The Death of American Competence
美国国家能力的丧失
原文：Foreign Policy https://tinyurl.com/rxelzmo
译文：观察者 https://www.guancha.cn/StephenMWalt/2020_04_02_545076_s.shtml
作者：Stephen M. Walt
译者：刘笑阳
Washington’s reputation for expertise has been one of the greatest sources
of its power. The coronavirus pandemic may end it for good.
华盛顿当局在专业知识方面的声誉一直是其力量的最大来源之一。然而，新型冠状病毒足
以将之终结。
No matter how the federal government responded, the United States was never
going to escape COVID-19 entirely. Even Singapore, whose response to the
virus seems to be the gold standard thus far, has several hundred confirmed
cases. Nonetheless, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration’s belated,
self-centered, haphazard, and tone-deaf response will end up costing
Americans trillions of dollars and thousands of otherwise preventable deaths.
Even if the view that the dangers may have been exaggerated due to a lack of
accurate data turns out to be correct, Trump’s entire approach to governing
and the administration’s erratic response squandered public confidence and
made a more measured reaction untenable. Despite his denials, he is still
responsible for where the country is today.
无论美国政府如何回应，美国终究无法完全从COVID-19疫情中幸免。截止目前，即便像新
加坡这种在应对疫情方面达到“黄金标准”的国家，也出现了数百例确诊病例。然而，川
普政府那迟来的、利己的、混乱的和音盲般的反应，却会使美国人丧失数万亿美元和成千
上万个本可被挽救的生命。即便“由于缺乏准确数据而使风险被夸大”的观点是正确的，
但川普的执政方式和政府的反应失误，依然挥霍了公众的信心，使其后续采取的更加符合
标准的回应也站不住脚。尽管他矢口否认，但川普依然要对美国今天的状况负责。
But that’s not the only damage the United States will suffer. Far from
making “America great again,” this epic policy failure will further tarnish
the United States’ reputation as a country that knows how to do things
effectively.
然而，这并非美国遭受的唯一损失。这种史诗般的政策失败并没有使美国“再次强大”，
反而会进一步损害美国作为一个行事有效的国家的声誉。
For over a century, the United States’ outsized influence around the world
rested on three pillars. The first was the its awesome combination of
economic and military strength. The United States had the world’s largest
and most sophisticated economy, the world’s best universities and research
centers, and a territory blessed with bountiful natural resources. These
features eventually enabled the United States to create and maintain military
forces that none of its rivals could match. Taken together, these combined
assets gave the United States the loudest voice on the planet.
近一个多世纪以来，美国的全球影响力建立在三个支柱上。第一个支柱是经济和军事实力
的强大结合。美国拥有着全世界最大体量也最高水平的经济，拥有着世界上最好的大学和
研究中心，拥有着得天独厚的自然资源。这些特征最终使得美国能够缔造和维持其竞争对
手无法匹敌的军事力量。这些资产的聚合，使美国在全球拥有最强的话语权。
The second pillar was support from an array of allies. No country every
agreed with everything Washington wanted to do, and some states opposed
almost everything the United States sought or stood for, but many countries
understood that they benefited from U.S. leadership and were usually willing
to go along with it. Although the United States was almost always acting in
its own self-interest, the fact that others had similar interests made it
easier to persuade them to go along.
第二个支柱是一系列盟友的支持。没有哪个国家会赞同美国政府想做的所有事情，甚至于
美国的一些州也几乎会反对联邦政府所寻求或代表的一切。但是，很多国家都明白它们会
从美国的领导中受益，并且通常愿意与美国保持一致。尽管美国几乎总是为了自己的国家
利益而行事，但因为利益一致，美国很容易说服其他国家与她同行。
A third pillar, however, is broad confidence in U.S. competence. When other
countries recognize the United States’ strength, support its aims and
believe U.S. officials know what they are doing, they are more likely to
follow the United States’ lead. If they doubt its power, its wisdom, or its
ability to act effectively, U.S. global influence inevitably erodes. This
reaction is entirely understandable: If the United States’ leaders reveal
themselves to be incompetent bunglers, why should foreign powers listen to
their advice? Having a reputation for competence, in short, can be a critical
force multiplier.
