Disaster in the Desert：Why Trump’s Middle East Plan Can’t Work, Foreign
Affairs
沙漠中的灾难：川普的中东计画为何行不通
原文：Foreign Affairs https://tinyurl.com/y63ahars
作者：Martin Indyk
译文：法意读书 http://www.cwzg.cn/theory/202001/54128.html
译者：黄致韬 (北大法治研究中心)
【法意导言：中东地区是美国地缘政治上的核心利益所在，川普上任之后，美国的中东政
策发生了很大调整。如何评价这一转变？曾担任美国主管近东事务助理国务卿的马丁·印
迪克（Martin Indyk）在《外交事务》（Foreign Affairs）2019年10/11月刊上发表了《
沙漠里的灾难：为什么川普的中东政策行不通》（Disaster in the Desert：Why Trump
’s Middle East Plan Can’t Work），严厉地批评了川普的中东政策。长期以来，美国
在中东的政治对手是寻求区域霸权的伊朗，美国最重要的政治盟友是以色列和沙特阿拉伯
。为了遏制伊朗，季辛吉推动建立的中东秩序，并取得了巨大的成效，其关键是调和以色
列与阿拉伯邻国的矛盾，一致针对、遏制伊朗。但是在建立反伊朗同盟方面，川普试图以
给予以色列和沙特阿拉伯更大的自由政策空间为代价，让两者完全承担遏制伊朗的责任，
而美国以极小的代价全身而退。作者认为，这是不切实际的美好幻想。作者认为，事实证
明，在中东各派势力错综复杂的情况下，给予盟友更大的政策空间将会导致同盟的内斗，
进而削弱同盟，瓦解遏制伊朗的力量。在美国直接制裁伊朗方面，川普表面上采取了极其
严厉的制裁，但是背后却没有足够的军事决心，其出尔反尔的性格也同时削弱了制裁的效
果和盟友的信心。这导致伊朗反击，重新开始核计画。作者认为，这一切是川普不了解中
东极其复杂的现实，同时又刚愎自用造成的，美国的政策应该尽快回到原有的轨道。】
In July 2019, Jason Greenblatt, then U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy for
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, attended a routine quarterly UN Security
Council meeting about the Middle East. Providing an update on the Trump
administration’s thinking about the peace process, he pointedly told the
surprised audience that the United States no longer respected the “fiction”
of an international consensus on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
2019年7月，美国总统川普的巴以谈判特使杰森·格林布拉特（Jason Greenblatt），参
加了联合国安理会关于中东问题的例行季度会议。在提供川普政府对和平进程的最新想法
时，他尖锐地告诉惊讶的听众，美国不再尊重在巴以问题上达成“虚构”的国际共识。
Greenblatt went out of his way to attack not some extreme or obscure measure
but UN Security Council Resolution 242, the foundation of half a century of
Arab-Israeli negotiations and of every agreement Israel has achieved within
them, including the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan. He railed against
its ambiguous wording, which has shielded Israel for decades against Arab
demands for a full withdrawal from occupied territory, as “tired rhetoric
designed to prevent progress and bypass direct negotiations” and claimed
that it had hurt rather than helped the chances for real peace in the region.
格林布拉特特意攻击的不是一些极端或模糊的措施，而是联合国安理会第242号决议，这
是半个世纪以来阿以谈判的基础，也是以色列在谈判中达成的每一项协议的基础，包括与
埃及和约旦的和平条约。他谴责其含糊不清的措辞，虽然这种措辞几十年来一直保护以色
列不受阿拉伯要求其从占领土全面撤军的影响，他称其为“旨在阻止进展和绕过直接谈判
的陈词滥调”，并声称这伤害了而不是帮助了该地区实现真正和平的机会。
The indignation was calculated. Guided by his boss Jared Kushner, the
president’s son-in-law and senior adviser on the Middle East, Greenblatt was
trying to change the conversation, to “start a new, realistic discussion”
of the subject. UN resolutions, international law, global consensus—all
that was irrelevant. From now on, Washington would no longer advocate a
two-state solution to the conflict, with independent Jewish and Palestinian
states living alongside each other in peace and security.
