※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之铭言：
: http://tinyurl.com/bqf3bb2
: is an overrated play.”
: Using the expected runs matrix at Baseball Prospectus (using 2012 data),
: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1122396
: runners on first and second with no outs yields 1.44 expected runs, while
: runners on second and third with one out yields 1.29 expected runs.
: 1.44>1.29 上太空的西瓜!!
: Theoretically, one would slightly reduce run expectancy by bunting. However,
: the certainty of scoring that one run goes up. Furthermore, bunting creates a
: more realistic opportunity for production than letting Loney, who posted a
: .630 OPS last season, swing away. Though I, like Maddon, think that bunting
: is overrated in many circumstances, that was not one of those situations.
: 但是给ＬＯＮＥＹ打就输了ＧＧ
这段的重点不在Loney。
作者要表达的是，，虽然期望值较高，但变异数也大，在这种比赛最末段，
只要得一分就很关键的情况下，既然都能够得一分，为什么不选得分机率较高的bunt?
比赛前段或是打击大战用bunt当如不如用free swing
但也不能光用期望值就直接判断bunt一定比较差 像比赛末段一分差决胜负
要重视的是variance rather than the expected value.
与其说西瓜上太空，不如说又看到一个乱用数据的人 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ

cannot agree with you more

推

讲的好像bunt一定会成功一样

哪里有讲得像bunt一定会成功一样= =?

变异数应该就已经考量bunt失败了吧只是考量后变异数还是较小

重点是Loney啊 who posted a .630 OPS last season

如果打的人是Pujols 你根本就不会去考虑触击 就算他是DP王

原文根本没说什么Variance的问题, 只是0出局1,2垒有人虽然比1出局2,3垒有人多得一点分, 但得一分的机率1出

2,3垒有人是比较高的, 打到九局1比1得一分就赢,还想多

得一点分, 何况还遇到上季ops只有.630的Loney

其实西瓜还有一个错误 统计数据可以广泛应用在的结果 不可

直接套用单一案例(Loney)身上...很明显这两件事是不同的事