http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-we-hate-the-diamondbacks/
The forecasting systems aren’t trying to project best-case outcomes.
Instead, they simply look at a Diamondbacks roster that has some key players
who are likely to perform worse than they did a year ago, sees zero depth in
the rotation, and several significant question marks among the projected
regulars, without any obvious internal replacements around if things go south
again. It’s a team that absolutely could win if enough things go right, but
while the new guys they got will help, the team isn’t adding those guys to a
79-win base. That’s just not how baseball works.
因为鲁蛇的重点球员今年会从去年的高潮水准回归
轮值没有深度
没有替代方案
如果运气够好的话 当然是有机会抢胜
不过以合理的角度来看 现在的鲁蛇就只是支鲁鲁的79胜等级球队而已