http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-colorado-rockies5/
Five questions: Colorado Rockies
by Ben Pritchett
April 01, 2011
How much does $237.5 million buy you in today’s economy?
两亿三千七百五十万美金可以买什么?
: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, that’s what. Both players saw their
: stock as baseball players rise to meteoric levels.
Tulo跟Cargo，就这样。趁著自由球员市场火热的时候，这两个球员选择与洛矶队签下
近乎包含整个生涯的合约。
: In 2010, Tulowitzki won his first Gold Glove award. Baseball Info Solutions
: gave him its Fielding Bible Award. He didn’t captivate the world just with
: his glove. He garnered much of his attention from his Ruthian September, in
: which he hit 15 home runs and had 40 RBI. Only Babe Ruth himself had a better
: singular month than Tulo.
2010 Tulo拿到个人第一个金手套，同时也拿到防守圣经奖。但是他不只有手套。
没有人能够忘记10年9月的Tulowitzki，那个月他打了15支HR、40分打点。
历史上有人单月成绩比他好吗? 有的，那个人叫做Babe Ruth。
: The beautiful thing about him is that he is just 26 years old, and he plays a
: stellar shortstop. Health permitting, he should be considered the best
: overall shortstop in baseball. If you look at his 10-year $157.75 million
: contract, one should think that the Rockies got an incredible bargain on such
: a magnificently gifted athlete. He always will face doubters who question his
: ability to stay healthy, but he will never face doubters of his talents and
: abilities. His signing gives the Rocks a name they can build their franchise
: around. Denver isn’t a huge edifice of baseball, but the foresight and
: fortitude to find the cash to lock down a superstar of Tulowitzki’s caliber
: should be applauded, especially in a market dominated by the Northeast.
想想他才26岁，健康的话会是整个大联盟最棒的SS。这样看来，10年1亿五千多万的合约对
洛矶来讲，真是赚到囉。不过，虽然不曾有人质疑他的天分与能力，Tulo却常被质疑他无
法保持健康。签下Tulo，成为洛矶的基石。虽然丹佛不是棒球重镇，不过能够挖到金矿，
把Tulo这种巨星绑住，还是值得鼓励。
: Don’t fall asleep on Gonzalez. Just recently George Karl of the Denver
: Nuggets, of all places, compared the “smoothness” of CarGo to that of the
: great Roberto Clemente. Where Karl errs in that comparison is that Gonzalez
: hit 34 home runs in 2010. Clemente’s career high for a single season was 29.
: Another possible difference is in that oh-so-lovely stolen base department.
: Gonzalez stole 26 bases in 2010; Clemente never swiped more than 12 in a
: single season. The batting average compares nicely. Gonzalez hit .336 last
: year, and Clemente was a career .317 hitter.
听到Cargo的名字别睡着。最近丹佛金块队的总教练George Karl才把Cargo的流畅动作与
名人堂球星Roberto Clemente(生涯3000安，却在飞往尼加拉瓜赈灾途中坠机身亡)比较
不过Karl可能没搞清楚一点，Clemente生涯单季最多轰也只有29，Cargo去年打了34。
而且讲到盗垒，Gonzalez更是略胜一筹。Cargo去年打击率.336，Clemente生涯.317。
: I don’t think anyone believes that Gonzalez will conclude his career with a
: comparable career average. The “smoothness” that Karl is referencing may be
: most noticed in the defense of Gonzalez, the 2010 Gold Glove winning left
: fielder. Clemente finished his career with 12 Gold Gloves mining the right
: side of the outfield. He was arguably the greatest fielding right fielder of
: all time. Gonzalez should hope that he will one day be that good. The Rockies
: have invested $80 million over the next seven years on the hopes that
: Gonzalez will be nearly as good as Clemente.
我不认为Gonzalez最后能有类似的生涯打击率。这边Karl所提到的"流畅动作"，应该是指
他的守备。Clemente生涯拿了12座金手套，被认为是史上防守最好的右外野手之一。
Gonzalez拿到2010金手套，洛矶希望最后他能表现得跟Clemente一样好。
: I believe that as the life of these contracts becomes more and more
: intertwined with the Rockies' ability to operate, they will have a negative
: impact on Colorado’s ability to fill the gaps. Pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez's value
: should continue to rise, and managing the payroll beyond the three stars will
: prove very difficult in a city like Denver. I hope the Rockies have more of a
: plan than putting all their cash in a super-talented, injury-prone shortstop
: and a free-swinging yet equally gifted, youthful outfielder.
