Thoughts on the Eric Hosmer Promotion
by John Sickels on May 6, 2011 12:15 PM
Additional Thoughts on Eric Hosmer
There seems to be a split among Kansas City Royals fans about the promotion
of Eric Hosmer. Some think it is crazy and short-sighted, others think it is
a wise move. Here is my position.
First, some points of clarification.
关于Eric Hosmer的一些心得
皇家球迷对于Eric Hosmer升级有些分歧的看法。某些人认为此举白烂短视，某些人则认
为这是明智的作法。首先我有几点必须澄清。
Point One: I'm a Twins fan, not a Royals fan. I follow the Royals very
closely because I live nearby, but I'm not a particular fan of the team. I
don't hate them either, but I don't have an emotional concern here. I don't
have Hosmer on a fantasy team,
第一点：我是双城迷，不是皇家迷。非常关注皇家是因为我家住附近。但我没特别迷那队
，也不讨厌他们，简单来说没有主观的意见。玩fantasy也没有加Hosmer。
Point Two: I am generally against rushing players, and I think most players
benefit from a full year at each level. This is not a hard-and-fast rule that
applies to everyone, but I think it is a useful guideline. I would rather be
too conservative about promoting a player than too aggressive.
第二点：大体上我反对揠苗助长，在每个层级都打满整季对大多数球员才是比较有好处的
。虽然这铁律不一定适合每个人，但我认为这是有效的准则。对球员升级的做法
是宁可超保守也不可胡乱躁进。
Point Three: As a GM, I think Dayton Moore has done a lot of things right in
terms of building the farm system, drafting well, and (most importantly)
convincing ownership to actually put money into the team. It's amazing what
your scouts can do when you actually have the resources for player
development, which was the biggest problem in KC previously. On the negative
side, many of Moore's moves on the major league roster haven't worked well,
and in my view there seems to be an excessive fetish for ex-Braves in the
organization.
Overall, it's a mixed picture, but the organization is certainly in
better shape than it was five years ago. I'm neither a basher nor a booster,
and am quite willing to see how "the process" works out. Maybe it is just
easier for me to take that approach since I'm not emotionally invested, but
that's the way I see it.
第三点：作为总管，我认为Dayton Moore在打造农场系统方面有很多好评，除了选秀选得
不错外，最重要的是，居然能说服老板掏钱出来投资球队。
过去愿意多花点资源来养农场的话，球探的工作成果才会让你惊喜。
这也是KC之前最大的问题。
而 Moore的负评是在大联盟名册上搞的许多举动实在有点鸟，在我看来大家
似乎是过度迷信这位前勇士最佳总管了。
总体而言，球队优缺点全部掺在一起做濑尿牛丸。但可以肯定是该队比五年前强
很多。我不是酸民也不是护驾王，但我很愿意看到“这过程”如何解决。提出建
议对我来说很简单，因为我对皇家没啥感情，何况当局者迷旁观者清。
Point Four: I have been pro-Kila Ka'aihue, possibly because I've been
watching the guy play in the minors for many years at the A, AA, and AAA
levels. I've seen him at his worst, locked in a long slump, his swing messed
up, unable to handle either good fastballs or breaking stuff. I've also seen
him at his best, when his swing is working well and he's destroying everything
thrown his way. I still think he's capable of hitting enough to be useful in
the majors, and that 326 plate appearances spread out over three seasons isn't
a true test of his ability, especially given that he often needs adjustment
time at new levels. Given enough playing time, I think he would figure thing
out well enough to be at least a useful complementary platoon bat.
第四点：我是比较支持 Kila Ka'aihue啦，大概是因为这家伙打小联盟时，我就一路看他
从A 到AA最后爬到3A等级。我曾经看到他脸上写我好惨，不只长期处在低潮，挥
棒动作乱七八糟，速球和变化球也处理不了。但我也看过他脸上写我很屌，当他
挥棒很顺时，他可以打爆往他投来的任何东西。而且我仍然认为他的打击天赋在
大联盟是够用的，过去三季打了 326个PA不够显示他的能力，特别是在高阶你必
须给他足够的调整时间以及上场空间。我想他也非常了解起码得当个有用的辅助
棒才能上场。
Point Five: I think promoting Eric Hosmer is the right thing to do for team.
The major league team is playing decently. Even if they win just 85 games,
that could be enough to contend for the division title this year. There is a
morale factor to consider here: the organization itself is tired of losing
and the fan base entered the season rather demoralized and impatient.
The front office is well-aware of this factor (Moore made that point to
me himself this spring), and even a .500 season would go a long way towards
boosting spirits in the city and the front office.
