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kwei (光影)
2019-07-10 07:12:16Iran Is Rushing to Build a Nuclear Weapon — and Trump Can’t Stop It
伊朗赶着造核武，而川普阻止不了
The White House strategy of “maximum pressure” is backfiring in the most
dangerous way possible.
白宫的“极限施压”策略将导致最危险的反效果。
原文 (New York Times) : https://tinyurl.com/yxl2xxr7
译文 (国关国政外交学人): https://m.sohu.com/a/325555079_618422
John J. Mearsheimer
芝加哥大学政治学教授
President Trump says he wants to make sure Iran never acquires nuclear
weapons. His policy, however, is having the opposite effect: It is giving
Tehran a powerful incentive to go nuclear, while at the same time making it
increasingly difficult for the United States to prevent that. On Monday the
official Iranian news agency announced that the country had breached the
limits for enriched uranium imposed on it by the 2015 international
agreements.
美国总统川普曾一度表示，希望确保伊朗永不拥核。然而，其对伊政策却产生了截然相反
的效果：步步紧逼，使得德黑兰方面再度激活了发展核武器的雄心，同时，也使得美国越
来越难以掌控伊核局面的发展。当地时间7月1日，伊朗方面宣布，自身的低浓缩铀库存已
经超过了2015年达成的《限制伊朗发展核武器国际协议》所规定的上限。
Indeed, American policy toward Iran over the past year makes it clear that
Iranian leaders were foolish not to develop a nuclear deterrent in the early
2000s.
事实上，美国过去一年的对伊政策表明，伊朗领导人在本世纪初没有发展核威慑力量是十
分愚蠢的行为。
Although there has not yet been a significant military clash, the United
States has effectively declared war on Iran. Its wide-ranging sanctions
campaign is strangling Iran’s economy, in the hope of gaining sufficient
leverage to force Tehran to permanently dismantle its capacity to reprocess
plutonium and enrich uranium, the main pathways to the bomb.
双方虽然还没有发生重大的军事冲突，但实际上，美国已经向伊朗宣战。其广泛的制裁行
动一定程度上扼杀和阻碍了伊朗经济的发展，美国希望通过对伊制裁获取足够的地区影响
力，并迫使德黑兰方面永久丧失其钚和浓缩铀的生产和复工能力，众所周知，钚和浓缩铀
是制造核弹的必不可少的材料。
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also declared that Iran must fundamentally
alter its foreign policy in ways that suit the interests of America and its
Middle East allies. By imposing what it calls “maximum pressure,” the Trump
administration is threatening Iran’s survival as a sovereign state.
美国国务卿迈克·彭佩奥（Mike Pompeo）也宣称，伊朗必须从根本上改变其外交政策，
使之符合美国及其中东盟友的利益。 实际上,通过所谓的"极限施压"，川普政府正在威胁
伊朗作为一个主权国家的生存需求。
There is no evidence that Iran is likely to capitulate to American demands.
If anything, the historical record demonstrates that great powers can inflict
enormous punishment on their adversaries — with blockades, sanctions, sieges
and bombing campaigns — and yet the pain rarely causes target states to
surrender.
没有任何的直接证据表明，伊朗方面可能会屈服于来自美国的要求。历史的经验告诉我们
，大国可以通过封锁、制裁、围攻和轰炸等行动对对手实施巨大的惩罚，但这种“痛苦疗
法”很少会迫使目标国家行为体完全屈服。
American sanctions killed well over 100,000 Iraqi civilians in the 1990s, but
Saddam Hussein remained defiant. Nationalism is a powerful force that
invariably causes the people being pummeled to hang together, instead of
rising up to demand that their leaders surrender to the enemy.
在上世纪90年代，美国的行动曾使得超过10万名的伊拉克平民丧命，但萨达姆 · 侯赛因
仍然保持了挑衅的姿态。民族主义是一股强大的力量，它总是会导致被打击的人民万众一
心，同仇敌忾，而不是举手投降。
States are also reluctant to capitulate to coercive pressure because it may
tempt stronger powers to escalate their demands. If “maximum pressure”
works once, Mr. Trump and other American hawks might conclude it would work
again. Tehran has no interest in showing that it can be browbeaten.