第三个支柱则是对美国能力的广泛信心。当其他国家认识到美国的实力、支持美国的目标
、相信美国官员知道自己在做什么时，这些国家更有可能追随美国的领导。但如果它们质
疑美国的力量、智慧或采取有效行动的能力，那么美国的全球影响力必然会受到侵蚀。这
种反应完全可以理解：如果美国领导人透露出自己是个无能之辈，那么其它大国又为何要
听取美国的建议呢？简而言之，在能力方面享有声誉，可以成为关键的力量倍增器。
The glowing reputation that Americans used to enjoy was built up over many
decades. It was partly a reflection of the United States’ industrial might
and world-class infrastructure: the network of highways, roads, railways,
bridges, skyscrapers, dams, harbors, and airports that used to dazzle foreign
visitors upon their arrival. Victory in World War II, the creation of the
Bretton Woods economic institutions, innovative acts such as the Marshall
Plan, and the successful moon landing all reinforced an image of the United
States as a place where people knew how to set ambitious goals and bring them
successfully to fruition.
美国人曾享有的光辉声誉是数十年建构的结果。这在一定程度上反映了美国的工业实力和
世界一流的基础设施：高速公路、道路、铁路、桥梁、摩天大楼、水坝、港口和机场所构
成的网络，曾经使来到美国的外国游客眼花缭乱。第二次世界大战的胜利和布雷顿森林体
系的建立，以及马歇尔计画和登月计画等创举都提升了美国的形象：在美国的土地上，人
们知道如何设定远大的目标，并最终将其实现。
Even blunders such as the Vietnam War did not fully tarnish the aura of
competence that surrounded the United States. Indeed, the peaceful and
victorious end of the Cold War and the smashing U.S. victory in the 1990-1991
Gulf War exorcized the ghosts of Vietnam and made the United States’ model
of liberal democratic capitalism seem like the obvious model for others to
emulate. Add to that a continued stream of technological innovations—the
personal computer, the smartphone, and all those fancy weapons—and one can
understand why people around the world still looked upon the United States as
a meritocratic, accomplished, and above all, competent country. Small wonder
pundits such as Tom Friedman began to portray the United States as the only
viable model for an increasingly globalized world, telling aspiring countries
that if they wanted to succeed, they had to don the “Golden Straitjacket”
and become more like the United States.
甚至诸如越南战争的失误也没有完全破坏包围着美国能力的光环。的确，冷战的和平结束
以及美国在1990-1991年的海湾战争中所取得的巨大胜利，驱散了“越战的幽灵”，使得
美国的自由民主资本主义模式看上去是可以被效仿的“显学”。此外，持续的技术创新浪
潮（包括个人计算机、智能手机和所有这些花哨的创造），都使得我们可以理解：为什么
全世界都认为美国是一个精英化的、有成就的——最重要的是——有能力的国家。难怪包
括汤姆‧弗里德曼在内的专家们会将美国模式描绘成日益全球化的世界中唯一可行的选择
，他们告诉有抱负的国家：如果想要成功，就必须穿上“金色紧身衣”，就必须变得更像
美国。
Over the past 25 years, however, the United States has done a remarkable job
of squandering that invaluable reputation for responsible leadership and
basic competence. The list of transgressions is long: there is former
President Bill Clinton’s irresponsible dalliance with a White House intern,
former President George W. Bush’s administration’s failure to heed warnings
of a terrorist attack before 9/11, the Enron and Madoff scandals, the bungled
responses to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Maria in 2017, the
inability to either win or end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the
ill-advised interventions in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and elsewhere, the Wall
Street meltdown of 2008, the Boeing 737 Max debacle, the Republican-led
gridlock in Washington, and so on. Nor should we forget the long-concealed
criminal misdeeds of Harvey Weinstein (and many others) and the sordid tale
of the very well-connected Jeffrey Epstein, whose conveniently timed demise
in a New York jail may prevent us from ever knowing the full extent of his—
and others’—misconduct.
然而，过去的25年里，美国在挥霍其宝贵声誉（负责任的领导和具有基本能力）方面却做
得格外“出色”。它们可以拉出一长串的违章罚单：前总统比尔‧克林顿对白宫实习生不
负责任的调戏；小布什政府忽视了“9‧11”之前的恐怖袭击警告；安然丑闻和马多夫骗
局；对2005年卡特里娜飓风和2017年玛丽亚飓风的笨拙反应；无力赢得或结束在阿富汗和
伊拉克的战争，以及对利比亚、也门、叙利亚等地不明智的干预；2008年的华尔街危机；
波音737MAX客机的空难；以及共和党的领导多引起的“政府关门”，等等。我们也不应忘
记哈维‧温斯坦以及其他许多人长期隐瞒的犯罪行为，以及与前者关系密切的杰弗里‧爱
泼斯坦的肮脏故事——他在纽约监狱中的适时死亡，使我们无法完全了解他（以及其他人
）的不法行为。
And all the while the United States told itself it was the greatest country
in the world, with the ablest officials, the best-run businesses, the most
sophisticated financial firms, and the most virtuous leaders. Instead, former
Soviet Premier Nikolai Ryzhkov’s description of life in the Soviet Union may
be a more accurate description of American life than Americans would like to
admit: “[We] stole from ourselves, took and gave bribes, lied in the
reports, in newspapers, from high podiums, wallowed in our lies, hung medals
on one another. And all of this—from top to bottom and from bottom to top.”
