楼主:
searoar (æš—å‘大豆)
2012-04-25 10:52:55http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/wainwright-and-pujols-rough-starts/
Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking
over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk
rate and power.
Currently Albert has a career low 7.1% BB%. It is less than half of what it
was just 2 years ago. It might seem that this value is not much of a concern
because he is not being intentionally walked as much. Albert has been
intentionally walked 3.3% of the time over his career. By subtracting out the
intentional walks and the non-intentional intentional walks (IBBump), here
are his walk rates and corrected walk rates over the past 5 years:
Year: BB%, corrected BB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%
2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
His corrected BB% was similar from 2008 to 2011. This season it has been cut
in half. He is definitely not being walked as much.
A reason he may be seeing more strikes is that pitchers don’t fear him as
much as they did in the past because of a lack of power (0 HRs in 2012). Here
are his ISOs from 2009 to 2012:
Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
2012: 0.108
It would be nice to have Hit FX data to see exactly if he has been hitting
the ball weaker or in the air more. GameDay data, while not perfect, does
give us some clues that he is just not getting as much distance behind his
hits. Here are his 2011 and 2012 batted ball locations from texasleaguers.com:
两张图
So far in 2012, Albert has not even put a ball near the warning track. To
further illustrate the point, here are the average distances of his fly balls
and home runs from 2010 to 2012 as taken from baseballheatmaps.com:
Year: Distance
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
2012: 275 ft
One possible explanation for the drop in power this season is that he is not
yet familiar with the pitchers in the AL. MGL over at The Book Blog looked at
how hitters and pitchers did once they became more familiar with each other.
Here is his conclusion:
.. there is a large advantage to the batter when he has faced
a pitcher a lot in the last year.
Albert should expect to hit better as he becomes more familiar with the
pitchers in the AL.
Albert is displaying a lack of power that has been trending down the last few
years. On top of the power decline, he is not walking as much even when IBB
are taken into account. I would not recommend selling on him just yet. He
should see an increase in production as he becomes more familiar with AL
pitching. It might be a time to see if his owners are getting impatient with
him and try to buy low.
作者:
yeng1217 (σ`∀′) ゚∀゚)σ)
2012-04-25 10:53:00竟然没翻 等等zkow来说教啦
作者:
Pujols5 (Albert Pujols)
2012-04-25 10:54:00退化了T________T
作者: redsuck 2012-04-25 10:54:00
你没翻 完了 等等ZKOW又要说话了
作者:
yeng1217 (σ`∀′) ゚∀゚)σ)
2012-04-25 10:55:00你没翻 zkow有看到
作者:
kazumi66 (ふぅ☆Bryce♪(*′ω‵*))
2012-04-25 10:55:00等等就有人说你排斥英文不佳的板友(摊手)
作者:
Mooooose (养乐多'牛丼'披萨'笋干)
2012-04-25 10:55:00结论:美联比较__
作者:
kabigon (凯尔)
2012-04-25 10:56:00惨了惨了 这样会不会因为ZKOW 导致你被桶呢
作者: kungen (DK imba) 2012-04-25 10:56:00
国联比较_______
作者:
kucat (吃奇异果的猫)
2012-04-25 10:56:00你没翻 zkow有看到
作者: kurt28 2012-04-25 10:57:00
你没翻 zkow有看到
作者:
jayin07 ( ⊙o⊙)
2012-04-25 10:58:00这作者是投过AS的那位吗?XD
作者:
zkow (逍遥山水忆秋年)
2012-04-25 10:58:00蛮无聊的,这是版风问题,请不要拿我来造成原PO压力
作者:
asd25 (别闹了)
2012-04-25 10:59:00你幻想的板风喔
作者:
zkow (逍遥山水忆秋年)
2012-04-25 11:00:00我不讲了,无端惹尘埃
作者:
kabigon (凯尔)
2012-04-25 11:00:00可能是他活在另外一个PTT 也说不定
作者:
hu6111 (HU0402)
2012-04-25 11:00:00哈哈,因为某人又要被锁文了吗?
