Joey Votto: Run Producer
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-run-producer/
by Jeff Sullivan - August 29, 2013
As I’m writing this on Wednesday night, the Reds are clobbering the
Cardinals, 9-0. All those runs, incidentally, were charged to Adam
Wainwright, which means both Wainwright and Felix Hernandez imploded on the
same day. Joey Votto, so far tonight, has batted three times against St.
Louis. He’s drawn three walks, as Votto is wont to do. He walked with two on
in the first inning, and later scored a run. He walked with one on in the
second inning, and soon thereafter scored a run. He walked again in the
fourth, but the bases were empty — and that’s not what this is going to be
about.
当我想在星期三晚上写这篇文章时，红人正以9:0领先红雀。9分都是Wainwright的责失，
而偶然的Hernandez跟Wainwright就在同天爆炸。Votto在这天打了3次(注一)，然后他
3次都选到保送。第1次在第1局，当时2人在垒，最后他也回来得到1分；然后他在第2局
再选保送(垒上有1人)，结果又回来得1分；接着第4局，他在垒上无人情况下又被保送。
*注一:作者写这篇时比赛还没结束，最后这场Votto上场打击四次，领了3BB，回来得2分
If you haven’t read the arguments, you’ve probably at least heard about
them. Votto has been a polarizing player for the Reds, because he’s drawn a
ton of walks in run-scoring situations. With runners in scoring position, he’
s walked more than a quarter of the time. The end result is that Votto has an
underwhelming RBI total, and he’s supposed to be in the lineup to produce
runs. In theory, run-producers are supposed to swing the bat. Run-producers
like Brandon Phillips. One’s instinct is to think this is absurd — and it
is pretty silly — but we might as well dig in for a few minutes. Are people
warranted to be frustrated by Joey Votto’s patient approach?
如果你还没看过这些讨论，你也可能听过这些了。Votto是红人队上相当极端的球员，因
为他在RISP的时候选一大堆保送，在RISP的情况下，他保送占打席的比例超过1/4，这结
果就是他的打点多让人"印象深刻"，而且他的棒次应该是要打打点的。
理论上打点制造者应该是要挥棒的，就像Brandon Phillips一样。
人们真的对Votto沉默的方式沮丧吗？ 但是人的本能都觉得这样是相当荒谬的。
To give a face to the pro-swing crowd, here’s Dusty Baker:
“The name of the game is, ‘He who crosses home plate the most wins.’ So you
’ve got to have somebody to cross home plate, and you’ve got to have
somebody help him cross home plate.”
Baker makes it clear that he wants to see Votto be the latter guy more often.
“He’s done it before,” he said. “It’s not like he hasn’t done it before.
”
Baker说：(球赛)就是谁得比较多分，谁就获胜。所以就是要球员得分，但要得分就要
其他人帮忙。
Baker很明显的表达，他希望Votto是上述的后者(打RBI回来的人)
Baker再说：他(Votto)以前做过，所以不是说他不能做到。
To give a face to the pro-patience crowd, here’s Votto:
“All I want to do is do what I can,” said the 29-year-old first baseman who
heard no complaints in 2010 when he took 91 walks and won the National League
MVP. “Sometimes I take a pitch, but I might be timing a pitch and looking at
it for a future swing. Sometimes I take a pitch in the middle of the plate
and people say, ‘Ah, man, how can he take that pitch with runners in scoring
position?’ Well, if I don’t see that pitch why swing. And it might result
in a better swing later in the at-bat and a better day in general.”
Votto说：我想做的都是我能做到的。有时候我等一球，是为了看投手投球时间间距，接着
等待未来的挥击。有时候我等一球，而这球刚好投在红中，有人就会说：“嘿！这时候
(RISP)你怎么能放过这球？”。但是如果我并不觉得这球值得出棒，之后的挥棒结果可
能会更棒。
Right now, Votto’s .487 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position
ranks him fourth in baseball. For good measure, he’s also batting .318, but
that comes with a whole lot of bases on balls, and bases on balls seldom
drive runners home. The argument for swinging more is you should expand your
zone a little bit with runners in scoring position, because hits become extra
valuable. The belief is that Votto is good enough to do that. The argument
for sticking with the patience is that swinging at worse pitches will lead to
worse results, and drawing a walk is hardly a negative. It’s not up to Votto
to drive in all the runs; he’s part of a lineup, after all, and he can add
an extra baserunner for the next guy.
