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https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20190513/us-china-trade-war/zh-hant/dual/
U.S.-China Trade Standoff May Be Initial Skirmish in Broader Economic War
WASHINGTON — A yearlong trade war between the United States and China is
proving to be an initial skirmish in an economic conflict that may persist
for decades, as both countries battle for global dominance, stature and
wealth.
Progress toward a trade agreement nearly collapsed this past week, with both
sides hardening their bargaining positions. And even if a trade deal is
reached, it may do little to resolve tensions between the world’s two
largest economies.
作为两大国之间的经济角力，歹戏拖棚的贸易战最近又恶化了 会继续拖台钱
The United States is increasingly wary of China’s emerging role in the
global economy and the tactics it uses to get ahead, including
state-sponsored hacking, acquisitions of high-tech companies in the United
States and Europe, subsidies to crucial industries and discrimination against
foreign companies.
The Trump administration has begun trying to limit China’s economic
influence in the United States and abroad, warning about China’s ambitions
in increasingly stark terms. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, compared
China’s ambitions to Russia and Iran in a speech in London last Wednesday,
saying Beijing poses “a new kind of challenge; an authoritarian regime that’
s integrated economically into the West in ways that the Soviet Union never
was.”
米国开始注意到并阻止中国在经济方面的崛起，米国国务钦说 这是连苏联都没有过的
The United States has been erecting barriers to limit Chinese investment in
American companies, re-examining the kinds of technology that can be exported
to China and restricting China’s role in building America’s next-generation
telecommunications networks, while also discouraging other countries from
using Chinese equipment.
美国对中国科技投资开始限制 禁止世界各国用中国的设备
The F.B.I. has increased its scrutiny of Chinese researchers in the United
Statesver fearshey may be acquiring intellectual secrets. Justice
Department initiatives targeting commercial espionage of American
technology, and earlier this year the United Statesnveiled a sweeping
indictmentf the Chinese telecom giant Huawei and its chief financial
officer, Meng Wanzhou, over accusations of stealing trade secrets and evading
American sanctions on Iran.
ＦＢＩ开始监控在美中国人 怕他们窃取技术 美国之前也拿华为开刀 并逮捕孟晚舟
China, whose ambition is to dominate industries of the future, is pushing
back. A column on Saturday in the Communist Party’s People’s Daily
newspaper stated, “The United States is again waving the club of tariffs
after misjudging China’s strength, capacity and will, further escalating
trade friction between our two countries.”
The piece was written under the pen name Zhong Sheng — the “voice of China
” — a name used when the paper publishes comments on foreign affairs that
are authoritative.
中国的目标是要称霸未来科技 人民日报说 美国低估中国
Restraining China’s ambitions and methods is a tricky task — and there is
concern that the Trump administration’s effort is creating a new red scare,
fueling discrimination against China and its citizens that could ultimately
hurt the United States. As many as 30 Chinese professors have had their visas
to the United States canceled in the past year, or been put on administrative
review,ccording to Chinese academics and their American counterparts.
“We’ve got decades of painful negotiating with China ahead,” said David
Lampton, a China scholar at Stanford University. Mr. Lampton said a trade
deal, if reached, would do little to resolve the bigger conflict. “It’s
just a skirmish in an ongoing battle.”
我川政府对中国人的限制可能到头来会伤害美国，去年就有好几位中国学者限制入境美国
。一位史丹佛学者说 贸易战只是两大国正式开战前的小角力。
Chinese negotiators returned to Beijing over the weekend without a trade
agreement and with even larger economic barriers between the two countries.
The Trump administration raised tariffs on $200 billion in exports on Friday
and said it wouldove aheadith the legal process of taxing another
roughly $300 billion of products at the same 25 percent rate.
中国贸易谈判专家并没有带回来好消息，反而使关税力度加大至25趴
The two countries could yet come to an agreement that opens opportunities for
businesses and rolls back the levies they have placed on each other. Both
American and Chinese officials said on Friday that they would continue to
talk and could meet in Beijing next month. Liu He, China’s vice premier,
called the failure to reach a deal “just a small setback in the talks
between two countries,” while Mr. Trump, in a tweet, described the talks as
“candid and constructive.”
