嘘 Eshow:比打击卡布赢不了 哈哈 10/05 02:35
http://tinyurl.com/98qkdru
RE24 is essentially the difference between the run expectancy when a hitter
comes to the plate and when his at-bat ends. For example, September 16th,
Cabrera came to the plate against Joe Smith with runners at first and second
and two outs, a situation where the Tigers would be expected to score 0.33
runs on average. Cabrera hit a three run home run, so they actually scored
three runs, and RE24 gives Cabrera credit for +2.67 runs, the gap between
what they were expected to score and what they actually scored.
RE24是拿来衡量"实际"得分的工具 举例来说 Cabrera有次在二出局一二垒有人的局面
上场打击 二出局一二垒有人的期望得分是0.33分 而Cabrera打了三分全垒打
那Cabrera这次打击的"实际"贡献就是3-0.33=2.67分
Here’s the AL leaderboard for this season. If you don’t want to click the
link, I’ll just reproduce the top five here.
1. Mike Trout: +56.52 runs
2. Edwin Encarnacion: +54.44 runs
3. Prince Fielder: +48.12 runs
4. Joe Mauer: +46.51 runs
5. Miguel Cabrera: +45.18 runs
Trout在RE24排名第一 Cabrera排第五
So, why is Trout ahead of Cabrera? And, for that matter, why is Cabrera
behind even his own teammate, Prince Fielder, as well as two others who are
not in the MVP discussion?
为什么Cabrera"实际"制造的分数会小于Trout 甚至低于队友Fielder呢?
It comes back to double plays. I noted a few weeks ago that Cabrera had hit
into an AL leading 28 double plays. Turns out, a bunch of those were big-time
rally killers. 12 of the 28 double plays Cabrera hit into lowered the run
expectancy by at least one run; Trout only had two plate appearances all
season where the run expectancy went down that much in a single play. Because
RE24 is available for every play, and easily accessible from the play logs, it
’s easy to put each player’s individual performances into groups, so we can
see the distribution of their offensive events.
双杀打 Cabrera的28双杀中 有12次降低期望得分超过1分 Trout只有两次打席有降这么多
Player +1 and up 0 to +1 0 to -1 -1 and down
Trout 54 269 388 2
Cabrera 77 219 406 12
Cabrera had 23 more highly visible significant offensive plays that generated
+1 runs or more than expected based on the situation he was placed in. Those
plays are extremely valuable, and Cabrera was credited with 97 runs in those
77 plays. Meanwhile, Trout only created 66 runs in his 54 big plays, so we’
re looking at a 31 run advantage for Cabrera in high visibility plays. This
is what’s driving Cabrera’s narrative – everyone remembers these plays,
and saw Cabrera come through in big situations more often than they saw Trout
do the same.
Cabrera多了23次大举灌分的表现 多灌进了31分 这些表现让大家印象深刻
However, Trout makes up the gap — and then some — in the other 600+ plays
that matter as well. While he had 23 fewer big positive plays, he had 50
additional smaller positive plays, all of which contributed to the Angels
offensive performance. He also had 28 fewer negative value plays, including
10 fewer that were extremely negative, thanks primarily to his ability to
stay out of the double play.
但Trout在小细节上多了50次小加分的表现 另外还少了28次扣分
包括少了10次的终结攻势 主要是避免双杀的能力
You can go through each player’s play logs and see exactly where they earned
and lost credit. There’s no replacement level here. We’re not dealing with
defensive metrics that require some subjective inputs and can’t be easily
replicated. This is just pure offense, and the total value of all the plays
that both Trout and Cabrera were involved in.
看一下实际纪录就知道得分和失分的表现 这里不考虑什么替代水准
也不看防守 就只看"实际"打下的分数
And Trout still comes out on top. Ignore defense. Ignore things like going
first to third on a single, or taking the extra base on a fly ball. Ignore
WAR. Trout still wins. This is how amazing his season actually was. Even if
you strip away the things that make Mike Trout special, he was still the best
offensive performer in the American League this year, even while starting the
season in the minors. This isn’t just the best performance of 2012 – it’s
one of the best individual performances in the history of baseball.
而Trout还是赢过Cabrera 不看防守 不看跑垒 不看WAR Trout还是赢
他还是美联实际攻击力的第一名
这不只是2012最佳表现 - 这是史上最佳表现之一