对自己家有兴趣就找来翻了一下～
一个月以前的旧文，有稍微补充了一下。
Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Washington Nationals
By Rick Weiner, Featured Columnist
Oct 8, 2014
http://ppt.cc/iVWo
For the second time in three years, the Washington Nationals can call
themselves division champions and nothing more, having been knocked out in the
division series once again.
It's a disappointing end for a team that looked like one of the favorites to
represent the National League in the World Series. Changes are certainly going
to be made between now and Opening Day 2015, though to what extent won't be
known for at least another few months.
What follows is an overview of some of the decisions that the team is going to
have to make—and some of the players they may look to in order to bolster the
roster.
国民队季后预测
By Rick Weiner, 10/8
过去三年，WSH拿下两次分区冠军，除此之外一无长进，就在前几天，又在NLDS被巨人击败
。这是一个令人失望的结果，因为在国联球队中，国民看来很有进军世界大赛的希望。在
2015开幕战前，WSH势必要有些改变，但在这几个月内，会改变到什么程度，就很难说了。
这篇文章会指出WSH在季后必须做的决定。
1.Payroll Breakdown
With an Opening Day payroll of more than $136 million—an $18 million jump from
2013—Washington owner Mark Lerner openly admitted that the team was topped out
financially.
“We’re beyond topped out,” Lerner told Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post
shortly after the season began. “Our payroll has skyrocketed to like $140
million. It’s in the papers. I don’t think we can go much further with the
revenue streams that we have.”
Those revenue streams continue to be negatively impacted by the ongoing
litigation between Washington and Baltimore over tens of millions of dollars in
television rights fees from MASN (Mid-Atlantic Sports Network) that currently
go to the Orioles.
The question is, will he sign off on spending more—in the $150 million to $160
million range—to help get his club over the hump and into the National League
Championship Series without a resolution to the team's ongoing legal issues?
Washington has a number of key players due significant raises through the
arbitration process, and working out long-term deals with some of its young
talent is surely going to be something that general manager Mike Rizzo would
like to explore.
Without any real indication as to whether ownership has softened its stance on
the payroll, it's tough to predict exactly what the Nationals are going to do.
But we'll give it a shot anyway.
1.Payroll爆表
2014WSH的payroll是136M，比2013多了18M。WSH老板Mark Lerner公开承认球队payroll已然
爆棚。
“我们爆棚啦”，Lerner在2014开季后不久对华盛顿邮报的Kilgore说，“我们的payroll暴
冲到接近140M，这还只是帐面上的，我不觉得我们能赚这么多啊。”
球队的收益受到日前WSH跟BAL的MASN几十M的电视权利金诉讼的负面冲击，诉讼目前倒向BAL
。
（译按：8月，纽约州最高法院驳回MLB仲裁小组的结论，认为MASN不需要给WSH钱。）
问题来了，Lerner会不会在诉讼还未定案的情况下，花多一点的钱，大概是150~160M，以帮
助WSH度过当前难关，杀入NLCS？WSH有一票重要球员会在薪资仲裁中获得加薪，用长约绑一
些年轻大物是GM Mike Rizzo需要面对的课题。
目前不知道Lerner揪竟会否松绑payroll，因此很难预料WSH会怎么做，不过我们试试看。
2.Arbitration-Eligible Players
Players Headed for Arbitration (2014 salary)
‧LHP Jerry Blevins ($1.675 million)
‧RHP Tyler Clippard ($5.875 million)
‧LHP Ross Detwiler ($3 million)
‧IF Danny Espinosa ($540,850)
‧RHP Doug Fister ($7.2 million)
‧IF/OF Kevin Frandsen ($900,000)
‧C Jose Lobaton ($950,000)
‧RHP Ross Ohlendorf ($1.25 million)
‧C Wilson Ramos ($2.095 million)
‧RHP Craig Stammen ($1.375 million)
‧RHP Drew Storen ($3.45 million)
‧RHP Stephen Strasburg ($3.975 million)
Ideally, the Nationals would be able to lock both Doug Fister and Stephen
Strasburg up to long-term deals.
But both are likely to be seeking more than $100 million, making such a
scenario extremely unlikely. Another one-year deal for each awaits, with Fister
coming in around $10 million and Strasburg in the $7 million to $8 million
range.
Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen are quickly becoming an expensive bullpen pair,
but can the Nationals really afford not to keep either one after Rafael
Soriano's second-half implosion?
The answer, of course, is no, and both will be back, despite Storen's shaky
postseason performance. Clippard will be pulling in close to $7 million, with
Storen in the neighborhood of $5 million.
While Wilson Ramos has never become the offensive force that he was touted as,
he's been a steadying force behind the plate for one of baseball's most
talented pitching staffs—when he plays.
It's been three years since Ramos was on the field for more than 90
regular-season games, making a long-term deal for the 27-year-old backstop a
bit of a risk. A one-year deal around $4 million sounds about right.