虽然双方还没达成共识，但未来会继续谈。刘鹤跟我川都说这次谈判有进步
While a trade deal could calm some tensions and establish more good will
between the two nations, it is unlikely to achieve many of the ambitious
goals that the administration has set for itself. Mr. Trump’s advisers, in
particular the United States trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, have
been focused on what the administration calls China’s practices of “
economic aggression.”
But the administration has struggled to address the immensity of the problems
in the text of a trade deal. People close to the talks say that the
negotiators appear powerless to force any changes that aren’t in China’s
interest.
Mr. Liu, who is leading China’s team in the trade negotiations, hinted at
that uphill battle in a video statement released by the official Xinhua news
agency.
“Now both sides have reached consensus in many respects, but frankly there
are also areas of disagreement,” he said. “We believe that these are major
matters of principle, and any country has its own important principles — we
can’t make concessions on matters of principle.”
双方谈判面临的困难是 对于中国没利益的项目 中国不太让步 刘鹤说 在大部分地方双方
都有共识，但有些地方中国是有原则的 越过原则 免谈
Despite punishing tariffs already on nearly half of Chinese exports to the
United States, Beijing is still resisting many of the most significant
changes that the administration seeks. It has been reluctant to roll back
subsidies for advanced manufacturing industries or to make public commitments
to stop cybertheft.
即使加大关税已经对大部分中国输美产品课税了，但中国政府依旧不愿意放弃对高科技产
业的补贴以及公开承诺对网络盗窃的停止
Instead, a trade deal between the two countries seems more likely to bring
change around the margins — tens of billions of dollars of soybean
purchases, some tariffs lifted and changes to the text of Chinese laws or
regulations that the country might ultimately disregard, particularly once
another administration occupies the White House.
“This is a decades-long endeavor,” said Robert Daly, the director of the
Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. “This
can’t be waved away over cake at Mar-a-Lago.”
相反的，许多事是处在变更的边缘，一但美国换党执政后中国可能就不鸟了，例如：是否
要购买大数量的黄豆
The notion that the United States has one last shot to change China’s
behavior is held by an array of people on both sides of the political
spectrum. But it is an aggressive notion of American power to upend a rival
system that has delivered prosperity for its people and put China on course
to be the world’s largest economy.
Many in China see the United States as a declining power bent on enforcing
its will on a world that no longer cowers before its hegemonic might. The
troubles in American democracy and the long economic slump after 2008
persuaded many in China that its instincts to chart its own course were
correct. In the eyes of many Chinese, their country is simply reclaiming its
historic status as a dominant regional power in Asia.
许多中国人相信美国在08海啸之后就一厥不振，正走向衰落。相反的中国正在崛起，未来
将会取代中国取回曾经世界霸主的地位
It has also projected power across Asia, Africa and elsewhere while the
United States has, on many fronts, retreated from its post-World War II
commitment to the global order. But it has done so with little application of
military force, in sharp contrast to what many in China see as American
militarism.
Many in China have sought to avoid a trade conflict, which could have a
larger impact on their economy than the United States’. But they have long
thought the United States would have a difficult time accepting a true peer
in economic, technology and military power, so consider the management of
conflict with the United States to be an inevitable result of their own rise.
就在美国从中东、非洲撤回从二战之后辛苦建立的势力，中国也正在这些地方建立自己的
势力取代美国。许多中国人想避免贸易战，但认为在中国崛起的过程中，与美国的摩擦不
可避免
While the Trump administration accused China of breaking a trade deal, China’
s resistance to the emerging terms stemmed from its belief that the United
States was asking too much and offering too little in return. Many of the
changes the United States seeks would limit what Chinese officials regard as
a tried-and-true approach of using tens of billions of dollars from
state-owned banks and government investment funds to turn previously small
industries like car production or solar panel manufacturing into the largest
industries of their kind in the world.
