http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120921/OPINION03/209210445
Detroit — You wanna talk about WAR, fine. Let's chat.
Personally, Wins Above Replacement, an advanced stat that attempts to measure
how many more victories a player is worth than if he were replaced on the
team by a minor league or bench-level player, is far from perfect. It's
simply not the end-all.
If it was, Alan Trammell, not Ozzie Smith, would've been the first-ballot
Hall of Famer.
如果WAR有用的话 那第一次就入选名人堂的就会是Alan Trammell而非Ozzie Smith了
Now tell me, is Miguel Cabrera seriously worth fewer than seven victories
compared to if a Mud Hens-caliber player had been playing instead of him for
the Tigers this season?
Cabrera对老虎的贡献不到七胜???
Because, folks, that's what WAR suggests.
这就是WAR告诉我们的
And to me, that's ludicrous, regardless of how limited Cabrera's range is at
third base.
WAR also tells us Angels center fielder Mike Trout, 21, the sexy pick for AL
Most Valuable Player by most in the national media, is worth at least two
more wins to his team than Cabrera is worth to his Tigers. Never mind that
Trout didn't even join the Angels until an April 28 promotion from the minor
leagues.
Trout场次少不少 WAR却高了超过两胜
WAR gives the edge to Trout, of course, because of his league-leading 46
stolen bases and 118 runs, and his Gold Glove-caliber defense. In turn, WAR
doesn't seem to care much that Cabrera is making a historic pursuit for a
Triple Crown, leading the league with a .333 batting average and 130 RBIs,
while running second, by one, with 41 home runs.
因为46次盗垒 118得分和金手套 WAR给了Trout优势
但WAR却不在乎史诗般的三冠王
I've had folks tell me lately that even if Cabrera wins baseball's first
Triple Crown since 1967, Trout remains the MVP pick. My apologies. I simply
cannot comprehend that.
1967后首次三冠王还拿不到MVP? 我无法理解
But fans of Sabermetrics, these new-age stats that attempt to give you an
all-around worth of a player, actually will tell you — and with a straight
face! — that batting average and RBIs are irrelevant today.
但赛八的粉丝总是告诉你 打击率和打点没用
There might — might — be the case with batting average, because that
doesn't necessarily tell you how clutch or how much of a run producer a
player is. There were some in Seattle who thought Ichiro Suzuki could have
hit many more home runs, but didn't because he wanted his batting average to
stay sky high.
打击率 或许是吧
But RBIs? Really? Irrelevant? The critics like to say that's only a
measurement of how often guys get on ahead of you. Well, to that I have a
two-word response: Delmon Young.
但打点是靠队友??? 我只能给你两个字: Delmon Young
Trout, to be fair, is a leadoff hitter. He's guaranteed to come up at least
once a game with nobody on in front of him. Cabrera bats third — and with
the year Austin Jackson has had — and gets plenty of shots with runners on,
regardless of the black hole that has been the Tigers' No. 2 slot.
So to compare Trout and Cabrera, you must be a little more creative.
Here's what I came up with. Cabrera drives in a run 37.8 percent of the time
with runners on, and 50.6 percent with runners in scoring position. Trout, by
comparison, is at 35.5 percent and 48.1 percent.
垒上有人时 Cabrera有37.8%的机率打回分数 RISP时是50.6%
Trout则分别是35.5%和48.1%
And let's talk about what the player means to his team. For starters, the
Angels are more likely to miss the playoffs than the Tigers. That matters.
But let's look past that. In terms of runs and RBIs, Cabrera has accounted
for 28.2 percent of all Detroit's runs; Trout, meanwhile, is at 23.5 percent.
And even had Trout been up on Opening Day, it would've taken an historic
April to be beating Cabrera there.
Cabrera贡献了老虎28.2%的分数 而Trout只有23.5%
There are other advanced metrics that Saber fans cite, including wRC+, or
runs created. There, per FanGraphs, Trout actually edges Cabrera by two runs,
171-169. They are baseball's leaders. Of course, Cabrera wins in other areas
Tigers manager Jim Leyland might call "geek" stats, including on-base
percentage (.398-.392) and slugging percentage (.613-.551), and thus OPS
(1.011-.943).
Cabrera在宅宅数据-上垒率/长打率/OPS 也都领先
Then there's what a player's meant to his team when it matters — in crunch
time.
关键时刻更是如此
In August and September, with the Tigers clawing to stay in the American
League Central race, Cabrera is batting .360 with 16 homers and 45 RBIs in 44
games. Trout had an OK August (.284, seven homers and 19 RBIs), but he's darn
near disappeared in September (.257, two homers, three RBIs).
Cabrera在八九月大杀四方 反观Trout
八月还可以 九月就烙赛了
What does that mean? If the Tigers make the playoffs — and it's very
possible, considering the White Sox tough closing schedule — it'll be
because of Cabrera.
如果老虎进季后赛 这都是Cabrera的功劳
And if the Angels miss the playoffs — a very likely scenario — it'll be, in
part, because of Trout.
而如果天使没进季后赛 - 非常有可能 - 则是因为Trout的过错
Now, I ask you, is that an MVP? That's for 28 of my peers to decide; I don't
have an MVP vote this year.
这样算是MVP吗? 这得交给28位票选者来决定 我今年没有选票
But if that is an MVP, then let me say this: Voters better be consistent and
make Tigers ace Justin Verlander the Cy Young winner for a second straight
year, because he leads the major leagues in WAR, too, not contenders Felix
Hernandez or David Price.
但如果这也算是MVP 那票选者最好也把赛扬奖选票给Verlander
因为他是WAR领先者
By the way, here's another thing FanGraphs' WAR tells us, folks: Anibal
Sanchez (3.1) and Rick Porcello (2.9) are worth more to their team than
Angels ace Jered Weaver (2.7) is to his. Never mind that Weaver is 18-4 with
a 2.79 ERA. What do those stats matter anymore?
顺便一提 FanGraphs上的WAR显示 Anibal Sanchez (3.1)和Rick Porcello (2.9)
都比Jered Weaver (2.7)更有价值
Weaver可是18-4 2.79 ERA呢
FanGraphs, interestingly, comes up with different WARs than
Baseball-Reference.com. They arrive at the same numbers for home runs, RBIs
and average, however.
Look, I'm not saying WAR and wRC+ and other Saber stats are rubbish. Not at
all, actually. We're in the greatest technology era, with number crunching
made easier. So there absolutely is a place in baseball for evolution of
statistics.
我不是说赛八的数据是给人打脸用的
But at the expense of completely disregarding telling stats that have been
around for 100-plus years?
Let's please not go there.
但为了赛八的数据 就要放弃用了100多年的老朋友吗?
最好不要