※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之铭言：
: http://tinyurl.com/bqf3bb2
: is an overrated play.”
: Using the expected runs matrix at Baseball Prospectus (using 2012 data),
: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1122396
: runners on first and second with no outs yields 1.44 expected runs, while
: runners on second and third with one out yields 1.29 expected runs.
: 1.44>1.29 上太空的西瓜!!
: Theoretically, one would slightly reduce run expectancy by bunting. However,
: the certainty of scoring that one run goes up. Furthermore, bunting creates a
: more realistic opportunity for production than letting Loney, who posted a
: .630 OPS last season, swing away. Though I, like Maddon, think that bunting
: is overrated in many circumstances, that was not one of those situations.
: 但是给ＬＯＮＥＹ打就输了ＧＧ
这段的重点不在Loney。
作者要表达的是，，虽然期望值较高，但变异数也大，在这种比赛最末段，
只要得一分就很关键的情况下，既然都能够得一分，为什么不选得分机率较高的bunt?
比赛前段或是打击大战用bunt当如不如用free swing
但也不能光用期望值就直接判断bunt一定比较差 像比赛末段一分差决胜负
要重视的是variance rather than the expected value.
与其说西瓜上太空，不如说又看到一个乱用数据的人 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