http://tinyurl.com/aza3n67
The argument on Trout’s behalf isn’t all that complicated: he provided the
greater overall contribution to his team. Trout was a much better defensive
player than Cabrera, and a much better base runner. And if Cabrera was the
superior hitter, it wasn’t by nearly as much as the triple crown statistics
might suggest.
很简单 Trout的跑垒和防守大胜 就算Cabrera打击比较好 也顶多只好一些而已
Over all, Trout contributed about 12 additional runs on the basepaths when
compared with an average runner. The bulky Cabrera, by contrast, cost the
Tigers about three runs on the bases.
Trout跑垒多拿12分 Cabrera跑垒少拿3分
One of these systems, Ultimate Zone Rating, estimates that Trout saved the
Angels 11 runs with his defense in the outfield. Cabrera, a clumsy defender
at third base who is more naturally suited to play first base, cost the
Tigers 10 runs with his.
Trout防守多守11分 Cabrera防守多失10分
Between his defense and his base running, therefore, Trout was about 35 runs
more valuable to the Angels than Cabrera was to the Tigers. By contrast, the
14 additional home runs that Cabrera hit (44 against Trout’s 30) were worth
about 22 extra runs for the Tigers, based on measures that convert players’
contributions to a common scale.
Trout在防守和跑垒上领先35分 Cabrera多的14轰大约只值22分
Angel Stadium is shallower in straight center field, making up for much of
the difference, but since most of Cabrera’s home runs came to the power
alleys, playing in Anaheim would likely have hurt his statistics on balance.
Trout, who hits to all fields, is less sensitive to his ballpark, and had
slightly better overall numbers than Cabrera in road games.
天使球场比老虎球场难打击很多 客场打击数据Trout比Cabrera略好
But much of the difference simply reflects the fact that Cabrera hits third
in the batting order, and had more opportunities to hit with runners on base.
His 89 R.B.I.’s with runners in scoring position came in 205 plate
appearances, a rate of 0.43 R.B.I.’s per opportunity. Trout’s 53 R.B.I.’s
came in just 135 opportunities, since he is the Angels’ leadoff hitter. That
yields a similar rate of production: 0.39 R.B.I.’s per plate appearance with
runners in scoring position.
两个人的打点有差 但修正RISP的机会后 两人的打点率大约都是0.39RBI/RISP
In fact, there are now systems, like Win Probability Added, that measure all
aspects of clutch performance in a comprehensive way. They account not just
for the number of runners on base and the number of outs, but also the game
score and the inning. A grand slam when a team trails by three runs with two
outs in the bottom of the ninth turns a near-certain loss into a win, giving
a player maximal credit by this system. A grand slam when a team already
leads 7-0 gets little credit, since the game is already in hand.
According to this measure, Trout was actually slightly more valuable than
Cabrera as an offensive player, considering the timing of his contributions.
Add in his defense and base running, and it isn’t all that close a call.
用WAP来看关键表现 其实Trout关键火力比Cabrera稍好 再加进防守和跑垒的话
胜负已经很明显了
It may seem hard to argue against a player who won the triple crown. But
Cabrera’s numbers, while worthy of an M.V.P. award in many seasons, weren’t
historically great. His batting average, R.B.I. and home run totals would
also have qualified for the American League’s triple crown in 2008. Before
that, however, you would have to go back to 1972 to find a year in which his
numbers were good enough to lead the league in all three categories.
虽说Cabrera是三冠王 但数据上并不是历史级的好
同样的数据在过去40年只会在2008和1972两年同样是三冠王
There is also the fact that Cabrera’s Tigers made the playoffs, while Trout’
s Angels did not. But the Angels won more games (89) than the Tigers (88),
missing the playoffs because they played in a harder division. Trout,
moreover, began the year in the minors; the Angels went 81-58 in games in
which he participated, equivalent to their winning 94 games over a full
season.
老虎进季后赛 但天使胜场数比较多
Trout打满整季的话天使胜场会是94胜
Still, the real progress in the statistical analysis of baseball is in the
ability to evaluate the contributions that a player makes on the field in a
more reliable and comprehensive way.
数据衡量球场表现的精确度变高很多
Perhaps 10 or 20 years ago, when evaluations of base running, defense and
clutch hitting were murkier, stat geeks would have argued that Cabrera
deserved the M.V.P. on the basis of the hard evidence.
若是在十几二十年前 计算跑垒防守还不精确的时代
数据派或许会依据手上的事实支持Cabrera
Now that some of the “intangibles” have become measurable, we know that
Trout did more of the little things to help his team win.
但现在 一些所谓的"灵性"已经可以被计算 我们知道Trout做了更多的基本功来帮助
球队赢球
It’s the traditionalists who are using statistics in a way that misses the
forest for the trees.
传统派才是用数据却见树不见林的一派