※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之铭言：
: ※ 引述《alex710707 (#12WvKThD 水准???)》之铭言：
http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/01/16/the-fundamental-flaw/
There are some true statements in there. John Jaso does have big platoon
splits. The Mariners did have a bit of a glut of C/1B/DH types. John Jaso is
coming off a career year, and he won’t repeat his numbers from 2012 again.
The problem comes when you try to stretch all those true statements together
to form a rational defense of trading a younger, cheaper, more valuable
player for one who is simply worse overall.
水手把比较便宜而且比较好的球员换成比较差的
The only way to view Morse as an improvement over Jaso is to think in a
particularly narrow minded way, seeing players primarily through the lens of
labels, mostly defined by their hitting abilities. Mike Morse is a “power bat
”, John Jaso is a “part time player”. And who wouldn’t rather have a guy
who can hit cleanup rather than a guy who needs to sit on the bench
regularly?
除非把Jaso看成是板凳 Morse看成是重砲
John Jaso, with his inability to hit left-handers and his poor throwing arm,
is still an above average Major League catcher. He’s comparable in overall
value to Alex Avila, who was the starting catcher for the team that just won
the American League. Because there are so few catchers in baseball who can
hit, even a bad defender who can hit right-handers like Jaso can puts him in
rare company. Even limiting him to just 450 plate appearances, due to strict
platooning, Jaso’s career average grades out to about +2.3 WAR. If you
assume that any of his 2012 improvement was real, and that he’s better than
a straight career average, then he’s closer to a +2.5 to +3.0 WAR player.
Jaso有固定上场的话会是平均以上的捕手
Now, no one has figured out how to perfectly evaluate everything a catcher
does. We can make a pretty good guess at the obvious things, like controlling
the running game and keeping pitches from going to the backstop. Those things
are already included in WAR, since they’re not that hard to measure. There
are other parts of catching that are not easy to measure, and are not
included in WAR, so no one is claiming that WAR is the gospel truth here.
Jaso could easily be a worse player than WAR calculations suggest. In fact,
given his defensive reputation, that’s probably the truth. So, hey, let’s
just knock a win off of his value, in addition to the penalty he’s already
getting for allowing stolen bases and blocking balls in the dirt. Let’s call
him a +1.5 to +2.0 win player, assuming that there really are big parts of
catcher defense that we can’t accurately measure, and assuming that Jaso is
terrible at those things.
就算真的防守很差 也有1.5~2.0胜的价值
Guess what? That’s still better than Mike Morse. Dan Szymborski released his
ZIPS projections for the Nationals a few weeks ago, and he has Morse at +1.4
WAR in 2013. Because, quite simply, there’s more to baseball than hitting
home runs, and Mike Morse is pretty terrible at every part of baseball that
isn’t hitting home runs.
反观Morse今年的预测只有1.4 WAR
For a more detailed breakdown, you can read this post I wrote on Morse last
week. We go through his offensive projections (still pretty decent!), but
also through his defensive value (awful), his baserunning skills (lousy), and
his durability (not good). Despite all the talk about Morse being a “full
time player”, he’s dealt with a litany of health problems during his
career, and has only managed to play more than 102 games once in his career.
You simply can’t project Morse as a 150 game regular next year, and his
deficiencies in the field and on the bases cut into his value even when he is
in the line-up.
Morse痛痛 防守烂 跑垒烂
Morse has power. His power is valuable. It helps make him a decent player
even though he doesn’t do anything else at a Major League level. In a lot of
ways, Morse is similar to Kendrys Morales, in that his power tool is good
enough to carry him despite being a pretty one dimensional player. It’s
useful to have these kinds of players, but if you don’t do anything besides
hit, you better be a spectacular hitter. Morse is not a spectacular hitter. He
’s a decent hitter, an above average hitter, but he doesn’t walk, he
strikes out a decent amount, and he doesn’t run the bases well. When you
only do one thing, it significantly limits your value.
只有打击不错 其他方面糟糕 这样的价值是不高的
So, in reality, the Mariners are swapping an average-ish player (if you give
Jaso a big penalty for catcher defense) for an average-ish player. Only, the
average-ish player they’re receiving has one year left on his contract,
while the average-ish player they’re giving up is under team control for
three more years. Even if you ignore the roughly $6 million difference in
salary, Morse would have to be a significantly better player than Jaso to
justify giving up two extra years, as the Mariners have done here.
水手把便宜用三年的换成贵贵打工一年
Because the Mariners already have a glut of 1B/DH types, Morse is almost
certainly going to get a decent amount of playing time in the outfield. Right
now, he displaces Wells as the third starting OF — despite the fact that
Wells is probably Morse’s equal in terms of value going forward — and moves
Wells and Bay into a competition for the fourth OF job. If the Mariners
wanted to keep both, they could theoretically option Smoak to Tacoma, then
use Bay in the outfield against lefties with Morse shifting to first base,
which is the role Smoak was slotted in for when we did the exercise the other
day. Or, if Bay shows nothing in spring training, then the could just cut him
and go with both Smoak and Wells as reserves. The problem is that there wouldn
’t be much playing time for either one, and the lack of defensive
flexibility would cause the team some real problems with in-game strategy.
Morse取代的是输出和他差不多的Wells
The Mariners didn’t need offense. The Mariners needed talent. The Mariners
didn’t get a talent upgrade today. They turned one piece into a less
valuable piece, all because the new guy does the thing that that everyone has
been wanting to see more of; hit home runs. Home runs are nice, but the 1990s
Mariners should have taught everyone that home runs don’t win games. Runs,
of all shapes and sizes, win games. And Mike Morse won’t help the Mariners
outscore their opponents any more than John Jaso would have.
水手需要的是才能 而交易是把手上的货换成比较差的
得到的只是多几发全垒打 却不见得能多赢几场比赛
Just like with the Brandon Morrow swap, this is just the Mariners
misevaluating a player they had, because they focused too much on what he wasn
’t good at. Just like the Brandon League acquisition is looked back on as a
silly one, so will this. The Mariners paid a premium to not get better in the
present and cost them some value in the future.
就跟Morrow的交易一样差