※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之铭言：
: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/the-royals-and-the-case-for-defense
: 很多东西说几百遍(从冬天)就不全翻了，另外这篇只讲数据
: 看之前请默唸"无形价值"十遍..
: The Royals and the Case for Defense
: ... I won’t harp on the fact that Myers is tearing it up in Tampa Bay and
: has been worth nearly as much, by wins above replacement (WAR), in 49 games
: as Shields has been all season (2.0 for Myers to 2.5 for Shields).
: At this pace, Myers would easily have been more valuable this season for the
: Royals than Shields has been, and even if his pace slows down, the upgrade
: from Jeff Francouer to Wil Myers is bigger than the upgrade from the
: available free agents to James Shields. And that’s only this season and
: doesn’t even consider the long term cost of losing Myers for 2015 and beyond.
: Myers打半季的成绩已经快追上 Shields了
: 从个别位置来看 Myers - Francouer > Shields - other FAs
: 换言之，挖的洞比补的洞大，这还不考虑未来的状况
: But leaving that all aside, the Royals needed a bat more than they needed
: pitching. Entering Sunday they stand 12% below league average using a catch
: all offensive statistic called weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which puts
: them 12th in the American League. The Royals management misjudged their team.
: They did not have a surplus offensive talent and a dearth of pitching options.
: 皇家误判情势，打击没有多余的深度足以拿出来交易，而且没有其他投手选择
: More importantly still, and the focus here, is that the Royals haven’t
: pitched that much better in 2013 than they did in 2012. They didn’t make a
: big upgrade on the mound, even if they’re allowing fewer runs. They’ve only
: improved marginally.
: 洞补的够好吗，其实只有进步一些
: ...Last year they ranked 7th in the AL in pitcher WAR. This year they’re 6th.
: 列了一些数据(略)，从投手WAR来看，在美联进步一名
: But their ERA has dropped from 4.30 to 3.50. Nearly a full run. If you prefer
: to look at all runs, allowed, the story is the same at 4.62 and 3.80 from
: 2012 to 2013. The Royals are giving up fewer runs but only pitching a little
: bit better.
: 失分比去年下降很多，这是让某些人觉得补对的迷思
: The answer is so obvious that it’s easy to miss. The Royals are playing
: dramatically better defense. Trading Wil Myers for James Shields isn’t why
: they’re giving up fewer runs. They’re giving up fewer runs because the
: defense is turning batted balls into outs much more efficiently in 2013 than
: they did in 2012.
: 真正的原因在于皇家的防守大幅进步
: Defensive statistics aren’t perfect, but when the two leading numbers are
: telling you almost the exact same thing, it’s wise to listen. The Royals
: have made huge defensive gains in 2013 and it’s responsible for nearly all
: of their progress in the standings. They are currently 9 games better in the
: standings than they were through 122 games last season. Defense accounts for
: nearly all of that and they’re still out of playoff position.
: UZR说皇家靠防守多赢了7场，DRS说多赢了6场，而他们现在比去年多赢了9场
: The Royals are doing an excellent job preventing runs this season, but it’s
: not because of some terrific improvement in their pitching staff. Their
: hurlers are better, but only marginally so. The big difference is their much
: improved defense. Last season the Royals pitchers gave up more runs than
: their FIP suggested they should and this year they lead the AL with an ERA
: that is 0.40 runs better than their FIP. The key to the Royals’ success is
: an amazing defense, not an improved staff. They could have given the ball to
: Kyle Lohse or Ryan Dempster instead of James Shields and the defense would
: still be making all of these great plays. And they’d still have Myers
: slugging .503.
: 去年 FIP> ERA，今年 ERA则比 FIP少了0.4分
: 你可以签肉丝或是蛋皮，防守可以罩他们就像罩 Shields一样
: 然后还有 Myers在手上
: The Royals are first in baseball in UZR and only trail the Diamondbacks in
: DRS. This is one of the best defensive teams in the league and it’s a big
: reason why they’re winning. They could be preventing runs this well even
: without James Shields and they could be doing it while scoring more thanks to
: Myers who, ironically, could end up being the difference between the Rays
: making the playoffs and the Royals missing out.
