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本文翻译自Fangraphs.com
When it became very clear that the 2016 Chicago Cubs, the 103-win Chicago Cubs, were potentially one game away from their historical season coming to a disappointing finish, the pitcher standing on the mound was Travis Wood. Wood had just been brought in to face the left-handed Jason Kipnis, and Wood had just thrown three balls in four pitches to Jason Kipnis, and then an 87-mph cutter breaking right toward the heart of the plate. Kipnis hit the very hittable cutter 10 rows deep into the right field
bleachers at Wrigley Field, on a windy night in Chicago when would-be home runs were becoming warning track fly outs all evening long. Not this one.
小熊队即将只剩一场球赛的机会,就可能以失望结束这个令人期待的赛季,而此时在投手丘上的是Travis Wood. 他才刚被送到场上,对付目前的打者,左打的Kipnis.
前四球中,他已经投出三颗坏球, 第五球是颗接近红中的Cutter, Kipnis大棒一挥
这球飞向了右外野看台, 在风城芝加哥, 这球很有可能会被吹成warning track 前被接杀的深远飞球, 但事与愿违
Nothing was stopping this ball, off the bat at 105 mph, from landing in the bleachers (and then immediately being thrown back onto the field), from giving the Indians a 7-1 lead in the game, and from getting the Indians one step closer to the 3-1 lead in the World Series which they now possess. And when that ball was on its way out of the playing field, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Rondon, and Pedro Strop, the three most important Cubs relievers during the regular season, looked on from the third-base
bullpen, none of them having thrown a single pitch in the game.
Rondon eventually mopped up Wood’s mess — and Justin Grimm‘s and Mike Montgomery‘s mess, too — throwing two scoreless innings, striking out two of the eight batters he faced while pumping fastballs that touched 99 mph. And the fact that it was Rondon who mopped up the mess caused by lesser relievers, while Chapman and Strop contributed nothing, highlights the key difference between the bullpens of the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians in this World Series.
离开球棒的初速高达105mph, 这球最后上了看台, 给了印地安人7-1的大幅领先, 也让印地安人在系列赛取得3-1听牌优势的距离也更近了
小熊牛棚里最好的三只牛 Aroldis Chapman, Hector Rondon, 和 Pedro Strop都在场下看着这球飞上外野看台,此时他们都还没有上场投出任何一球.
比赛的后来 Rondon终于上场了, 上场收拾前面投手留下的烂摊子, 两局, 两K, 无失分
三人中的另外两人英雄无用武之地, 也无情地显示出两队牛棚的差别
It’s not that the Cubs don’t have a trio of relievers as talented as Cleveland’s late-inning triumvirate of Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Bryan Shaw. They do. They might even have the more talented trio. Chapman, Strop, and Rondon combined for a 2.59 ERA and a 2.55 FIP in the regular season. Miller, Allen, and
Shaw combined for a 2.36 ERA, but a 2.93 FIP. The regular season results paint an almost identical picture. The projections actually favor the Cubs relief corps.
The difference is this: entering Game Four on Saturday, Chapman, Strop, and Rondon had combined to throw a grand total of four innings for the Cubs in the World Series. Miller, Allen, and Shaw had thrown double that many. The first guys out of Terry Francona‘s bullpen in the World Series have been Miller, Zach McAllister, Miller, and Miller. The first guys out of Joe Maddon’s bullpens have been Strop, Montgomery, Grimm, and Montgomery.
这并不是说小熊三人组不如印地安人牛棚三雄 Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, 以及 Bryan Shaw.
小熊三人组合在季赛缴出 2.59 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 而印地安人三雄则是2.36 ERA, 但较高的FIP.
事实上, 在我们(Fangraphs)的预测系统中, 小熊的牛棚是确实占优势的, 但小熊目前的落后, 也许是差在教练团调度的问题, 小熊三人组在前三场, 总共只投了四局, 反观印地安人, 却是对手的一倍.
印地安人在先发面对危机时, 每场牛棚第一人, 分别为 Miller, McAllister, Miller, Miller. 然后,小熊的第一人是, Strop, Montgomery, Grimm, 及 Montgomery
Only one time has a Cubs starting pitcher handed the ball off to one of the team’s three best regular season relievers, and in that one instance, in Game One, Pedro Strop faced just one batter, who he struck out, throwing just six pitches. Then came Wood, and then came Grimm, who put two men on before Rondon came in and served up the three-run homer to Roberto Perez that blew open the game.
当先发面临危机时, 小熊仅在第一场派出他们牛棚最好的三位投手之一(Strop), 而他也只投了六球, 面对一名打者就下场. 在他之后的是Wood, Grimm, 接下来就是Perez 的三分砲.
In Game Three, it was Carl Edwards Jr. who was left in to face Coco Crisp with the go-ahead run on third base, having already thrown 23 pitches, while Strop, Rondon, and most importantly, Chapman, sat idly in the bullpen. Crisp brought that run in, and it was all Cleveland needed to win.