这种愤慨是计算好的。在他老板，总统的女婿和中东高级顾问，贾里德·库什纳（Jared
Kushner）的指导下，格林布拉特尝试改变对话，在该领域“开展新的、现实的讨论”。
联合国决议、国际法、国际共识——这一切都与此无关。从此以后，华盛顿将不再主张以
两国方案解决冲突，让独立的犹太和巴勒斯坦国家在和平与安全中共存。
Greenblatt's presentation was part of a broader campaign by the Trump
administration to break with the past and create a new Middle Eastern order.
To please a president who likes simple, cost-free answers, the
administration's strategists appear to have come up with a clever plan. The
United States can continue to withdraw from the region but face no adverse
consequences for doing so, because Israel and Saudi Arabia will pick up the
slack. Washington will subcontract the job of containing Iran, the principal
source of regional instability, to Israel and Saudi Arabia in the Levant and
the Persian Gulf, respectively. And the two countries' common interest in
countering Iran will improve their bilateral relationship, on which Israel
can build a tacit alliance with the Sunni Arab world. The proxies get broad
leeway to execute Washington's mandate at will, and their patron gets a new,
Trumpian order on the cheap. Unfortunately, this vision is a fantasy.
格林布拉特的演讲是川普政府打破过去、创建中东新秩序的更广泛运动的一部分。为了取
悦一位喜欢简单、免费答案的总统，政府的战略家们似乎想出了一个聪明的计画。美国可
以继续从该地区撤军，但不会因此而面临不利后果，因为以色列和沙特阿拉伯将会弥补这
一不足。华盛顿将把遏制伊朗这个地区不稳定的主要来源的任务分别分包给黎凡特和波斯
湾地区的以色列和沙特阿拉伯。两国在对抗伊朗问题上的共同利益将改善双边关系，在此
基础上，以色列可以与逊尼派阿拉伯世界建立默契的联盟。代理人获得了广泛的回旋余地
，可以随心所欲地执行华盛顿的命令，而他们的赞助人则以低廉的代价获得一个新的、川
普式的秩序。不幸的是，这种愿景只是一种幻想。
In the mid-1970s, even as the United States retrenched after its defeat in
Vietnam, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger successfully laid the
foundations for a new, U.S.-led Middle Eastern order. His main tool was
active diplomacy to reconcile Israel and its Arab neighbors. In many
respects, his efforts and those that followed were strikingly successful,
producing peace treaties between Israel and Egypt and between Israel and
Jordan, as well as an interim agreement with the Palestinians.
在20世纪70年代中期，即使美国在越南战败后紧缩开支，美国国务卿亨利·季辛吉（
Henry Kissinger）还是成功地为美国领导的中东新秩序奠定了基础。他的主要工具是积
极的外交手段来调和以色列及其阿拉伯邻国。在许多方面，他和继任者的努力取得了惊人
的成功，在以色列和埃及之间以及以色列和约旦之间达成了和平条约，并与巴勒斯坦人达
成了临时协议。
Progress stalled during the twenty-first century, however, as the second
intifada dashed hopes for Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation, the Iraq war
empowered a revolutionary Iran, and the Arab Spring destabilized the region
and triggered the rise of the Islamic State, or ISIS.
然而，21世纪的进展停滞不前，因为第二次起义粉碎了以色列-巴勒斯坦和解的希望，伊
拉克战争增强了伊朗的革命力量，阿拉伯之春破坏了该地区的稳定，并引发了伊斯兰国，
ISIS，的崛起。
Whoever won the presidency in 2016, therefore, would have faced a bleak
diplomatic landscape in the Middle East. Any recent administration would have
responded to this situation by going back to basics and painstakingly trying
to reconstruct the order Kissinger built, since it has, on balance, served
U.S. interests well. Instead, the Trump administration decided to blow up
what was left.
因此，无论是谁在2016年赢得总统大选，都会面临中东惨淡的外交前景。任何最近的政府
都会对这种情况作出回应，回到基础上，努力重建季辛吉建立的秩序，因为总的来说，它
很好地服务于美国的利益。相反的是，川普政府决定炸掉剩下的东西。
This is not reckless mayhem or mere domestic politics, goes the official
line, but creative destruction

天真的美国人应排除deep state那一群。

就像中国搞脱贫？ 自欺欺人不叫做治国好吗！