我相信当这两张合约走到让洛矶队捉襟见肘时，他们会发现无法把球队的洞给补起来。
毕竟，加上市场价值越来越高的UBall，小市场球队实在很难在三大明星外再补强什么。
洛矶队选择把钱洒在天赋洋溢的两名选手身上，一个是容易受伤的游击手，
另一个是自由挥击的年轻外野手。我希望洛矶球团在补强上有更完善的规划。
Who’s going to close games when Huston Street gets hurt?
街哥受伤的话，谁来关门?
: Only seven current closers have more career saves than Street. He has proven
: himself as valuable an entity to Colorado as any other player on the roster.
: Street had pro scouts salivating as he won College World Series MVP honors
: while playing for Texas. He would then wow us in 2005 when he won the
: American League Rookie of the Year award as a member of the Oakland
: Athletics. His skills are evident as you watch his low 90s fastball tail
: through the zone. He pitches with great poise and often can overpower
: hitters. In 2009, he saved 35 of 37 games in which he closed.
现役球员中，只有七个投手的救援次数比Street多(注1) 他已经证明自己在裤儿湿的能力
在大学时代，Street就让球探流尽口水，同时也拿下了美国联盟2005年新人王。
他的球路充满尾劲，虽然速球只有low-90s，依然能让打者摸不著头绪。
2009年，37个救援机会中，Street只砸锅2次。
: Last season was a different story. He had a late start while dealing with a
: multitude of injuries. We saw his ERA creep back up to 3.61. Over his
: six-year career he has spent over 160 days on the disabled list. He is now
: the prototypical health risk at just 27 years old.
上一季又是另外一回事。在好不容易克服伤痛复出后，我们看到他的ERA飙高到3.61。
超过六年的职业生涯，Street待在DL的时间超过160天。
以27岁的年龄来说，他显然有很容易受伤的风险。
: The Rockies must concern themselves with how to prepare for a possible
: stretch of time without their talented closer. As we examine their roster,
: there’s Franklin Morales who has notched 10 career saves and has the stuff
: to close. But what he has in skills, he will always screw up in his command
: of his pitches. He has never really been as successful as most thought he
: could be when he and Jimenez burst onto the scene in 2007.
因此，洛矶队必须考虑到没有Street在场上的状况。看了看25人名单，我们发现Franklin
Morales具有Closer的资质，同时也有终结者的经验。但是我们也知道，他有控球上的问题
从他跟UBall同时在07年登上大联盟的舞台，Morales从来没有达到人们对他的期待。
: What about Matt Lindstrom? Well he has 43 saves scattered over the past three
: years, including 23 last year as a member of the Houston Astros. Most would
: assume that the signing of Lindstrom was Plan B to Street.
林风暴呢? 他过去三年也有43次救援成功啊! 许多人认为，签下林风暴，就是球团有考虑
到Street有可能会受伤。
: I know the Rockies don’t put much importance in my opinion, but I hope I’m
: not the only one who sees the potential of Rafael Betancourt. I know he’s
: 35, but he doesn’t walk anybody and strikes out well more than a batter an
: inning (89 Ks in 62 innings pitched last year). If I’m the manager and I’m
: looking over this list of relievers. I would always stop on Betancourt. He
: has the skills to be Street's understudy. Let’s hope there’s no need for
: such a job, but Betancourt should be more than capable.
我知道洛矶球团不太重视我的意见，但是我希望我不是那个唯一看出Betancourt潜力的人
他35岁了，但是他不投四坏，三振率又超高(去年89K/62IP) 如果我是总教练，从我今年所
有的投手中，我一定会挑Betancourt。他可以当Street的备胎。
虽然我们不希望这种事发生，但是Betancourt一定能轻松胜任。
Are the Rockies still fun even with a humidor?
有了保湿器，洛矶比赛还有趣吗?
: For years we, the baseball fandom, have been fed propaganda proclaiming the
: humidor as the answer to the home run haven of Coors Field. Anyone who has
: read The Hardball Times Handbook 2011 may have a different feeling. Our boss
: and essayist Dave Studeman detailed evidence displaying that last year may
: have actually debunked the theory that a humidor has cured Coors of its
: propensity for pop.
长久以来，我们都以为保湿器可以解决裤儿湿容易被干砲的问题。不过如果看了
"The Hardball Times Handbook 2011"这本书，或许你会有不一样的感受。
我们的老板跟专栏作家，详述了各种证据，说明保湿器并不如你想的那样
可以让飞球飞得没那么远。
: First, I don’t think most people know what the "humidor" actually is, and
: how it affects the game in Denver. The humidor is a room within Coors where
: the baseballs are kept. This room mimics the environment in which the
: baseballs are made and stored in other locations. Since the air is so thin in
: the Mile High City, humidity’s effect or lack thereof is the foremost reason
: most use to explain why balls fly out of there like school children to recess.