在第三战, 超前分在三垒时, Carl Edwards Jr. 在场上面对 Coco Crisp, 此时他已经丢了23球, 然而 牛棚最佳三人, Strop, Rondon, Chapman都还在牛棚里坐着.
结果你也知道, Crisp打回了超前分, 印地安人也从Wrigley Field带回胜利
Game Four saw Cleveland turn an uncertain 3-1 sixth-inning lead into a 7-1 blowout the following inning by beating up on Montgomery, Grimm, and Wood without ever having to face the three-headed monster envisioned at the back end of the Cubs’ bullpen when they traded top prospect Gleyber Torres and more to the Yankees at the deadline for Chapman.
第四场,来访的克城球队从Montgomery, Grimm, 及 Wood手中, 将领先优势从
3-1扩大到7-1, 令人不意外的, 他们还是没有面对到小熊牛棚三巨头, 尤其是那个在交易截止日前,用球团里的最佳新秀换来的 Chapman.
Of course, it’s easier to use your best relievers when you’ve got the lead, and the Indians’ hitting and starting pitching has afforded them more leads than the Cubs. That being said, deficits can still be held in check, and we just saw in Game Four how quickly a manageable deficit can get out of hand when a lesser reliever is on the mound. Part of this, too, is Rondon and Strop potentially not being their true selves. Strop missed more than a month with knee and groin injuries that kept him
sidelined until late September; Rondon missed several weeks around the same time with arm problems. And the other part is Chapman, whose warmup routine currently prevents him from straying too far from his ninth inning role, forcing situations like the one Chicago faced in Game Three, when Edwards gave up the game-winning hit to Crisp in a situation when the Cubs would have likely loved to have their best reliever in the game.
当处于领先时, 派你阵中最好的后援投手上场处理危机是天经地义的一件事, 克城打线及先发投手让他们取得多次领先.
然而, 落后的分数是可以控制的, 在G4中我们也看到了小熊是多快就将落后分数一举扩大, 对, 派上较差的后援投手可以帮助你做到这些事. 其中一个原因, Strop 和 Rondon也许都不在状况内. 前者在季末由于伤势, 错过了超过一个月的赛事直到九月底才归队. 而后者也因为手部问题在季末错过了几周的比赛. 另一部分, Chapman的固定暖身习惯使他无法提早上班, 使得在第三战那情形时, 小熊无法派上阵中最佳的后援投手解决危机.
It all boils down to this: Cleveland’s triumvirate of relievers consists of baseball’s most prolific reliever over the last four years, the fourth-most prolific reliever, and then Miller, who can not only be ready to enter the game at a moment’s notice but also has the ability to throw north of 40 pitches unphased. The Cubs, on the other hand, have a trio that’s just as talented as Cleveland’s — if not more so — but consists of two relievers potentially hindered by injury, and one reliever
admittedly hindered by his routine.
更重要的是, 克城三巨头的贡献是近四年来最佳的.
Miller随插随用还能处变不惊的上场投40球. 反观小熊, 拥有(也许) 更加的三人组, 但因为伤势关系影响其中两人的表现, 另一人也无法像Miller般随插随用.
“It’s hard to do that,” Maddon said after Friday’s Game Four loss, referring to Cleveland’s bullpen usage. “It really is. And everybody’s going to be clamoring, ‘That’s the way you should work your bullpens from now on,’ but you have to have the appropriate people to do that, and of course during the season it would be much more difficult as opposed to the microcosm of the postseason. So I think that’s it. They have the right guys among their pitchers to do that, and Kluber kind of like gives
them a blow, like what he did tonight.”
当谈到对手牛棚使用方式, “这太难了“, 风城教头Maddon回应, “大家都跟我说我应该要这样用我的牛棚, 但前提是, 牛的说明书是允许这样用的”
”他们有对的人让他们做这样的事, Kluber强势的表现也让他们的牛棚能有喘息空间“
Whether attributed to heath, routine, score, or managerial aggressiveness, the Cubs have seen two leads get out of hand and a tie game blown, all while their regular season’s most important relievers were available to pitch, but were not in the game. The Cubs paid a steep price to acquire Chapman to complement an already great one-two, late-inning punch in Rondon and Strop, no doubt in hopes of receiving World Series results similar to what Cleveland has gotten from Miller, Allen, and Shaw. Yet, those
three relievers have combined to throw just six innings, and less than three of consequence. Chicago’s bullpen has been a non-factor in the World Series, a hindrance, even, but it isn’t for a lack of talent.
不管是什么原因, 小熊两度在平手时, 让他们的阵中最佳后援投手在场边看着球队被超前,最后导致吞下两场败仗也是一件不争的事实.
小熊付出极大的代价换来了Chapman,搭配原先阵中就很好的 Rondon及Strop, 我们毫无道理不相信他们有能力帮助球队获得和印地安人相同的结果. 然后, 他们三人仅在世界大赛中贡献六局, 使得他们无法对球队做出什么贡献.
风城球队的牛棚在前四场无法对赛局做出什么贡献, 甚至是夺冠路上的阻碍, 并不能说是他们不够好.
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