作者:
yeng1217 (σ`∀′) ゚∀゚)σ)
2012-04-25 11:04:00zkow条款要出来桶人了吗xD
楼主:
searoar (æš—å‘大豆)
2012-04-25 11:07:00哈 果然没人讨论 这就是这里的版风吧
作者:
zkow (逍遥山水忆秋年)
2012-04-25 11:07:00我再呼吁一次,请不要针对本人推文而淹盖了本文的讨论 谢谢
作者: seancycu (阿翔) 2012-04-25 11:10:00
某楼坏了这篇文章的讨论
作者:
WLR (WLR™)
2012-04-25 11:10:00没伤的话早晚会调整回来的
作者: lyrimo (睿谋) 2012-04-25 11:18:00
z尻:超爽的 又有一堆人陪我聊天了 弥补我空虚的心灵~>///<
作者:
Sechslee (ï½·ï¾€â”â”(゚∀゚)â”â”!!)
2012-04-25 11:21:00刚换联盟 再给多点时间吧
作者: shenglun (KaoBei) 2012-04-25 11:31:00
某个人就别在那假了.....
作者:
a910148 (梨)
2012-04-25 11:39:00下滑好多喔~ 大约还很长-..-
作者:
aaa80437 (O-Ha-Na!!!!)
2012-04-25 12:15:00不爽不要讲 XDD
作者:
lahugh (you must die)
2012-04-25 12:18:00看这标题以为普砲开彰张了
作者:
KuoRod (中华队八局守护神!!)
2012-04-25 12:18:00温馨 大家只在乎版友 不在乎普神
作者:
yeng1217 (σ`∀′) ゚∀゚)σ)
2012-04-25 12:22:00才打没多久而已急躁什么
作者:
pasaword (P幣拿來)
2012-04-25 12:23:00有米老鼠在 谁来都一样
作者:
koil (雞兔哥)
2012-04-25 13:15:00逢普必嘘 天使真的签错了
作者:
lookers (实体店面 货到付款 宅配)
2012-04-25 13:43:00十年风险本来就很大 不过时间还长 就继续看下去吧
作者:
xephon 2012-04-25 13:48:00过两个月又回火星 大家又在那边普神普神的叫了= =
作者: zach0312 2012-04-25 13:54:00
好幼稚的推文 真的觉得时间还早
作者:
ccl007 (.......)
2012-04-25 13:58:00两个月的 Who is Hot就够了 XD
作者: HXZ 2012-04-25 14:26:00
拿爽约了
作者:
tunababy (相信妳自己,真的....)
2012-04-25 14:50:00在这个时间点,其实Angels还蛮暗爽在心里的就是...
作者:
cd12631 (<(◥█◤△◥█◤)>)
2012-04-25 14:50:00再打一个月再说啦
作者:
cd12631 (<(◥█◤△◥█◤)>)
2012-04-25 14:51:00不过这季如果很鸟的话 国联大概会被酸到爆吧
作者: iluy ( ) 2012-04-25 15:05:00
您为何要这么急咧
作者:
kuyung (无敌暴龙)
2012-04-25 15:10:00别忘了去年红雀最后一刻压低价格他才会跑去天使的...
作者:
tunababy (相信妳自己,真的....)
2012-04-25 15:12:00哦..我少打了一个字....在这个时间点,其实Angels fan 还蛮暗爽在心里的就是...
作者:
externaload (Vision of disorder)
2012-04-25 15:30:00zkow:请不要因本人ID而废了整篇文章
作者: white75724 (忙中偷闲) 2012-04-25 16:22:00
国联王
作者:
laiyuhao (很黄很暴力)
2012-04-25 16:26:00MLB版应该改名叫英检版才对 不会英文的活该去死囉?