首先，我想大部分人都不知道"保湿器"这玩意到底是什么，更别说如何影响比赛。
保湿器事实上是裤儿湿球场的一个房间，负责保存比赛用球。
这个房间要维持住棒球制造与保存在其他地方的环境。换言之，既然高海拔的空气稀薄
湿度的影响与其缺乏，就变成解释为什么飞球在裤儿湿总像脱缰野马的主要原因。
: Recently Alan Nathan, a physicist, wrote a guest article for Baseball
: Prospectus on the subject. Apparently, Arizona is considering a humidor for
: its Chase Field to copy the success of the Coors Field humidor. It is a
: fascinating read.
不过，最近有一个物理学家，写了一篇讨论这个问题的文章。里面提到Arizona也想为他们
的Chase Field盖一座相似的"保湿器"。这篇文章很有意思。
: One important facet to interpreting the validity of statistics is sample
: size. For example, if I took the final month of 2010 as my projection basis
: for evaluating players for 2011, then Tulowitzki would be the best player in
: the game, followed closely behind by Mike Aviles.
解读数据的时候，一定要看样本数的大小。如果我拿去年最后一个月的数据来预测球员今
年的表现，Tulowitzki一定是最棒的，跟在他后面谁呢，Mike Aviles。
: In his evaluation of park factors, Dave Studeman pointed out that we should
: not place our faith in one year’s worth of data in determining park effects,
: but he also pointed out that the increase in home runs at Coors Field in 2010
: could be signaling several things. Either the data used to anoint the humidor
: as the answer to home runs didn't use a large enough sample size (years) to
: make an accurate determination of its success or that 2010’s 1.50 home run
: ratio was an aberration, and we can expect a correction soon. Either way the
: jury must still be out on whether treating baseballs like a Cohiba is really
: working.
前面提到的棒球专栏作家，在解读park factor的时候，他指出我们不应该看一年的球场
成绩来决定park factor。但是他也说，2010年裤儿湿全垒打产量的增加可能意味着什么
即使是检验保湿器是否成功的数据，样本数也不够大。让我们无法看出，2010年的单场
1.5支全垒打，是否只是短暂的偏差，终究还是会回归正常。无论如何，目前要判断
这种把棒球像Cohida雪茄一样放在humidor(humidor也可指雪茄盒)的做法是否合宜
还言之过早。
: I, for one, enjoy the park factors. I am enamored by the Green Monster at
: Fenway, the short porch in New York, and the windiness of Chicago. That’s
: the unpredictability that we love about baseball. Coors Field should embrace
: its power prowess as all parks should embrace their own unique identities. No
: other sport has all the different venues that we enjoy in baseball, and
: because of that, no other sport has the "hallowed grounds" of an epic
: ballpark.
以我个人来说，我喜欢各个球场都有不同的特性。我喜欢Fenway的绿色怪物、纽约的浅右
外野墙，还有芝加哥的风。这就是棒球的迷人之处：不可预测性。裤儿湿应该以打者天堂
自居，就像其他球场各有其特色。其他运动都不像棒球如此多变迷人，而且正因为如此
也不会有其他运动像棒球场一样还会有"hallowed grounds"的存在。
Is Ubaldo Jimenez a bona fide ace?
UBall是货真价实的ACE吗?
: Armed with one of the most electrifying fastballs, Jimenez cemented himself
: early in the 2010 season as a pitcher to watch. I know that when I saw he was
: pitching on television, I made sure my DVR was recording.
拥有可怕的火球，Jimenez是10球季初最亮眼的投手之一。当我看到他在电视上投球，
马上就把我的录影机打开。
: Jimenez throws nearly 100 mph with incredible movement, and that’s just his
: four-seamer. His two-seamer has equally devastating movement with slightly
: less speed. According to Fangraphs pitch value index, his fastball registered
: as the second best in the majors last year with a rating of 30.0. To give you
: a frame of reference, only 11 other pitchers in the game had a rating higher
: than 20.0.
UBall有将近100mph、尾劲刁钻的速球，这还只是他的四缝线。他的二缝线同样很会跑，
只是速度慢了点。根据Fangraphs的数据，他的速球在整个大联盟中排名第二，拿到30分
30分有多棒呢?其他投手的速球，高于20分的只有11个人。(最高为Tim Hudson)
: His start to the 2010 season was by far the most talked about, especially in
: the fantasy baseball communities. Every “expert” was staking his claim of
: finding him first. I will argue that his lackluster control could be blamed
: on how nasty his stuff is.