: 减少失分是皇家今年进步的关键，投手帮了一点点忙，主要来自于防守
: 没有 Shields他们一样可以做到，如果 Myers还在还能多拿一些分数
各位键盘学长 请容许小弟我问几个简单的问题 再来评估换Shields该不该做
1. G7 in WS或是外卡骤死赛 你手中的排是Shields Lohse or Dempster 你要谁上?
摸著良心阿
2. 假设你球队开季rotation长这样
no.1
no.2 Santana
No.3 Guthrie
no.4
no.5 KC曹锦辉
就算你一直喊 绝对没有黑画面
这种阵容摆明了每打五天先输三场 还不保证你有投手可以把1跟4那两场局数吃完
你怎办?
想想你去年队上ERA最好的sp是KC曹锦辉???
3. 假设你是FA投手 30中了 想要捞一张最后一年约 也想顺便拼拼看有没机会捞戒指
你会去有情有义有粉味的东岸强权 投的鸟鸟的还有队有掩护 炸鸡啤酒也无限供应
还是去中西部穷乡僻壤 钱不一定给的比较多 但是已知连输10几年了
你去哪?
KC在FA争夺上 是有很大优势逆?
FA可能签的比人贵人家还不一定要来 你换不换?
4. 既然有人提到Dempster Lohse那我们们看看
Dempster 到今天4.77era 1.47 whip 36岁
Shields 3.19 1.27 32岁 谁优?
有人会说 Dempster在美东 好吧 那去年他在TEX ERA破5
Lohse看起来很不错 但别忘了 他在比较_的联盟
他在MIN那几年 ERA没有低于4!
也许随着年龄增长啦 blahblah 他现在回美联会比较好 but who knows
但要是我是GM 有个proven winner big game pitcher 我为啥要签比较老的浪人?
不要再来Lohse Dempster了
再我看来 KC要Shields是觉得他们可以换到一个Appier 而不是再去签一个Cil Meche
5. 文章说到 KC今年靠防守赢了6-7场 而他们今年目前只比去年多赢了9场
先不要说防守数据我觉得可改进度跟WAR大概不相上下
就算照原文 作者的其中一个重要论证是
利用UZR跟DRS 一个比较偏电脑衍算法一个用人工评断的守备数据
来说明守备比起去年 帮"整个"投手群多守了很多分
所以投手的补强相对不是关键blahblah
但别忘了 我们要看的是 补了Shields以后 比起"去年这个位置上的人" 他能有多大提升
我们不会真的相信补了Shields
其他人像Guthrie就有能力加乘 KC曹锦辉就变成KC韦兰德吧
所以你老兄拿原文作者提到的守备帮"整队pitching staff"守下很多分
想要来说明 补强Shields没多大效应跟KC成绩进步不大相干 好像不是个很好的方法
我相信KC防守救了投手不少
但 假设那些防守刚好帮到Santana Guthrie比较多? 看看Santana这两年成绩?
拿这个来论Shields到底有没有补的好 好像有点鸟XD
真要来比较 一个不是最好的方法 但再下觉得比上面这方法好的
Shields进来补的位置 应该就是去年Hochevar那个no.1 sp的位置
你要算成J Sanchez也可以
这两个人去年整年度quality starts总共有13+1=14场
但到今年为止 Shields已经有20场了 AL第一
也许可以看成 球季没打完 补强Shields比起没补强 已经多给球队6场机会赢球了
要是算一整季 补强Shields比起没补强 可能可以多11场QS 多11场赢球的机会
(KC组织内也没人可以补上这个洞)
这巨不巨大?
91胜跟80胜?
另外给Hector
Peter Gammons的确很常关注除了红袜以外的球队
他是红袜迷 但是他资格老 所以圈内小道消息多
但这篇是Neil Weinberg的文章 不是Gammons
这篇风格一看就跟他的文章不同
Gammons不是数据派 他文章大多也不是从否定一个人切入
他会先blah这是个美好的球季 有谁表现好 某队有谁又表现出啥talent更不用说还有谁
然后再来一些他的小道消息
业内小道消息可读可信度又比较高的
除了他大概就是真正干过gm人脉广 真的是很多gm学长的Jim Bowden
最后 请问各位键盘学长
大家是看过几场Myers比赛 看过他几个打席? 对他的预期成绩大概是怎样?
对他的pitch selection跟攻击低球的能力有没有兴趣研究?
还是看看BA FB选了一下爽了一阵子就将?
假设他长成Longoria 换Shields
假设他成绩比较像Josh Willingham 换Shields?
假设他成绩比较像Hunter Pence 换Shields?
假设他成绩比较像Hank Blalock 换Shields?