Hosmer, right now, is unlikely to be weaker with the bat than Kila
currently is, has a good chance to be better, and is a superior defensive
player. If the Royals were in last place and had no chance to compete, then
sure, you're screwed anyway, so give Kila another 300 at-bats to see if he
can figure things out. But that's not the situation right now. They have a
chance to be decent this year, and Hosmer is more likely to help them stay
that way than Kila is, as it currently stands.
第五点：我认为把Eric Hosmer 拉上来对球团来说是对的。这支大联盟球队目前打的还不
赖。就算他们本季只赢85场好了，拿分区冠军还是很有可能的。但他们士气可能
会是败笔，虽然球队讨厌输球，但进场的球迷一点都不热情也没啥耐性。
球团高层非常清楚这点(在春天时Moore亲自告诉我的)，就算本季以五成胜率结尾
，距离振奋这城市人心和高层的目标，还有很长的路要走。
现今的Hosmer的棒子目前看起来不比Kila弱，甚至有机会更强，而且是个守备优
越的选手。假使皇家名次现在是倒数的，没机会挑战季后赛，那肯定的是，你现
在会靠北。那么顺便再给Kila 300个打数看看他是否可以脱离低潮吧！不过现在
不是那假设的情形，本季皇家有机会打个帅气的一年，Hosmer对球队的帮助可能
比Kila还多。
Point Six: There are two reasons not to promote Hosmer: if you think it would
harm his long-term development, and money, and I don't think either of these
issues overrides point five.
Hosmer is destroying Triple-A. Everything I'm hearing about his
performance indicates that it isn't a fluke, and that the Pacific Coast
League doesn't have much left to teach him about hitting. I am generally
opposed to rushing players, and I think that most players benefit from a full
season at each level. But there are exceptions, and Hosmer looks like one to
me. I don't think bringing him to the majors now is a significant risk to his
career.
As for the money issue, we don't know if the whole "super-two" service
time issue will even be a factor once the new Basic Agreement comes into
play. Even if it does, if Hosmer turns out to be as good as expected, you're
going to have to pay him the big bucks, anyway. If the team plays well this
year, the club's finances will improve anyhow. I am generally very much an
advocate of long-term thinking, but if bringing Hosmer up now increases my
chance to contend this year, then I'm not going to worry so much about what
the team's salary structure is going to look like in 2015.
第六点：反对者有两个理由认为不该拉Hosmer：此举这会伤害他长期的成长，以及让
球队增加薪资负担。但这两个理由不足推翻第五点。
Hosmer目前是屠杀3A的状态。我所听过他的任何表现都显示出那不是侥幸，
且Pacific Coast League已经没东西可以敎他打击了。基本上我反对仓促拉
拔球员，还有我认为大多数球员每个层级都打满整个球季才是最有好处的。
但有例外，Hosmer对我来说就是其中之一。我不认为现在拉他上大联盟会伤
害他的棒球生涯。
至于钱的方面，在新的基本劳资协定发挥作用前，我们不知道薪资仲裁议题
是否会是个问题，假设那造成问题，那也是说Hosmer已经好到可以期待，而
且你得付笔大条的薪水给他。如果皇家今年也打的不错，那么球团的财务负
担肯定会增加。但我主张把眼光放远，把Hosmer拉上来增加我们球队今年的
竞争力，球队薪资结构会变成怎样要到2015后才需要担心。
My basic conclusion is this: given all these factors, balancing the long-term
and short-term needs of the organization, and even as a person who is
pro-Kila, I would promote Hosmer, too.
I would then turn my attention to
1) Finding someone to replace Kyle Davies, who is just not going to improve.
I AM averse to promoting Dan Duffy too quickly, and don't want to see Duffy
up before mid-July.
2) Finding some additional outfield depth; Gordon, Cabrera, and Francoeur
won't stay hot forever, especially if you keep playing them every single day
3) Disabuse myself of the notion that Jason Kendall has anything left in the
tank, and look for some catching. Luke May and Manuel Pina at Omaha aren't
the answer.
4) Drafting Bubba Starling
我的基本结论是：
综合所有观点，如何把球团的长期需求和短期需求平衡才是最重要的一
件事。即便我身为一个支持Kila的球迷，我还是会推荐Hosmer上来打。
然后把我的注意力放在
1.找个人取代不长进的Kyle Davies，我也反对太快拉Dan Duffy，起码
七月中之前不想看到他。
2.寻找增加外野深度的战力：Gordon，Cabrera，和Francoeur的棒子不
会持续火烫太久，特别是你每天都放他们上场。
3）反省自己关于Jason Kendall还有压箱宝的错误观念，找一些捕手吧
。在Omaha的Luke May和Manuel Pina并不是答案。
4）把Bubba Starling选进来
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