What Kind of Numbers can the Brooklyn Nets Expect From Him?
篮网队可以期待林书豪缴出怎样的场均数据呢? http://tinyurl.com/ztsowlr
The Brooklyn Nets are going to play Jeremy Lin in a bigger role than he’s
ever had, and more minutes than he’s ever played. This means a whole
different set of stats for Lin, and this is an attempt to gauge what kind of
offensive numbers we’re going to see from him next season.
篮网将让林书豪承担他从未有过的重大角色, 以及给他比从前更多的上场时间, 这表示
林书豪所有的数据都将变的不同, 也让我们试着去推估下季林会有怎样的攻击端数据
The numbers I was thinking of are these: Lin taking 15 shots per game, going
to the line at least 6 times, and shooting four times from beyond the arc, at
least. Now, there are 7 NBA players with these kind of numbers last season:
James Harden, Paul George, Kyle Lowry, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard,
Isaiah Thomas and Kevin Durant. Is this aiming a bit too high for Lin, or is
it how dominant he’ll be for the Nets? I sorted their seasons by points per
game, assists per game and usage ration.
我是这样想的: 每场15次出手, 上罚球线至少6次, 包含4次三分线出手, 上季有7名球员
有这样的数据: 胡子 & Paul George & K.Lowry & 西河 & Lillard & I.Thomas & KD.
这目标对林书豪来说会太高吗? 还是说这说明了他在篮网队中将会有的主宰性? 连结点
开后可以看到这几位球员相关的数据整理
Is expecting Lin to put up so many shots, and maybe close to these numbers
(20 points, 8 assists per game, or something close to that) being too
optimistic. Maybe. His per 36 minutes numbers from last season: 16.1 points,
4.4 assists per game, taking 12.8 shots a game, including 4 from beyond the
arc and 5.1 free throw attempts per game. Lin averaged 26.3 minutes per game
last season, but only on a 22.2 usage ratio. Kyle Lowry, who shares the ball
with DeMar DeRozan, was the lowest ranked among the 7 players mentioned at
26.1%, and he still averaged 21.2 points with 6.4 assists per game. Everyone
on that list averaged over 21 points per game.
预期林书豪出手这样多次并获得20分8助攻左右的场均, 会太乐观吗? 或许吧, 他上季
数据用36分钟来看会是16.1分4.4助攻场均, 出手12.8次, 包含三分线出手4次, 以及上
罚球线5.1次. 他上季场均26.3分钟, 但只有22.2%使用率.
跟DeRozen一起上场分享球权的K.Lowry, 是这7名球员中使用率最低的, 但也还有26.1%
, 他上季场均缴出21.2分以及6.4助攻, 这7位球员场均得分都高于21分
One thing worth mentioning is three points. Westbrook, at 4.3, is the only
player on that list to take less than 5.5 three pointers a game. He’s also
the only player on that list to make less than 35% of his three pointers. Lin
made 33.6% of his three point shots last season, a decline after the constant
incline he had since the beginning of his career with his outside shot. Maybe
it was the matter of confidence from Clifford constantly using him in
different roles and minutes. Maybe it was his elbow injury, or the new
shooting motion. One thing is for sure: Lin hitting his 3’s at 37.5%-40%
makes him extremely dangerous.
其中值得一提的就是三分球, 西河三分场均出手4.3是这7位球员中唯一低于5.5的, 西河
上季的三分命中率也是这7位中唯一低于35%的; 林书豪上季三分仅有33.6%, 是生涯最低
, 或许这是因为来自Clifford对他的信任导致, Clifford通常给林不同的角色以及不同
的上场时间
但能确定一件事, 就是当林书豪三分命中率来到37.5%~40%之间时, 他是对手眼中最危险
的林书豪
Another thing worth considering is pace. It’s not mandatory: The Raptors
were tied with the Utah Jazz at 92.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and the
Brooklyn Nets were at 95.2, but they’ve constantly been around the lower
regions of the league in recent years. The Rockets, Thunder, Pacers and
Celtics were all ranked in the top 11 in possessions per 48 minutes last
season. The last season Mike D’Antoni coached, the Los Angeles Lakers were
2nd in the league in possessions per 48 minutes. The Atlanta Hawks were 8th
last season in that aspect, with Kenny Atkinson as one of the assistants.
When Lin was playing, the Hornets had a 98.4 pace factor, which would have
placed them 6th in the NBA. Lin being the point guard means high tempo.
另一个值得探讨的是球队节奏pace, 暴龙跟爵士的pace都是92.9, 篮网是95.2却长年在
联盟垫底, 上季火箭雷霆溜马跟青赛全都是联盟前11快节奏的球队; D'Antoni在湖人执
教的最后一季, 湖人pace是联盟第二快; Atkinson上季在老鹰当助教时, 老鹰pace是联
盟第8, 而上季当林书豪上场时黄蜂的pace飙高到98.4, 可以排上联盟第6, 让林书豪当
控卫就表示快速度的节奏
However, Lin is different from the players on this list, who are all
shot-first players. Lin might have been forced into that situation last
season and at times with the Lakers and the Rockets, but he’s first about
making others around him better. Obviously, if the best thing for the Nets
will be for Lin to be their main scorer, he shouldn’t avoid it, but with
Brook Lopez expecting good service, and a lot of players who need someone to
create shots for them, Lin might have an opportunity to put up some
impressive assist numbers, but that 20 points per game might be difficult to
reach with so many players depending on him to operate them.
然而林书豪跟上述7位球员截然不同, 那7位都是"自己出手优先"的球员, 虽然林书豪之前
被迫有过得自己优先出手, 但他还是会优先去让他周遭的队友变得更好.
显然的, 如果对篮网来说让林书豪当主砲手最好, 那林就不该去避免; 但当Brook Lopez
等著更好的供输, 以及许多其他队友嗷嗷待哺等著某人替他们创造更多出手机会时, 林书
豪或许将有机会把他的场均助攻数据推上高峰, 那么场均20分就将会很难去达成, 毕竟那
么多队友都依赖林去替他们创造机会
So is 18 points and 8 assists per game a solid expectation from him next
season? Only three players last season averaged better than 18-8 last season:
Chris Paul, John Wall and Westbrook. But totals and even averages can be
misleading. SO maybe dial down the expectations? To 16 points, 7 assists per
game? Maybe, although we still don’t know the rotation minutes Atkinson is
going to be using. Lin’s biggest season in terms of minutes was in
2012-2013, averaging 32.2 a night with the Rockets, 2640 in total. Assuming
there are no injuries, he should expect around 2800 minutes at least. Point
guards, players who are the basis of everything their team does, play these
kind of minutes, and from the looks of the team the Nets built for this year,
Lin is going to be hard to keep off the floor.
好的, 那18分8助攻对林书豪下季的表现来说, 是个过苛的期待吗? 上季只有三位球员场
均高于18分8助攻: Chris Paul, John Wall跟西河, 那下调一些到16分7助攻??
一切都还无法确定, 因为Atkinson要怎样调度阵容各自的上场时间还不知道; 林场均上场
最多的是2012-13球季, 那时在火箭的他场均打32.2分钟, 该季共打了2640分钟; 所以一
切健康顺利的话, 新球季林应该至少能打2800分钟, 这是一般球队里先发控卫会有的上场
时间, 所以如果再考虑到篮网新球季对林书豪的厚望.......豪期待啊啊!!!