http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/
原文来自FANGRAPHS,这个作者Chris Mitchell的KATOH系统分析的农作物排行
这边有有关KATOH是啥的解释:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-primer-on-a-new-and-improved-katoh/ 新系统
http://tinyurl.com/zv53wgs 旧系统
非常有趣,尤其是第二个网页
但也非常长,敝人眼睛不好,有机会再好好翻译,英文好的人建议自己看~
不想懂KATOH的人也没关系,反正发这篇只是要贴排行的部分,另外作者有强调
他只看至少有300PA的,所以像2015才进来的新人打数太少就不列了
还有他的模型原则上是参考2015年的成绩,为了顾虑2014年(其实应该要顾虑)
最后还是做了补充
※所谓WAR thru 28就是预测这个球员到28岁,WAR的累积值,当然是越高越好
而后面的2014 WAR thru 28是作者后来补充,也就用他的新模型来看该球员在2014
年的成绩的WAR评测(前面说了作者原本只单独参考2015年),这样的用意是要给大家看
某些球员进幅非常巨大,像排名第一的的Max Kepler。
KATOH’s Top 100 Prospects for 2016
Rank Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
1 Max Kepler Twins 19.6 0.8
2 J.P. Crawford Phillies 17.5 6.3
3 Corey Seager Dodgers 16.4 9.4
4 Julio Urias Dodgers 15.6 4.5
5 Orlando Arcia Brewers 14.5 4.5
6 Alex Verdugo Dodgers 14.5 3.4
7 Jake Bauers Rays 13.3 3.4
8 Albert Almora Cubs 12.8 3.3
9 Nomar Mazara Rangers 12.7 5.4
10 Ozhaino Albies Braves 12.4 4.0
11 Manuel Margot Padres 12.0 6.2
12 Billy McKinney Cubs 11.2 1.7
13 Jamie Westbrook D-backs 11.2 0.9
14 Gavin Cecchini Mets 11.2 1.9
15 Jacob NottinghamAthletics 11.0 0.1
16 Alex Reyes Cardinals 10.8 1.6
17 Tyler Glasnow Pirates 10.8 5.4
18 Jose Berrios Twins 10.6 4.5
19 Jose Peraza Dodgers 10.6 5.3
20 Willson ContrerasCubs 10.1 0.1
21 A.J. Reed Astros 9.9 1.3
22 Chance Sisco Orioles 9.7 7.1
23 Rafael Devers Red Sox 9.6 2.3
24 Lewis Brinson Rangers 9.2 0.4
25 Ruddy Giron Padres 9.1 #N/A
26 Austin Meadows Pirates 8.7 #N/A
27 Samir Duenez Royals 8.3 2.3
28 Dom Nunez Rockies 8.0 #N/A
29 Lucas Giolito Nationals 7.9 2.5
30 Ramon Flores Brewers 7.7 4.1
31 Trea Turner Nationals 7.6 0.6
32 Willi Castro Indians 7.5 #N/A
33 Josh Bell Pirates 7.5 3.1
34 Juremi Profar Rangers 7.5 0.7
35 Franklin BarretoAthletics 7.4 2.9
36 Jesse Winker Reds 7.4 3.0
37 Sam Travis Red Sox 7.3 1.9
38 Carlos Tocci Phillies 7.3 0.5
39 Renato Nunez Athletics 7.1 2.3
40 Brett Phillips Brewers 6.8 6.2
41 Blake Snell Rays 6.4 0.9
42 Trey Mancini Orioles 6.4 0.5
43 Jeimer CandelarioCubs 6.4 0.8
44 Gleyber Torres Cubs 6.3 3.0
45 Hanser Alberto Rangers 6.2 1.8
46 Reese Mcguire Pirates 6.1 2.7
47 Byron Buxton Twins 6.1 #N/A
48 Mallex Smith Braves 6.1 0.9
49 Jomar Reyes Orioles 6.0 1.1
50 Alex Bregman Astros 5.9 #N/A
51 Tyler Heineman Astros 5.9 1.4
52 Andrew Knapp Phillies 5.7 0.1
53 Dominic Smith Mets 5.6 0.6
54 Boog Powell Mariners 5.5 0.7
55 Ben Gamel Yankees 5.5 0.2
56 Cole Tucker Pirates 5.4 0.5
57 Javier BetancourtBrewers 5.4 1.1
58 Gary Sanchez Yankees 5.3 1.4
59 Nick Williams Phillies 5.3 0.3
60 Edwin Diaz Mariners 5.2 0.9
61 Clayton Blackburn Giants 5.2 4.6
62 Christian Arroyo Giants 5.1 4.6
63 Josh Hader Brewers 5.1 1.5
64 Yairo Munoz Athletics 5.0 2.2
65 Jose De Leon Dodgers 4.8 1.4
66 Austin Barnes Dodgers 4.8 4.8
67 Daniel Robertson Rays 4.8 5.1
68 Rhys Hoskins Phillies 4.7 0.1
69 Brandon Drury D-backs 4.6 3.0
70 Michael Fulmer Tigers 4.6 0.7
71 Zachary Davies Brewers 4.6 2.4
72 Francis Martes Astros 4.4 #N/A
73 Harold Ramirez Pirates 4.4 0.3
74 Jacob Faria Rays 4.4 0.7
75 Ariel Jurado Rangers 4.4 #N/A
76 Tyler White Astros 4.3 1.0
77 Willie Calhoun Dodgers 4.3 #N/A
78 Franmil Reyes Padres 4.3 1.2
79 Dylan Cozens Phillies 4.2 0.2
80 Miguel Almonte Royals 4.2 0.9
81 Kevin Padlo Rockies 4.1 #N/A
82 Nick Gordon Twins 4.1 0.6
83 Jack Flaherty Cardinals 4.1 #N/A
84 Jake Thompson Phillies 4.1 2.6
85 Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays 4.0 1.1
86 Steven Matz Mets 4.0 1.4
87 Carson Kelly Cardinals 4.0 3.7
88 Francelis MontasWhite Sox 4.0 1.7
89 Jorge Polanco Twins 4.0 1.7
90 Justus Sheffield Indians 3.9 #N/A
91 Victor Reyes D-backs 3.9 0.0
92 Robert Stephenson Reds 3.9 1.1
93 Spencer Adams White Sox 3.9 #N/A
94 Cheslor Cuthbert Royals 3.9 3.1
95 Ryan Castellani Rockies 3.8 #N/A
96 Ronald Torreyes Dodgers 3.8 4.9
97 Zach Lee Dodgers 3.8 1.0
98 Joey Rickard Rays 3.8 0.0
99 Malquin Canelo Phillies 3.7 0.1
100 Brent Honeywell Rays 3.7 #N/A
各位快来看看你家农作物有没有上吧
某两队的球迷可能会发现没有半个人在榜上,没关心,贴心的作者说:
And so Marlins and Angels fans don’t feel left out…
Rank Player Team WAR thru 28 2014 WAR thru 28
141 Tomas Telis Marlins 2.9 4.0
175 Tyler Deloach Angels 2.5 1.0
最后你还有一点兴趣的话,可以参考他WAR值的Future Value参考:
WAR Threshold Future Value
At least one game in the majors 35
>4 WAR 40
>6 WAR 45
>8 WAR 50
>10 WAR 55
>12 WAR 60
>16 WAR 65
35分就是可以在大联盟混个一两场,40分好一点上上下下走马看花,运气好
待一季。50分则是平均,50~55分大约可以站稳大联盟,60分以上就是未来明星球员
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