与此同时，美国一直自称是世界上最伟大的国家，拥有最具能力的官员、运转最好的企业
、最先进的金融公司和最贤达的领导人。然而，前苏联总理尼古拉‧雷日科夫对苏联生活
的描述，似乎比美国人所承认的更符合美国人的切实生活：“（我们）监守自盗，收受贿
赂，在报告中、报纸里、甚至在讲台上撒谎，一边相互授予勋章，一边沉迷于谎言。整个
国家全都如此——从上到下，从下到上。”
Then came COVID-19. Trump’s handling of the crisis has been an embarrassing
debacle from the start—despite repeated warnings—but it was also utterly
predictable. His long business career has shown that he was more of a showman
than a leader, better at conning people out of money and evading
responsibility than at managing complex business operations. His tawdry
personal life offered equally clear warnings. Since taking office, Trump has
perfected the art of the lie, while gradually purging his administration of
people with genuine expertise and relying instead on B-list hacks,
sycophants, and his unqualified son-in-law. When suddenly faced with a
complicated problem requiring grown-up leadership, it was inevitable that
Trump would mishandle it and then deny responsibility. It is a failure of
character unparalleled in U.S. history, and it could not have come at a worse
time. The amazing thing is that anyone is even remotely surprised.
紧接而来的是COVID-19的爆发。川普对这场危机的处理从一开始就是一场令人尴尬的惨败
（尽管已经被多次警告），不过这种局面也完全可以预见。他漫长的商业生涯验证：相比
于领导者，川普更像是一个表演者；相比于管理复杂的商业运作，他更擅长蒙骗他人和逃
避责任；他杂乱无章的个人生活同样释放出了清晰的信号。自上任以来，川普完善了谎言
的艺术，逐步将管理团队中真正的专家清除，取而代之的则是二线的雇佣文人、谄媚者及
其不称职的女婿。当面临需要成熟的领导才能解决的突发性复杂问题时，川普不可避免地
会处理失当，然后推卸责任。这是美国历史上绝无仅有的角色失败，即便在情况更为糟糕
的时代也不会出现。而令人惊讶的是，人们都只是对此略感惊讶。
How did the United States get here? How did it squander its reputation for
knowing what it is doing, and for being able to get the right things done as
well or better than anyone else? I’m not sure, but let me venture a few
guesses.
美国是怎样走到这一步的？那些知道自己在做什么以及可以做出正确乃至更好选择的声誉
，又是怎样被挥霍掉的？我不能确定，但是我有一些大胆的猜想。
Part of the problem is the hubris that comes from the United States’
remarkably favorable history. It has been by far the luckiest country in the
modern world, and Americans started to assume that success was their
birthright instead of something that needed to be earned, nurtured, and
protected. And with that complacency came a willingness to gamble on utterly
untried leadership, despite all of the warning signs described above.
问题的一部分来自于美国对其辉煌历史的傲慢。迄今为止，美国一直是现代世界中最幸运
的国家，美国人甚至开始认为成功是他们与生俱来的权利，而非必须去争取、培育和保护
的东西。尽管出现了前文所述的诸多警示，但这种自满情绪却使美国人愿意下注在完全没
有经验的领导层身上。
A related problem, I’m inclined to think, has been a broader relaxing of
standards and a refusal to hold people accountable. One can see this at many
universities, where grade inflation is well entrenched, faculty have few
incentives to judge poor work harshly, and more attention is paid to sports
teams than to genuine academic achievement. The recent college recruiting
scandal exposed the lengths to which well-heeled parents would go to get
their kids into colleges for which they weren’t qualified, but universities
have acted similarly when they reserved slots of alumni children (“legacies”
) or for the offspring of major donors.