现在Votto在RISP的情况下上垒率是.487。从另一方面来说他的打击率也高达.318，这表
示他保送的非常非常多，而保送很少会导致打点的产生。多挥棒的争论是因为多打带来
更多价值，在RISP下你必须将你的击球区域过大一些，而Votto的打击是可以做到这点的。
等球的争论点是，去追打坏球会导致更糟的结果，而选BB几乎是没有负面影响的。
不能指望都靠Votto打回所有RBI，他是打线中的一员，而保送可以为下个打者制造多的
跑者。
If I wanted, I could just leave it at this: Votto presently ranks fifth in
baseball in runs scored. That’s not because of his outstanding speed, and it
’s not because he’s constantly driving himself in like Chris Davis or
Miguel Cabrera. Like Baker said, you need to have someone to score, and
someone to help him score. Even when Votto walks, he’s still producing runs,
just less visibly. This is pretty elementary stuff. Walks have a positive run
value, because walks mean baserunners and baserunners mean more runs.
如果我要的话，我会留下这段话：Votto现在是全联盟得分第5名，并不是因为他有很快
的跑垒速度，他也不像C.Davis跟M.Cabrera。就像Baker说的你需要球员得分，而有些人
是帮助他得分。就算Votto选到保送，他一样是在制造得分，只是非常不明显。
保送对于得分是有正向帮助的，因为保送代表多跑者，而多跑者代表多得分。
Here’s Votto’s first plate appearance from Wednesday. With two on, he drew
a walk.
这里是Votto昨天第一个打席，2人在垒，他选了保送。
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vottobb1.png
Those three red circles are swings. Votto didn’t go up there and take
everything — he swung at the first pitch, and he even chased a ball out of
the zone. But there wound up being a lot more balls out of the zone, so Votto
took his walk and didn’t expand his zone too much. Here’s Votto’s second
plate appearance from Wednesday. With one on, he drew a walk.
三个红圈圈是他挥棒的。他挥第一球，然后他甚至挥了一个偏离好球带的坏球，最后他
选到了保送。接下来是Votto第2次上场打击，1人在垒，他又选了一个保送。
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vottobb2.png
He took the first strike. He swung at the second, evening the count 2-and-2.
But that was followed by a low ball and a high ball. Neither deserved a
swing, so Votto didn’t — and he took his base. The runner on first moved to
second, and the next batter went deep. For the second time in two innings,
Votto scored.
Votto连看三球(第三球是好球)，然后挥第四球，接着5、6球一低一高，选到保送。
然后下个打者把球送出球场外，Votto连续2局得分。
For all the talk about how Phillips has been a better run-producer than
Votto, here’s something to consider. Absolutely, Phillips has been clutch in
2013. He’s timed his hits for pretty critical spots. With runners in scoring
position, Phillips has posted a 2.1 Win Probability Added in 169 plate
appearances. Votto, meanwhile, has posted a 1.8 WPA in 152 plate appearances.
Adjust to give them the same denominator and there’s hardly any difference.
In terms of actually helping the winning cause with runners in scoring
position, Votto and Phillips have been just about equally valuable. This
despite Votto’s walks and Phillips’ RBI.
每个说法说Phillips是比Votto为更好的得分制造机，都必须考虑一些东西。
当然的Phillips今年是比Votto为更为关键的红人打者，RISP下Phillips在169个打击
机会中缴出了2.1的Win Probability Added(WPA,胜出机率提升指数)，而Votto在152
次机会中则是1.8。
然而调整过后Phillips跟Votto两人在RISP中对球队的贡献是几乎相同的。
The simple fact is Votto is both disciplined and good. Because of the
discipline, he’ll work a lot of counts and he’ll draw a lot of walks.
Because of the talent, sometimes he’ll be pitched around in bigger spots.
This year, with runners in scoring position — and excluding intentional
walks — Votto has seen the fourth-lowest strike rate in baseball. That’s
strike rate, not zone rate, but clearly, Votto isn’t seeing pitchers
aggressively pound the zone. They’re aware of what he can do, and they don’
t want for him to beat them.
