wood
was. Those are just some of the latest moves in what has become essentially a
weekly ritual for the Dodgers, marking their 37th use of the short-term DL so
far this season (25 of which have been for pitchers), more than any other
team in baseball.
在这个几乎称霸所有项目的球季，道奇也在一个看起来不值得掌声的项目领先：
DL的次数。两个礼拜前，交易截止前获得的大物达比修也不例外地进了10日DL。上个礼
拜，赛扬奖的黑马人选Alex Wood也无幸免。这些动作在道奇队似乎已成了每周的例行公
事，本季已经第37次进入短期的伤兵名单了(其中25次是投手)(注:指目前的10day-DL)，
次数领先其他所有球队
Critics charge the Dodgers with exaggerating these kinds of injuries to game
the DL, allowing the team to rest some of its starting pitchers without
giving up a roster spot. And the Dodgers are certainly leading the way in
this practice, which became much easier to pull off after a rule change this
season shortened the length of a short-term DL stint from 15 days to 10. But
the Dodgers aren’t the only outfit to make heavy use of the new disabled
list — teams across the league are stashing more players on the short-term
disabled list this season. Nor is this a completely new development: Even
before the rule change, short-term DL use had been on the rise for years.
评论指出，道奇过度夸饰了球员受伤的程度，让他们的先发投手可以休息又不占据
球员名单。道奇显然是使用这种方式的佼佼者，在这季中，15日DL改为10日大大地使得这样
的作法更为容易。但道奇并不是唯一这样作的球队, 联盟中的其他球队也同样更频繁地使
用了短期伤兵名单。而这现象并不是今年才出现，短期伤兵的使用在近年本已有增长趋势。
In an age of one-inning relievers, roster size is a major limitation for
modern front offices. Any unusable players — for example, a starting pitcher
who threw yesterday — can cost a team, as their spot could be taken by yet
another flamethrowing bullpen arm. So teams have come up with all sorts of
ways to overcome roster-size limitations, ranging from sending an endless
churn of relievers back and forth between triple-A and the majors to creating
potential dual-role position player-pitcher hybrids.
在后援投手场均吃一局的年代，球员名单的人数限制是管理层一大难题。所有该场
不会上场的球员，比如说昨天的先发投手，等于多占据了一个可以给火球男出场的名额。因
此，球队们使用许多方式来克服名单限制。比如说，让牛棚投手频繁来往3A，或者让一些球
员成为投打双刀流(连结指向教士队Betancourt)
But the 10-day disabled list might have opened up new possibilities for
roster manipulation. A starting pitcher who is placed on the list may only
have to miss a single start while freeing up his roster spot for a fresh arm
out of the bullpen. The tactical advantage of that additional reliever,
combined with the extra rest it gives the starter, appears to have been too
good of an opportunity to pass up.
但10日DL的出现，开启了另一个新的操控球员名单的可能性。先发投手可以只被跳过
一次先发，把名单让给新鲜的牛棚手臂。增加一个牛棚投手，又能让先发投手多加休息，这
样的机会实在千载难逢。
Smart teams like the Dodgers have exploited this latest edge. Here’s a chart
showing MLB teams’ use of the short-term disabled list by season since 2009
(for comparison’s sake, I included uses for the short-term DL’s longer,
60-day brother).
一些聪明的球队，比如说道奇，善于此道来增加优势。下图显示2009以来的短期伤兵名单
使用次数。(加入长期伤兵名单 - 60日伤兵使用次数作为比较)
图: http://imgur.com/a/pZbpr
There’s still more than a month left on the schedule, but we’re on pace to
see the 10-day DL used 775 times this season. That would be an increase in
short-term DL stints of 40 percent compared with last year. And it’s not
just that injury rates are suddenly up across the board in 2017: Long-term
disabled list usage has stayed at almost the same level for the past five
years.
球季还剩下超过一个月，但以目前进度将会有775次10日DL使用。相比去年，这将会是40%
的成长。但这看来不是因为今年特别容易受伤，长期伤兵名单在过去五年的使用次数几乎不
变
It’s clear, then, that the new 10-day disabled list has changed the way
teams tinker with their rosters. But the new list didn’t so much create a
new problem as exacerbate an old one. League-wide use of the short-term DL
has jumped in each of the past four years (including this season) — and the
Dodgers have paved the way. Since Andrew Friedman left the Tampa Bay Rays to
become president of baseball operations for the Dodgers after the 2014
season, the team has led the league in short-term DL stints every year (only
once during those three seasons did the Dodgers have the most long-term DL
stays — a clearer sign of legitimate injury problems).
看起来似乎很明显，10日DL让球队有新的方式操作球员名单。但新的制度似乎不完全是伤兵
次数增加的主因，过去四年，短期伤兵名单的使用已是年年增加，道奇可说是当仁不让。
自从Andrew Friedman在2014年结束后离开光芒加入道奇，这只球队每一年都在短期伤兵使
用领先群雄(其中只有一年在长期伤兵名单领先, 长期伤兵通常是更明显的伤势)。
The increasing use of short-term DL stints across baseball has prompted
questions from the league about whether all these ailments are legitimate.