我倾向于认为，与此相关的另一个原因是：被放宽的评价标准以及拒绝追究民众的责任。
我们可以在许多的大学中看到，成绩通胀的趋势根深蒂固，教师们少有动机对差劲的论文
进行严厉批评，而学生们则将更多的关注放到体育队伍而非真正的学术成就上。最近的大
学招生丑闻更是暴露出一些长期存在的问题：有钱的父母会不遗余力地让孩子进入其力所
不能及的大学，而大学本身也同样为校友子女（“学校遗产”）或主要捐赠者的后代预留
名额。
I’ve focused on higher education because that’s the business I know best,
but this problem is hardly confined there. In the contemporary United States,
CEOs mismanage a company such as Boeing and then depart with
multimillion-dollar golden parachutes. Top officials in the George W. Bush
administration and a chorus of outside cheerleaders deceive themselves and
the country into a foolish war in the Middle East, yet hardly any of them
suffer adverse professional or personal consequences. Wall Street firms can
crater the economy through a combination of greed, indifference, and fraud,
and no one gets investigated, let alone prosecuted. Highly decorated generals
favor “staying the course” in distant battles, fail to achieve victory, and
then retire to corporate boards and influential positions as respected
pundits. Meanwhile, whistleblowers and dedicated public servants strive to
fulfill their oaths of office, only to be vilified, fired, or worse. When
integrity and dedication go unrewarded and failure carries no penalty,
competence is bound to suffer.
我关注高等教育的原因，是因为我对这一行业最为了解，但上述问题却并不侷限于此。在
当代的美国，即便首席执行官们出现管理不善（比如波音），也可以带着数百万美元的“
金元降落伞”离开；小布什政府内的高级官员和外部鼓吹的“啦啦队”欺骗了他们自己和
整个国家，使美国卷入了一场愚蠢的中东战争。可是，他们之中却几乎没有人遭受到不利
的职业影响或个人后果；华尔街的公司可以融合贪婪、漠视和欺诈来重创经济，但没有人
会被调查，更不用说被起诉；功勋卓著的将军们喜欢在遥远的战场中“坚持到底”而又无
法取得胜利，但是他们却可以作为受人尊敬的专家，退休进入公司董事会并谋得高位。与
此同时，告密者和恪尽职守的公务员却因为试图履行誓言而遭到诽谤、解雇甚至更为严重
的对待。当正直和奉献没有回报，而失败又得不到惩罚时，一个国家的能力必然会受到损
害。
To speculate further, I suspect a broader cultural current of selfishness is
at work here as well. Former President John Kennedy was no saint, but he did
devote his adult life to public service and told Americans to “ask not what
your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” By the
time Ronald Reagan became president, however, Americans were being told that
government was the enemy and (to quote the film Wall Street) that “greed is
good.” The market was everything, public service was devalued, and taxes
were for suckers. Having spent decades hollowing out many of their public
institutions, Americans suddenly find themselves unprepared for a real public
crisis. The apotheosis of this trend is Trump himself: How could a serious
country possibly choose as its leader a narcissistic, manifestly unqualified
self-promoter with a long track record of failure and deceit?
进一步推测的话，我怀疑更为广泛的自利文化潮流也是原因之一。前总统约翰‧甘迺迪不
是圣徒，但他确实将自己的成年生活奉献给了公共服务，并告诉美国人“不要问你的国家
能为你做些什么，而要问你能为你的国家做些什么。”然而，当罗纳德‧雷根成为总统后
，美国人被告知：政府是敌人，“贪婪是好事”（引自电影《华尔街》），市场就是一切
，公共服务要被贬低，傻瓜才会去纳税。数十年来，美国人花费大量时间来清理公共机构
，但突然之间，他们发现自己对真正的“公共问题”却毫无准备。川普本人就是这种趋势
的典范：一个严肃的国家，怎么可能选择一个明显不称职的且拥有长期失败与欺瞒记录的
自我推销者作为国家领导人呢？
Am I overstating the case? Perhaps. There are plenty of American firms that
still do terrific and innovative work; there are tens of thousands of
scientists and scholars who remain more committed to searching for truth than
to making a fast buck, and there are politicians and public servants at the
local, state, and federal levels who are more interested in doing good than
in getting reelected or feathering their own nests. There are dedicated
teachers and hard-working students at every level of the U.S. educational
system. But the rot is still widespread.
我是否夸大了这个案例？也许。的确还有很多的美国公司持续著出色而创新的工作，还有
成千上万的科学家与学者们致力于寻找真相而不是赚快钱，还有很多地方、州和联邦的政
治家与公务员更重视善举而非寻求连任或中饱私囊，还有很多敬业的教师和努力的学生在
美国教育系统的各各层级之中。但是，腐败现象也同样普遍存在。
Absent a reversal of this trend, the United States’ global influence will
continue to recede. Not because the country has embraced “America First”
and deliberately chosen to disengage, but because people around the world
will not take its ideas or advice as seriously as they once did. They’ll
listen, perhaps, and they may agree with it from time to time, but the
deference U.S. leaders used to be able to count on will fade. Once COVID-19
is over, Americans are likely to discover to their chagrin that other voices
(Beijing, anyone?) are receiving more respectful attention. That’s not an
omen of imminent disaster, but it will be a different world than the one
Americans have been accustomed to inhabiting. At the margin, the broad
contours of world politics and some important aspects of the world economy
will no longer slant so heavily in the United States’ favor.