基本的事实就是Votto选球非常好，因为选球好，让投手投多球，然后他选一大堆保送。
今年在RISP下(包含故意敬远)，Votto打击时看到的好球比例是第四低的。
这表示Votto并没有看到投手积极的把球投进好球带内。投手都惧怕Votto能做到的，而且
他们不希望他击败他们。
In theory, Votto could try to swing at more strikes with runners in scoring
position. In reality, he’s already selecting the strikes he deems to be most
hittable, so swinging at other strikes would presumably yield worse results.
And it’s almost impossible to increase swings at strikes without also
increasing swings at balls, and that’s something people shouldn’t want
Votto to do. For a hitter, a ball is always a good result. Swinging at a ball
can lead to a better result, but more often, it’ll be a small or large
mistake.
理论上Votto在RISP情况下应该挥击更多球。但事实上他已经选择挥击他想要挥的球，
所以挥击其他好球只是会造成更糟糕的结果。而且在多挥击好球的情况下是不可能
不增加挥坏球的机会的，而这点正是人们不希望Votto做出来的表现。
对于打者而言，坏球永远是好结果，挥坏球可能有好结果，但更常见到的是错误。
Using information at Brooks Baseball, I dug into Votto’s career. Here are
some relevant splits:
从Brooks Baseball，我看了Votto的生涯成绩。
BABIP
In-zone(好球带内): .389
Out-of-zone(好球带外): .318
Isolated slugging
In-zone: .317
Out-of-zone: .100
Contact
In-zone: 83%
Out-of-zone: 67%
When Votto has expanded his zone, he hasn’t been a disaster. But he also hasn
’t been particularly productive. He certainly hasn’t hit for much power,
and he’s had a tendency to whiff. With more swings, Votto would generate the
occasional RBI hit, and people would notice. They wouldn’t always notice the
increased number of outs, but that would happen and that would matter. There
are people who want more flash, more explosions. Votto, instead, prefers the
slow burn.
当Votto放宽他的好球带，他其实还不算灾难，但是他并没有特别多的产生。他并没有
出现更多砲瓦，而且更容易挥空。当他多挥棒，他可能会产生更多的RBI(人们会注意)，
但是他们不会注意到那些多出来的出局，而这些出局可能相当重要。有些人偏好火光、
爆炸。但是Votto只是让火缓慢的烧。
As a final helping of information, Votto has actually been slightly more
aggressive this season with runners in scoring position. With runners not in
scoring position, he’s swung at 39% of pitches, and 21% of pitches out of
the zone. With runners in scoring position, he’s swung at 41% of pitches,
and 24% of pitches out of the zone. The differences are so small that they’
re hardly remarkable. But what he is with the bases empty, he is with the
bases not empty. That’s Votto’s comfort zone, and taking a guy out of his
comfort zone will reduce his effectiveness. Votto’s comfort zone, as we all
know, has led to some absolute OBP silliness.
最后提到，其实这球季Votto已经比先前在RISP上更为积极了。没有跑者在得点圈上时，
他挥击39%的球，其中21%是好球带以外；但在RISP上他挥击41%的球，24%在好球带之外。
这其中的差距实在太小，所以没人注意到。不管是垒包清空还是相反，Votto都做相同
的事情。这就是Votto的安逸区(XD)，如果把人拖离这区域都会降低他的效率。
而Votto的安逸区就是对于OBP的坚持。
There are ways that Joey Votto could be a better baseball player, because he
isn’t perfect. There have been pitches he’s taken with runners in scoring
position that he probably could’ve hit. Likewise, with runners in scoring
position, there have been pitches Brandon Phillips shouldn’t have swung at.
This is just who Votto is, and there’s little sense in complaining about an
elite player when he’s performing at an elite level. There are people who don
’t particularly care for Votto’s patience. There is a person with a .435
OBP and a 159 wRC+. One of those is Joey Votto. Defer to the guy who reaches
base all the time. He probably has the hitting thing figured out.
有很多面向来说Votto都可以是更好的棒球明星，但是人非完美的。
有些球在RISP时，Votto会挥击，同样的有些球在RISP时，是Phillips不应该挥的。
当精英球员表现出菁英水准，这些抱怨没多大意义。是有些人不在意他在打击区的耐心。
有个人有.435的上垒率外加wRC+:159，这人就是Joey Votto。