Danny Espinosa had another disappointing season, but he remains relatively
affordable with a salary around $1 million.
Teams are sure to call and check on his availability over the winter, but with
a mediocre crop of second basemen available as free agents, Espinosa could
factor into Washington’s plans at the position in 2015.
2. 薪资仲裁
以上是能够提出薪资仲裁的球员。
理想上来说，WSH能够用长约绑住Fister与Strasburg。但他们两个都寻求超过100M的长约，
让目前的局面看起来不太可能成真。可能两个都先加薪一年，Fister 10M，小史7-8M。
Clippard与Storen很快就会变成贵松松的牛棚投手，但WSH在Soriano下半季核炸后，应该无
法承受直接放掉这两个人的结果。我猜，两人都会留在阵中，尽管Storen季后赛抖抖的。
Clippard可能会加薪到7M，Storen 5M。
尽管捕手Wilson Ramos从没有变成他自己说的“攻击砲火”，但他还是国民一票天才洋溢投
手的重要伙伴—前提是他能上场，不受伤。Ramos近三年从未出赛超过90场，因此给这个27
岁的挡球网一份长约，有点风险。4M/1yr，合理价码。
Danny Espinosa今年还是没长出来，但他1M的薪资，让CP值还过得去。球队一定会兜售他，
但考量到今年FA的2B非常贫瘠，Espinosa应该还是会在明年WSH的阵中。
。
Potential Free Agents
‧2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera
‧OF Scott Hairston
‧1B Adam LaRoche ($15 million mutual option, $2 million buyout)
‧2B/3B Anthony Rendon (team option*)
‧OF Nate Schierholtz
‧RP Rafael Soriano ($14 million team option)
‧CF Denard Span ($9 million team option)
There's a case to be made for the Nationals to re-sign Asdrubal Cabrera to play
second base, despite his limited range, but it's an unlikely scenario. There's
a team out there willing to bet that it can get Cabrera's bat back on track,
and it'll offer more than the Nationals are comfortable with.
Adam LaRoche is going to wind up an unfortunate casualty of Ryan Zimmerman's
inability to play the hot corner anymore, something that LaRoche recently told
Mark Zuckerman of Comcast SportsNet and NatsInsider.com that he's resigned to:
“If you had to ask me now, I would assume that I would have to move on,
unfortunately.”
Despite hitting .259 with an .817 OPS and leading the team in home runs (26)
and RBI (92), the Nationals have to find a new home for the injury-prone
Zimmerman, and first base is the most logical landing spot.
Exercising the option on Anthony Rendon's contract, for whatever the amount may
be, is an easy decision for the Nationals. Though in a perfect world, the club
would get his signature on a long-term deal as quickly as possible.
Bringing back Denard Span on a $9 million option and declining the $14 million
option on former closer Rafael Soriano are also easy decisions for GM Mike
Rizzo to make.
The two veteran outfielders remaining on the list, Scott Hairston and Nate
Schierholtz, are both expendable with the emergence of Steven Souza and, to a
lesser extent, Michael Taylor.
3. 可能变成FA的球员
以上是可能变成FA的球员。
重签守备范围不大的Asdrubal Cabrera 困难度有点高。一定会有球队在外面等着要Cabrera
的棒子。
Adam LaRoche即将变成Ryan Zimmerman不能守3B的牺牲品了。最近，LaRoche这样告诉CSN记
者Mark Zuckerman说，“你若现在问我的话，我觉得我需要向前看了（指转队）。”
（译按：果不其然，10月底，WSH付出2M的买断金，放生了LaRoche。）
尽管LaRoche今年打出.259打率、.817 OPS与领先全队的26发HR、92分RBI，但WSH需要为因
伤不能守3B的Zimmerman找新位置，1B就是最适合的位置。
无论金额怎样，总之捡Anthony Rendon的option就对了！理想状态下，WSH会尽快和Rendon
签长约。捡Denard Span明年的9M option、不捡Rafael Soriano明年的14M option也是非常
显而意见的决定啦～
（附注：Rendon 2015的option值多少钱，目前并不清楚，但确定是Team option。）
两位外野老将Scott Hairston 与 Nate Schierholtz 将会留在名单中，以应付Souza与（机
会比较少的）Taylor。
4. Potential Free-Agent Targets
Assuming that Asdrubal Cabrera departs as a free agent, the Nationals are going
to be in the market for a new starting second baseman.
While there are a handful of veteran options available via free agency, none of
them are overly exciting. Still, someone has to play the position, and Danny
Espinosa can't do it alone.
Expect the Nationals to look to bolster the bullpen in free agency as well,
specifically when it comes to adding a second left-handed reliever to
complement Matt Thornton.
Jerry Blevins was mediocre at best for Washington, and there's little chance
the team will bring him back.
