The looming 100-year US-China fight
中美关系不应成为零和游戏
Financial Times (FT中文网 中英对照)
https://tinyurl.com/y2k87a3n
Martin Wolf
英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员
The disappearance of the Soviet Union left a big hole. The “war on terror”
was an inadequate replacement. But China ticks all boxes. For the US, it can
be the ideological, military and economic enemy many need. Here at last is a
worthwhile opponent. That was the main conclusion I drew from this year’s
Bilderberg meetings. Across-the-board rivalry with China is becoming an
organising principle of US economic, foreign and security policies.
苏联的消失留下了一个巨大的空子。“反恐战争”是一个不足以填补的接替者。但中国符
合所有条件。对美国而言，中国能够成为很多美国人需要的那个意识形态、军事和经济对
手。终于出现了一个值得一较高下的对手。这是我从今年的彼尔德伯格会议(Bilderberg
Meeting)得出的主要结论。与中国进行全面对抗正在成为美国经济、外交和安全政策的组
织性原则。
Whether it is Donald Trump’s organising principle is less important. The US
president has the gut instincts of a nationalist and protectionist. Others
provide both framework and details. The aim is US domination. The means is
control over China, or separation from China. Anybody who believes a
rules-based multilateral order, our globalised economy, or even harmonious
international relations, are likely to survive this conflict is deluded.
这是不是唐纳德‧川普(Donald Trump)的组织性原则，没那么重要。这位美国总统天生是
一名民族主义者和保护主义者。其他人提供框架和实施细节。目标是维持美国的主导地位
。手段是控制中国，或者与中国脱钩。任何相信基于规则的多边秩序、经济全球化、甚至
和谐的国际关系能够在这场冲突中幸存的人，都是被迷惑了。
The astonishing white paper on the trade conflict, published on Sunday by
China, is proof. The — to me, depressing — fact is that on many points
Chinese positions are right. The US focus on bilateral imbalances is
economically illiterate. The view that theft of intellectual property has
caused huge damage to the US is questionable. The proposition that China has
grossly violated its commitments under its 2001 accession agreement to the
World Trade Organization is hugely exaggerated.
中国上周日针对此次经贸摩擦发布的令人震惊的白皮书就是证明。让我感到郁闷的事实是
，在许多要点上，中国的立场都是正确的。美方对双边贸易失衡的专注体现了其经济学上
的无知。认为知识产权盗窃对美国造成了巨大损害的看法值得怀疑。关于中国严重违反
2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)时所作承诺的说法，是严重夸大。
Accusing China of cheating is hypocritical when almost all trade policy
actions taken by the Trump administration are in breach of WTO rules, a fact
implicitly conceded by its determination to destroy the dispute settlement
system. The US negotiating position vis-à-vis China is that “might makes
right”. This is particularly true of insisting that the Chinese accept the
US role as judge, jury and executioner of the agreement.
当川普政府采取的几乎所有贸易政策行动都在违反WTO规则时，指责中国“作弊”是虚伪
的。川普政府决意要摧毁这一争端解决机制，相当于承认了自己违反WTO规则的事实。美
国对华的谈判立场是“强权即公理”。在坚持要求中国接受美国同时充当协议的法官、陪
审团和执行人角色方面尤为如此。
A dispute over the terms of market opening or protection of intellectual
property might be settled with careful negotiation. Such a settlement might
even help China, since it would lighten the heavy hand of the state and
promote market-oriented reform. But the issues are now too vexed for such a
resolution. This is partly because of the bitter breakdown in negotiation. It
is still more because the US debate is increasingly over whether integration
with China’s state-led economy is desirable. The fear over Huawei focuses on
national security and technological autonomy. Liberal commerce is
increasingly seen as “trading with the enemy”.
围绕开放市场的条件或知识产权保护的纠纷，可以通过认真协商解决。这样的解决方案甚
至可以帮助中国，因为它将减轻国家干预的程度，推动市场化改革。但这些问题如今存在
太多争议，以至于无法达成这样一个解决方案。这部分是因为谈判在双方相互指责中破裂
。更重要的原因是，美国本身日益就是否值得与中国的政府主导的经济进行融合展开争论
。对华为(Huawei)的担忧集中在国家安全和科技自主方面。自由商贸越来越被视为“与敌
人做交易”。
A framing of relations with China as one of zero-sum conflict is emerging.
Recent remarks by Kiron Skinner, the US state department’s policy planning
director (a job once held by cold war strategist George Kennan) are
revealing. Rivalry with Beijing, she suggested at a forum organised by New
America, is “a fight with a really different civilisation and a different
ideology, and the United States hasn’t had that before”. She added that
this would be “the first time that we will have a great power competitor
that is not Caucasian”. The war with Japan is forgotten. But the big point
is her framing of this as a civilisational and racial war and so as an
insoluble conflict. This cannot be accidental. She is also still in her job.
