Jhoulys Chacin and the Miraculous Record
by Dave Cameron - July 24, 2013
http://ppt.cc/bFtv
Thanks to our friends at Baseball Info Solutions, we have batted ball
information dating back to 2002, which gives us data on 11 full seasons and
60% of the 2013 season. It might not be quite as catchy of a time frame as
the “Dead Ball Era” or “Steroid Era”, but it’s our own little stretch of
baseball that we care about. Sometimes I refer to it as the “UZR era”,
since that’s one of the more common stats cited that uses batted ball data,
but other stats have the same timeframe here on the site.
One of the more common batted ball stats cited around here is HR/FB ratio, as
the data has shown to be not particularly predictive, yet can have a huge
impact on a pitcher’s results. If he’s giving up fly balls that are staying
in the yard, that can lead to very good results — hello, Matt Cain and Jered
Weaver — but those results can also be kind of fickle, as 2013 Matt Cain is
demonstrating with aplomb.
Still, despite the inconsistent nature of seasonal HR/FB ratio, we have
enough data to establish some norms for Major League pitchers. From 2002 to
2012, only one pitcher in Major League history had thrown 100 innings in a
season and allowed fewer than 4.0% of their fly balls to leave the yard; that
pitcher was, of course, Matt Cain, in 2011. 2011 Cain represented a pretty
realistic floor, as it was the best HR/FB season from the biggest HR/FB
outlier in the game.
Okay, so Cain’s 3.7% HR/FB ratio isn’t held in quite the same esteem as Joe
DiMaggio‘s 56 game hitting streak or Cal Ripken‘s 2,632 consecutive games
played, but hey, it’s still a record. A FanGraphs record, sure, but I have
no problem counting it as a record, since I write for FanGraphs and all. It
might not be the most prestigious record on the books, but it’s still a mark
that represents a pretty neat accomplishment.
It’s also an accomplishment that is currently under fire from one of the
least likely sources on the planet. Right now, Jhoulys Chacin has a 2.8%
HR/FB ratio in 120 innings pitched, making it the best season by that mark
since BIS started tracking batted ball data. That list includes 1,654 pitcher
seasons of at least 100 innings. Not a single one of those 1,653 other
seasons has resulted in a lower HR/FB ratio than what Chacin is posting right
now.
Jhoulys Chacin pitches in Colorado.
Even with the humidor, Coors Field is still one of the most homer friendly
ballpark in the Majors. Our data has the park with a home run factor of 114,
meaning that a pitcher for the Rockies would be expected to post a home run
rate 14% higher than they would pitching for a team that plays its home games
in a neutral ballpark. The humidor has offset some of the effects of playing
at altitude, but it hasn’t eliminated them entirely. And so Chacin is making
a run at posting the lowest HR/FB ratio in recorded history while playing
half of his games in a ballpark that specializes in turning fly balls into
home runs.
Perhaps most amazing is that Chacin hasn’t really demonstrated any kind of
special home run prevention skills prior to this season. Coming into the 2013
season, 10.9% of his fly balls had gone over the fence, pretty much in line
with what you’d expect from a Rockies starter. He’s not a fly ball pitcher
who gets a ton of infield popups, as other HR/FB outlier pitchers are. He
doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts either, which has been identified as a
marker of a pitcher who can post a slightly lower than average rate of homers
on fly balls. He’s not left-handed, he doesn’t throw the knuckleball, and
he doesn’t play in an extreme pitchers park.
If you had been told before the season started that a Major League starting
pitcher was going to make a run at posting the best HR/FB ratio in the last
12 years, Chacin might have been one of the very last people you took. Joe
Blanton probably would have been the very last, but Chacin would have been
standing around looking at Blanton when everyone took their final picks. And
yet, here we are, and after 19 starts, he’s allowed just three home runs.
Kelvin Herrera gave up as many home runs in one appearance — which lasted
2/3 of an inning and involved him facing six batters — as Chacin has while
facing 493 batters all year.
You might say “aha, more proof that steroids testing is working, and driving
all the power hitters out of the game”, except the average NL pitcher is
giving up home runs on 10.3% of his fly balls this year, which is right in
the same range it has been since the data started getting collected. There’s
no real evidence that contacted balls are flying over the fence at a reduced
rate now than they used to; there are just fewer contacted balls. Chacin,
though, isn’t one of the pitchers driving up the league’s strikeout rate. He
’s a pitch-to-contact guy, and he’s a pitch-to-contact guy in a ballpark
where contact is most harmful.
You probably don’t need me to tell you that Chacin is unlikely to keep this
up. There’s outlier performances, and then there’s this. There’s still two
months to go, so odds are good that Cain’s record will stand by the time
Chacin finishes the season. But it’s kind of incredible that we’re even
talking about this. Jhoulys Chacin pitches in Colorado, and he pitches to
contact, and he’s not giving up home runs.
Baseball.
简单说
2002年以来 HR/FB比的最低记录是Cain在2011年的3.7%
今年却有一位投手有机会破这项记录
就是洛矶队的Chacin 目前HR/FB 3.4%
P.S. 原文是2.8% 但是在7/28的比赛中 Chacin被青木轰了一发 所以上升到3.4%
蛮有趣的~