如果这种趋势没有得到逆转，美国的全球影响力将会继续衰退。这并不是因为美国抛出“
美国第一”的理念并有意选择脱离世界，而是因为全世界不会像以前那样认真地对待美国
的理念或建议。他们也许会倾听，他们可能会不时地表示赞同，但对美国领导人所寄托的
敬意却会逐渐褪去。一旦COVID-19疫情结束，美国人很可能会懊恼地发现其他声音（中国
，或者其他国家？）得到了更多的尊重。这并不是灾难即将来临的预兆，但这个世界将会
与美国人所习惯的有所不同。在变化的临界地带，世界政治的宽广轮廓和世界经济的某些
重要方面，将不再会如从前一般偏袒美国。
Can this situation be fixed? I don’t know. Cultural rot cannot be fixed by
legislation, executive orders, or even jeremiads like this one. One may hope
that the present crisis will remind enough Americans that having competent
and reliable people in key leadership positions really matters, and that
holding people more accountable for corruption, cronyism, or sheer
incompetence is essential to effective public policies. Whether you favor a
big welfare state or a small libertarian one, you should above all want it to
be competently led and staffed with knowledgeable and dedicated experts.
Whoever the next president is, he needs to staff his administration with
people who have demonstrated qualifications for the jobs they are assigned,
instead of being chosen for their personal loyalty or their talents as
sycophants.
这种情况能够得到解决吗？我不知道。文化腐朽不能通过立法、行政命令，甚至“耶利米
哀歌”来解决。人们或许希望当前的危机能够提醒足够多的美国人：让贤能而可靠的人担
任关键领导职位至关重要，让相关人员为腐败、任人唯亲或完全无能承担更多的责任对有
效的公共政策至关重要。无论你喜欢的是强政府的福利国家还是弱政府的自由主义国家，
你首先应当希望它拥有渊博而敬业的专家，从而可以采取具有能力的领导。无论下一任总
统是谁，他都需要为其政府配备可以胜任被指派工作的人员，而不是那些因为对某个人忠
诚或谄媚才被选中的人。
Americans will need to rethink a political system that recruits and rewards
those who are most adept at selling themselves to the highest bidder. And
there has to be something seriously wrong with a political system that has
devoted many months and spent billions of dollars preparing for the 2020
election and ends up giving the country a choice between three old white
guys. For that matter, Americans ought to rethink whether spending a full
year electing someone to a four year term makes any sense at all. No other
advanced democracy does it this way. And while we’re at it, let’s scrap the
absurd Electoral College, an indefensible relic that systematically
disempowers voters in most of the country.
美国人需要反思这样一个政治体系：获得招募和奖励的都是那些最善于将自己卖给出价最
高的人。而正是这样一个政治体系，花费了数月时间和数十亿美元来为2020年大选做准备
，却最终要让国民在三个白人老头之间做出选择。就此而言，美国人应该反思：花费一整
年的时间去选举一个任期四年的人是否真的有意义？事实上，其他先进的民主国家都没有
采取这种方式。但即使我们现在身处这种情形，也让我们废除荒谬的选举团制度——它确
实是一个不可辩驳的历史遗物，在系统地剥夺全国大部分地区选民的权力。
Looking forward, the possibility of fundamental political change is the only
silver lining I can see right now. America hasn’t faced a crisis like this
since the 1930s and 1940s, and it was in a better position to meet those
challenges then than it is today. But a previous generation of Americans
eventually rose to the occasion, and showed themselves and the world what
their country could do. It is upon Americans now to remember that experience,
put the past few decades of hubris, division, and indulgence aside, and prove
that their country is still competent enough to figure out what it needs to
do. And then they need to do it.
展望未来，政治的根本变革可能是我现在仅能看到的一线希望。当前，美国正在经历自20
世纪30-40年代以来最大的危机，但昔日的美国比现在更能应对这些挑战。当时，上一代
的美国人最终应声而起，向本国和世界展示了自己的国家可以做些什么。现在，美国人必
须记住过往的经历，抛开过去几十年的傲慢、分裂和放纵，证明他们的国家仍然有能力找
到什么需要去做——然后，他们就会去做需要去做的事情。