现在讲到Uball，很少不提他那惊人的10年开季，特别是在FB社群。每个"专家"要证明自己
的观点，都先拿Jimenez出来举例。不过我觉得，他在控球上的问题，会对他那优异的球路
造成一些影响。
: He is a 200-plus strikeout pitcher who should pitch another 215-plus innings.
: His delivery seems effortless while cranking it up in the high 90s. He’s 27
: years old and uses his power to get groundball rates in the low 50s. People
: must remember that he is accomplishing all these feats, humidor or not, in a
: top three hitter’s park. He is an ace in every sense of the word, and once
: he gains more control of his filthiness he could be a 20-game winning Cy
: Young Award winner very soon.
他本季应该能投出另一个215+局的球季，并且飙出200次以上的三振。尽管飙出high-90s
的火球，他的出手还是非常轻松。他只有27岁，能够用球威把滚球率控制在50几趴。
人们应该牢记，他是在一个极端偏向打者的球场(不管有没有保湿器)，达成这些数据。
不管你怎么定义ACE，他就是ACE。而且只要他能够改善控球，UBall绝对是能够20胜的
赛扬级投手。
How will the West be won?
国西激战谁会脱颖而出?
: The Rockies have all the pieces in place to be successful in 2011. They have
: three good starters. They play good defense. Their lineup has power, speed
: and role players, and 2010’s playoff run should give them the confidence to
: know that the postseason is within reach.
今年的洛矶准备好了。他们有三个好投手，好的防守阵容。打线部分，有砲有腿有替补。
去年与季后赛擦身而过，今年的洛矶队应该要更有信心。
: Obviously health will play a major factor, probably more so for the Rockies
: than other teams in the National League West. Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart and
: Street must stay healthy for the Rocks to compete against the 2010 World
: Series Champion San Francisco Giants or the wildly talented Los Angeles
: Dodgers. I don’t foresee the Padres performing as valiantly as they did in
: 2010. The Padres will not be able to sneak up on anyone, and the Arizona
: Diamondbacks are still a few players off from becoming a real contender.
当然健康很重要，对落矶来讲可能更重要。Tulo、Stewart跟Street，都是球队的基石，
他们必须保持健康，才能跟卫冕冠军旧金山巨人，以及才华洋溢的洛杉矶道奇一较长短
我不认为教士队能打出去年的战绩，他们应该不能当搅局者。至于响尾蛇，他们还缺少一
些球星，让他们能够重返竞争者之林。
: How will the Rockies defeat the Giants? That’s going to be a task. The
: Giants have lost nothing since last year and welcome Brandon Belt, a future
: batting champion to their roster. The Rockies will have to have great
: performances from the back end of the rotation with Jason Hammel and Esmil
: Rogers and have one of their position players step hisr game up, whether
: that's Dexter Fowler or Stewart or more likely Seth Smith.
洛矶怎样才能打败巨人呢? 这也许有点困难。他们的冠军阵容今年卷土重来，还多加了
Brandon Belt这个潜力新秀。洛矶必须在轮值的后段(Hammel、Rogers)有所表现，同时
也要有Tulo、Cargo以外的打者大爆发，像是Fowler、Stewart或者更有可能是Smith。
: I think the Rockies match up much better against the Dodgers in both hitting
: and pitching. Colorado plays better defense and will not be intimidated down
: the stretch if the action is forced under the lights of Tinseltown.
另一方面，我认为今年的洛矶在攻守方面都优于道奇。洛矶的防守比较好，也不会受到
好莱坞刺眼镁光灯的威吓下做出错误决策(这句有点酸...)
: A fight for a wild card spot is more realistic than an outright win of the NL
: West. The Giants have too much of everything to bet against at this point. I
: could see a real battle with Atlanta or Philadelphia into late September. But
: I think the Rockies can give up their dreams of making it much farther than
: that. Maybe next year.
争夺外卡或许比抢下国西桂冠来的实际。巨人的阵容看起来还是非常吓人。我可以预期
费城人与勇士到了九月底还杀的难分难舍，不过我觉得洛矶应该可以让其中一队的外卡
梦碎。他们明年再来吧!
注1: 他们分别是Mariano Rivera(559)、Francisco Cordero(290)、
Francisco Rodriguez (268)、Brad Lidge (222)、Jose Valverde(193)、
Jonathan Papelbon (188)、Brian Fuentes(187)跟Bobby Jenks (173) 应该是8位