Last month, Rob Manfred, MLB’s commissioner, expressed fears that the list
was being manipulated — and with good reason. In an interview last year,
Dodgers starter Ross Stripling suggested that one of his trips to the
disabled list in the past was less about recovering from an injury and more
about hitting an innings limit.
短期伤兵使用的增加让人怀疑这些伤势是不是都是合理的。上个月, 大联盟的执行长
Rob Manfred 表示担心伤兵名单被过度的操作。这样的担心是合理的，去年道奇队的投手
Ross Stripling在访谈中便指出，他有一次进DL主要是为了控制局数而非复原伤势。
Much of the increase in short-term DL trips from recent years seem to be for
nonspecific reasons, ranging from weariness to different kinds of strains. In
2016, five short-term injuries included “fatigue” in their description;
over the three previous seasons, there were only three such trips, combined.
最近几年短期伤兵名单使用的增加，似乎都被给予不太明确的原因。从疲劳到各式各样
的拉伤。在2016，有5个短期伤兵名单的原因是“疲劳”，在更之前的三个球季，总共只有
3次的原因是因为疲劳。
Similar increases have occurred in short-term DL trips for other vague
injuries. Increases in injuries described with the words “fatigue,” “
tightness” or “strain” have together accounted for almost 50 percent of
the total jump in short-term disabled list trips since 2014.
其他模糊的伤势理由也随着增加，从2014以来，所有增加的DL次数，将近有50%以上，
伤势的理由带有“疲劳”、“紧绷”或“拉伤”
Unless baseball became a lot more tiring and stressful in the past three
years, it seems as though teams may be exaggerating small issues in an effort
to free up roster spots.
除非棒球运动在过去三季让人更容易疲劳或紧绷，否则很难不相信各球队在夸大伤势
以便获得球员名单空间。
But while the Dodgers seem to have pioneered this tactic, whether they are
deriving any substantial advantage from it is unclear. That’s because the
exact benefits of having a fresh relief pitcher are difficult to calculate.
但即使道奇是此道的先锋，但还是很难计算他们从此获得多少好处。毕竟多一只新鲜的手
臂的效用是很难计算的。
By at least one measure, though, the Dodgers are succeeding. In a normal
five-man rotation, pitchers rest for four days and throw on the fifth. But by
stashing a starter on the DL, a team can give him a much longer recovery
period. Extended rest (five or more days) seems to reduce the probability of
a serious injury by 20 percent, so a smart team might try to frequently rest
fragile starters to minimize the risk that they will become severely hurt.
And that’s exactly what the Dodgers have done. So far this season, they are
on pace to have the second-most starts thrown by pitchers with five or more
days of rest than any team since at least 2009. And last season’s Dodgers
already had the third-highest mark since 2009, so the new 10-day disabled
list didn’t necessarily inspire this tactic. But it might have made the
strategy more effective by allowing their pitchers to miss fewer starts.
但至少在一点上，道奇确实是成功的。在正常的五人轮值，先发投手投一休四。但若是
把先发投手扔进DL，他可以得到更长的休息。拉长休息天数情况下(5天以上)似乎可以减低
20%的受伤机会，所以聪明的球队试着让脆弱手臂多加休息以降低严重受伤风险。这就是道
奇队在作的。本季到目前为止，他们将预计会是自2009年以来，第二多的先发场次是由休息
五天以上的先发投手主投的。去年的道奇队已经是自2009年以来的第三位了，所以这样的策
略似乎不是由今年的10日DL促成的。但它可能让这样的操作更有效率，因为先发投手可以缺
席更少场次。
Even knowing that rest prevents injuries, whether Los Angeles prevented more
serious ailments by using the short-term DL so frequently is difficult to
say. Friedman built the Dodgers’ rotation on a surprisingly thrifty budget,
relying largely on injury-prone pitchers who could be bought on the cheap.
And the Dodgers seem to have gotten their money’s worth: They racked up more
disabled list trips than any other team in the league in 2016, even if you
focus only on the 60-day list (for which there is no tactical value to
overuse). So even if you believe that the Dodgers are gaming the disabled
list with fake injuries, they also seem to be suffering the most genuine ones
of any team.
即使休息真的有助于预防受伤，但道奇是否有因此减少严重伤势难以衡量。Friedman
以相当节省的方式打造了先发轮值，使用了许多容易受伤的球员，也因此节省了成本。道奇
确实付出了代价。他们2016在伤兵名单使用称霸全联盟，即使你只看60日伤兵名单亦然(没
有太多操作价值)。所以即使你认为道奇用假伤来玩弄系统，他们也确实是受到伤病伤害最
大的球队。
But despite all that missed time, the Dodgers’ rotation has also been very
successful, earning the second-most wins above replacement in baseball since
2014. As if harkening back to his career with the low-budget Rays, Friedman
managed to put together one of the league’s best starting units using cheap
talent and a clever strategic advantage. And with Los Angeles currently
riding that rotation to an all-time great season, MLB’s 29 other teams might
do well to copy the Dodgers’ roster-manipulation tactics.
即便这些进伤兵的次数，道奇的轮值是相当成功的，2014年以来的WAR排名第二。Friedman
在低薪资的光芒学会了用低廉的薪资和巧妙的策略组成优秀的轮值。而道奇今年的轮值方式
带领他们完成一个辉煌的赛季。在未来，其他29只球队或许也会抄袭这样的操作策略。