各国家行为体往往也不愿意屈服于胁迫式压力，因为这可能会诱使更多和更强大的大国行
为体将无理的要求升级或是扩容，从而不断降低自身的对外下限。如果“极限施压”收到
了预期的效果，川普和其他美国鹰派人士可能会得出结论，它将会再度发挥作用。所以，
德黑兰方面一再宣称，无意也绝不会理睬美式恫吓。
In fact, Iran has already shown that it will not sit by while its people die
and its society is wrecked. The Iranians are likely to launch more covert
attacks against tankers and oil facilities in the Persian Gulf and employ
proxies to attack American troops and installations. We can also expect them
to launch sophisticated cyberattacks against the United States and its allies.
事实上，伊朗方面已经表明，自己不会坐以待毙，袖手旁观，眼睁睁地看着自己的人民和
社会遭到死亡威胁和秩序破坏。其可能会对波斯湾的油轮和石油设施发动更多的秘密攻击
，雇佣代理人攻击美国军队及其设施。同时还可以预判，他们对美国及其盟友发动复杂的
网络攻击亦是势在必行。
President Trump, in response, is likely to retaliate and further escalate the
pressure on Iran. The aim will be to “re-establish deterrence” with Iran
and force it to capitulate. But these measures will have the opposite result,
as the two sides are now locked in a classic escalatory spiral. Iran will
double down, which almost certainly means it will move to build its own
nuclear arsenal.
作为回应，川普总统可能会采取一系列报复手段并进一步加大对伊制裁。这样做的目的是
"重建对伊朗的威慑力"，迫使其屈服。但这些措施将会产生相反的结果，因为现在的形势
是，双方都陷入到了一个典型的冲突升级螺旋中。几乎可以肯定的是，伊朗方面将提高拥
核行动的倍速，直到最终建立自己的核武库。
The Iranians had good reason to acquire nuclear weapons long before the
present crisis, and there is substantial evidence they were doing just that
in the early 2000s. The case for going nuclear is much more compelling today.
After all, Iran now faces an existential threat from the United States, and a
nuclear arsenal will go a long way toward eliminating it.
其实早在此次危机之前，伊朗人就有很好的理由拥核了，而且有大量的证据显示，他们自
21世纪初就着手这样做了。如今，发展核能核武的理由更加令自众信服。毕竟，伊朗现在
面临着来自美国的生存威胁，核武库的建立将有助于极大的消除这一威胁。
Nuclear weapons are considered the ultimate deterrent for good reason:
Adversaries are unlikely to threaten the existence of a nuclear-armed state,
especially one with a deterrent that can survive a first-strike attack,
because that is the one circumstance in which a state is likely to use its
nuclear weapons. It is hard to imagine, for example, Israel or the United
States attacking Iran — even with conventional weapons — if Iran had the
bomb, simply because there is some chance that escalation might lead to
nuclear use. Moreover, if its survival was at stake, Iran could credibly
threaten to use a few nuclear weapons to completely shut down the flow of oil
in the Persian Gulf.
有充分的理由表明，核武器是终极的威慑力量：敌对方不太可能对一个拥核的国家行为体
存在威胁，特别是一个能够经受住第一次核打击并开展第二次核打击的国家行为体，因为
这将是国家间可能大规模使用核武的唯一情况。例如，很难想像，如果伊朗方面拥有了核
弹，美国或以色列会对伊朗发动军事攻击——即使仅仅是使用常规武器——也可能会迫使
对方因为局势升级而选择使用核武器。此外，如果伊朗的生存受到威胁，其完全可以有令
人信服的理由,威胁使用核武器来切断波斯湾的石油输送。
It might seem hard to imagine Iran using nuclear weapons first in a crisis,
but history tells us that desperate states are sometimes willing to pursue
exceedingly risky strategies — the Japanese decision to attack a far more
powerful United States in 1941 and the Egyptian decision to strike mighty
Israel in 1973 are the classic cases. The Trump administration would surely
be aware of the dangers of provoking a nuclear-armed Iran. In short, nuclear
weapons would profoundly alter Iran’s strategic situation for the better.
也许很难想像，伊朗会在危机局面中率先使用核武器打击对方，但历史的经验告诉我们，
绝望的国家行为体有时会采取极端危险的战略赌搏