http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/felix-hernandez-is-not-right/
It has only been three starts, but already after starts one and two, my
FanGraphs colleagues have sounded the alarm bells on Felix Hernandez.
Now it’s my turn to speculate after outing number three. I greatly dislike
speculating and do my best to avoid temptation. But when the signs are
there, it’s difficult to ignore them.
King Felix has had an interesting first three games. For the non-FanGraphs
reader and more casual baseball fan, it might appear like he has performed
as well as ever. After all, his ERA sits at a sparkling 1.00 over 18 innings.
How could one be worried about a pitcher who has allowed just two earned runs
in three starts?! One must dig deeper, of course.
The first concern is one that has already been mentioned and we’re all well
aware of — his fastball velocity. Let’s check out his Pitch Type game log,
going back to 2013, as far back as it goes. We’ll sort by fastball velocity
and find that he has averaged below 90 mph only five times since:
Felix Hernandez Fastball Velocity
Date FB% FBv
4/6/2013 56.7% 88.7
4/16/2016 40.6% 89.2
4/4/2016 38.7% 89.4
4/10/2016 42.4% 89.8
4/12/2015 46.3% 89.9
All three of his starts to open the season make up part of the bottom five,
and not since his second start in 2013 has he sat as low as he has. It’s
normal for pitchers to lose velocity as they age and for a pitcher’s
velocity to tick up as the season progresses. But he’s currently over two
miles per hour short of where he stood last year, which is significant. In
all likelihood, this suggests that assuming he does gain back some velocity,
he’ll still end up well below expectations given what we would expect him to
lose this season.
Interestingly, the velocity loss hasn’t yet affected his ability to induce
swings and misses. His current 11.7% SwStk% is actually the second highest of
his career. Over the years, his fastball usage has declined from the low 60%
range, down to the mid-50% range, and now down into the low-40% range. That
change in pitch mix has been made as his fastball velocity has dropped.
What’s funny is that PITCHf/x has clearly been confused by his velocity
loss, as it’s registering a big bump in changeup frequency this year. The
BIS data disagrees, and is probably the more accurate numbers.
What has not yet been discussed is perhaps an even more ominous sign —
his control. Felix walked five batters in his first start and another six in
his latest outing. That now pushes his walk total up to a whopping 13 in just
18 innings, for a very un-Felix like 16.5% walk rate. After his last game, he
had this to say:
“When I got into the game, it wasn’t there. There was a lot of movement on
the ball. The ball was going everywhere. It was mechanics. I was behind the
ball a little bit. I was all over the place.”
Well yeah, you don’t walk six batters if you’re throwing strikes!
Of course you were all over the place. Were your mechanics an issue during
your first start as well? Now here’s the kicker. Check out a graph of his
strike percentage throughout his entire career:
Felix Hernandez</a/> Strike Percentage Trend Woah, that’s scary, eh? Now, I
have no idea if he’s ever endured a three-game stretch with a strike
percentage that low. But he has been remarkably consistent throughout his
career, so this seriously stands out.
Let’s remember back to last year when Felix was shut down at the end of the
season with stiffness in his right elbow. Uh oh. So he dealt with an elbow
issue, and now he can’t throw strikes, plus his velocity is down
significantly? Are you thinking what I’m thinking? I would be extremely
nervous if I were a Felix owner, a Mariners fan, or Felix himself.
If you are a Felix owner, he has done you all a great favor by not allowing
a homer, posting just a .200 BABIP, and stranding over 80% of runners. All
that good fortune has masked his poor pitching so far and given you a window
with which to shop him. Surely someone in your league will stop at the 1.00
ERA, think all is fine, and be willing to give up a pretty good hitter, or
even a comparable pitcher. How about Corey Kluber?
This may all just be an early season blip, and for all we know, Felix could
be back up to 91+ mph, with improved control thanks to a mechanical fix. But
the alarm bells are blaring and the risk is higher than ever that Felix is
dealing with a serious issue. Better to reduce your risk and see what you
could get for him, then hold and hope for the best.
附上历年球速
Season Team vFA vFT
2007 Mariners 96.3
2008 Mariners 94.5
2009 Mariners 93.8
2010 Mariners 94.4
2011 Mariners 93.4
2012 Mariners 92.4
2013 Mariners 91.3
2014 Mariners 92.5
2015 Mariners 92.1
2016 Mariners 89.7
随年纪变大球速变慢很正常,但从去年的92 mile降到89 mile实在很不寻常
文中作者写的单场球速在90mile以下的场次,共5次,可能的理由是球季刚开始,King比较慢热,但
分别在2013年与2015年,后来就调整过来了,2016年已连续4场场均球速不到90 mile
PS: 文是4/18写的,我看4/23的比赛,速球大部分在87~89 mile(虽然有几球92 mile),故个人再加上
1场
Felix Hernandez Fastball Velocity
Date FB% FBv
4/6/2013 56.7% 88.7
4/16/2016 40.6% 89.2
4/4/2016 38.7% 89.4
4/10/2016 42.4% 89.8
4/12/2015 46.3% 89.9
这对KING来说是个明显的警讯..