一种将对华关系定义为零和冲突的框架正在形成。美国国务院政策规划司司长凯润‧斯金
纳(Kiron Skinner)近来发表的一些言论令人深思（冷战时期的战略家乔治‧凯南
(George Kennan)曾担任这一职务）。斯金纳表示，与北京的较量是“与一种完全不同的
文明和不同意识形态的斗争，美国以前从未经历过”。她还说，这将是“我们第一次面临
一个非白人的强大竞争对手”。她忘记了美国与日本的战争。但关键问题在于她将之定义
为一场文明与种族之战，因而是一场无法化解的冲突。这不可能是偶然事件。她也没有被
停职。
Others present the conflict as one over ideology and power. Those emphasising
the former point to President Xi Jinping’s Marxist rhetoric and the
reinforced role of the Communist party. Those emphasising the latter point to
China’s rising economic might. Both perspectives suggest perpetual conflict.
另一些人则认为这是一场围绕意识形态和权力的冲突。强调前者的人士指向中国国家主席
习近平的马克思主义言论、以及共产党进一步被强化的角色。强调后者的人士指向中国不
断崛起的经济实力。这两种看法都指向无休止的冲突。
This is the most important geopolitical development of our era. Not least, it
will increasingly force everybody else to take sides or fight hard for
neutrality. But it is not only important. It is dangerous. It risks turning a
manageable, albeit vexed, relationship into all-embracing conflict, for no
good reason. China’s ideology is not a threat to liberal democracy in the
way the Soviet Union’s was. Rightwing demagogues are far more dangerous. An
effort to halt China’s economic and technological rise is almost certain to
fail. Worse, it will foment deep hostility in the Chinese people. In the long
run, the demands of an increasingly prosperous and well-educated people for
control over their lives might still win out. But that is far less likely if
China’s natural rise is threatened. Moreover, the rise of China is not an
important cause of western malaise. That reflects far more the indifference
and incompetence of domestic elites. What is seen as theft of intellectual
property reflects, in large part, the inevitable attempt of a rising economy
to master the technologies of the day. Above all, an attempt to preserve the
domination of 4 per cent of humanity over the rest is illegitimate.
这是我们这个时代最重要的地缘政治发展。尤其是，它将日益迫使其他所有国家选边站，
或努力争取中立。但它不仅仅事关重大，而且还危险。它有可能毫无缘由地将一种可控（
尽管棘手）的关系转变为一场全面的冲突。中国的意识形态并不像苏联那样对自由民主构
成威胁。蛊惑民心的右翼政客危险得多。阻止中国经济和科技崛起的努力几乎一定会失败
。更糟的是，这样做将激起中国人民深深的敌意。因为长远来看，一个日益富裕且受过良
好教育的民族对主导自身命运的需求，仍将压倒一切。但如果中国自然的崛起受到威胁，
实现这一点的可能性就会大大降低。此外，西方的弊病也并非由中国崛起引发。西方的弊
病更多地是反映了西方国内精英的冷漠和无能。被视为盗窃知识产权的做法，在很大程度
上反映了一个崛起中的经济体为掌握最新科技而进行的必然尝试。最重要的是，企图维持
仅占全球人口4%的人对其他所有人的支配，是不合理的。
This certainly does not mean accepting everything China does or says. On the
contrary, the best way for the west to deal with China is to insist on the
abiding values of freedom, democracy, rules-based multilateralism and global
co-operation. These ideas made many around the globe supporters of the US in
the past. They still captivate many Chinese people today. It is quite
possible to uphold these ideas, indeed insist upon them far more strongly,
while co-operating with a rising China where that is essential, as over
protecting the natural environment, commerce and peace.
当然，这并不意味着西方要接受中国的所有言行。相反，西方与中国打交道的最佳方式是
坚持自由、民主、基于规则的多边主义以及全球合作等永恒价值观。这些理念过去曾在世
界各地为美国赢得了众多支持者。时至今日，它们仍吸引著许多中国人。在合作至关重要
的领域，如保护自然环境、商业与和平，在与崛起的中国合作时，高举这些理念、甚至更
强有力地坚守这些理念是完全可能的。
A blend of competition with co-operation is the right way forward. Such an
approach to managing China’s rise must include co-operating closely with
like-minded allies and treating China with respect. The tragedy in what is
now happening is that the administration is simultaneously launching a
conflict between the two powers, attacking its allies and destroying the
institutions of the postwar US-led order. Today’s attack on China is the
wrong war, fought in the wrong way, on the wrong terrain. Alas, this is where
we now are.
正确的道路是将竞争与合作结合起来。这种应对中国崛起的方式，必须包括与志同道合的
盟友密切合作，以及用尊重的态度对待中国。当前乱局的悲剧之处在于川普政府同时三面
出击：在美中两个大国之间挑起冲突，攻击美国盟友，摧毁支撑美国领导的战后秩序的机
构。今天对中国的攻击是在错误的领域、以错误的方式发起的一场错误的战争。可悲，这
就是我们当前的处境。