Here are some of the names the Nationals could be linked to once free agency
begins:
‧Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/OF: He's limited offensively, but Bonifacio can hol
his own defensively at second base. His base-stealing acumen could be useful
toward the bottom of the Nationals lineup. Won't cost an exorbitant amount to
sign and has the versatility to play multiple positions.
‧Sean Burnett, LHP: Probably a big stretch here, but Burnett, who has see
his career derailed by back-to-back season-ending elbow injuries, did have his
best years in Washington (a 2.81 ERA from 2009-12). A huge risk, but on an
incentive-laden deal, could reap huge rewards.
‧Andrew Miller, LHP: Miller will be costly—something around thethree-yea
$16.5 million deal that Boone Logan got from Colorado—but he's the best
left-handed reliever, and arguably the best middle reliever, available.
Andrew Miller, LHP:Miller可能很贵，要价大概跟Boone Logan与COL签的16.5M/3y差不多
。但他是最好的LHP之一，也大概是最好的中段RP之一。
‧Ramon Santiago, 2B/SS: Santiago doesn't hit for average—a lifetime .227
hitter—but he showed an uncanny knack for getting on base with Cincinnati in
2014 (.343 on-base percentage) and plays above-average defense at second and
short.
4.可能交易的名单
假设Cabrera成为FA，WSH必须要在FA捞一个2B回家。尽管FA市场有满手2B老将可以选，但没
一个值得期待的。话虽如此，还是得签一个啦，Espinosa无法一人负荷。
看WSH补充牛棚也差不多，尤其WSH必须填补Matt Thorton离队后，第二个左手牛的洞。
Jerry Blevins是个不太好的选择啦，但WSH仍有一点点机会留下他。
以下这些是WSH可能在FA市场开打后接触的人：
Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/OF：进攻不佳，但足以靠着守备占著2B。盗垒技巧也能够在后段棒
次中派上用场。经济实惠又多重守位，不签吗？
Sean Burnett, LHP：这个选择满困难的。尽管他曾连续两年因手肘伤势而整季报销，但他
生涯表现最好时期都在WSH（09-12年，ERA 2.81）风险很高，但若激励条款的方式，也许可
以期待有高回报。
Andrew Miller, LHP:Miller可能很贵，要价大概跟Boone Logan与COL签的16.5M/3y差不多
。但他是最好的LHP之一，也大概是最好的中段RP之一。
Ramon Santiago, 2B/SS:
打击不到平均水准，生涯平均打率只有.227，但他2014在CIN阵中，有不可思议的.343上垒
率。并且SS与2B的守备水准都在平均之上。
It's easier for any team to improve itself via free agency than by trades for
one simple reason: You need someone else to trade with.
Yet Washington GM Mike Rizzo isn't afraid to make a deal when one needs to be
made. You can be sure he'll be working the phones this winter, especially when
it comes to finding a solution at second base. You saw some of the names on the
free-agent market. It's ugly out there.
Now keep in mind, there's no indication that any of the players listed below
are readily available...yet. But once the playoffs are over and the offseason
kicks into high gear, they could be.
‧Didi Gregorius, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: He had a rough 2014 campaig
the plate and in the field, but the 24-year-old is widely regarded as a superb
defender at shortstop, someone who should be able to handle second base.
Questions about his bat remain, however.
‧Jose Ramirez, 2B/SS, Cleveland Indians: Top prospect Francisco Lindor wi
take over as the team's everyday shortstop, while Jason Kipnis is entrenched at
second base, leaving Ramirez a man without a position. He's held his own at the
plate (.262 BA, 85 wRC+) and offers above-average defense at both middle
infield positions.
‧Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Zobrist enters the final year of his
contract with the Rays, and like nearly every All-Star-caliber player who has
called Tampa Bay home, he's going to be too expensive for the Rays to keep past
this season. He's got some pop in his bat, can play second and either of the
corner outfield spots and knows how to get on base consistently.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of
Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs; all payroll and salary information
courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Want to talk Nationals' offseason plans or anything baseball related? Hit me up
on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
要增强球队的话，签FA比交易容易多了，因为你必须要有人跟你交易才行。Rizzo并不怕进
行交易，这个冬天他一定会打不少电话询问交易，尤其是2垒的洞。但…你也看到了，FA没
啥好2B给你选。
以下是可能的交易名单：
Didi Gregorius, 2B/SS(ARI)：2014年，他表现还有点粗糙，包括打击跟守备。但大家都觉
得他SS守备可以长得很好，他也可以守二垒。问题点在他的打击。
Jose Ramirez, 2B/SS（CLE）：潜力新秀Lindor会站稳SS，Kipnis会守2B，Ramirez被
挤出来了。他的打击还OK，.262打率、85 wRC+，SS与2B守备都在标准之上。
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF（TB）：明年是Zoby合约的最后一年，就如同TB出产的其它明星球员
一样，TB没钱，无法续签，哈哈。Zoby打击表现不错，上垒能力满好的，可以守2B，也可以
守角落外野。