当川普政府控诉中方没有谈判诚意时，中国说是美国要求太多但给太少。其中一项美国要
求改变的项目是 要中国别再用补贴的方式让小产业变世界级巨头（太阳能面板之类的）
And the Chinese view some of the Trump administration’s demands as
infringing on their sovereignty and giving America too much power over their
economy — including requiring the country to codify changes through
legislation in the National People’s Congress. To the increasingly
nationalistic public in China, the American requests are reminiscent of9th
century historyf unequal treaties forced on the country by foreign powers.
中方观点任为美方管太多，连怎么立法都要管，这跟19世纪签署的不平等条约很像
Mr. Trump on Saturday suggested China was simply delaying a deal in the hopes
that a Democrat would win election in 2020 and continued his pugilistic
approach, saying “the deal will become far worse for them if it has to be
negotiated in my second term. Would be wise for them to act now, but love
collecting BIG TARIFFS!”
In the United States, China’s unwillingness to bow to America’s demands is
uniting lawmakers like the Democratic Senate leader, Chuck Schumer of New
York, and Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida.
That is a significant shift from the prevailing view in the United States
since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 that close economic engagement with
China would produce an increasingly democratic country that would be closely
tied to an international economic order founded mainly on Western liberal
ideals.
That has not happened.
川普在周六时说中国只想拖，以为换党后就没事了。门都没有！我第二任后会让他们更难
看，所以最好现在就跪下去吹。中国不愿意让步也让美国国会更加团结。改变从1970以来
认为更亲中可以让中国更民主、更有钱、更能掌贴近西方的经济体系。ＮＯ从没发生过。
China has indeed grown in prosperity, leaping into the ranks of what the
World Bank defines as upper-middle income countries. Its economy is now
bigger than any other country except the United States. Its manufacturing
sector is now bigger than those ofhe United States, Germany and South
Korea combined.
中国的确发大财了，变成除美国外的首富。其制造业也比美德这些垃圾加起来还强
But in the last five years, China has veered toward increasingly repressive
authoritarianism at home and a rapid military buildup. The State Department
estimates that Beijing has put 800,000 to two million Muslims in hastily
built internment camps ringed with barbed wire in northwestern China. The
Chinese government has built an archipelago of air bases on artificial
islands in the South China Sea in between Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and
the Philippines. And China nowas the world’s largest navynd has
conducted military exercises as far away as East Africa and the Baltic Sea.
在过去五年，中国住海边开始越管越宽。新疆再教育。南海武力过张。因为有最大的海军
群就在其他地方对各国叫嚣。
On the economic front, the competition is even fiercer. Trump administration
officials warn that China is trying to dominate the global 5G infrastructure
that will be the basis for future mobile communications and is competing to
set other technological standards that will determine which global companies
win.
在经济，科技面。中国5G领先世界。川普对于这种会对未来通讯领导技术被中国掌握觉得
不行。
China is extending low-cost loans and building infrastructure around the
globe through its One Belt, One Road program, which critics warn is making
poorer countries beholden to China. It is out-investing the United States in
some high-tech industries, and is gaining dominance in certain segments, like
mobile payment, new energy vehicles and areas of artificial intelligence.
且中国用一代一路在各地大撒币。许多人担心这会让穷国更加被中国掌控。且中国在许多
领域的投资已经超越美国。例如行动支付
While American companies have long hankered for access to China’s growing
market, their position has begun to shift as they see China’s practices and
treatment of foreign companies. A survey released by the American Chamber of
Commerce in China in February showed that the majority of its members favored
retaining tariffs on Chinese goods while trade negotiations continued.
正当美国试图撬开中国的市场大门。美国人对中国的态度也变了。根据调查，许多美国人
觉得要继续打。
China’s own experts say that the Beijing leadership has been caught off
guard by the pace of change in American perceptions of Sino-American
relations.
“Even if there is some kind of agreement between Xi and Trump, in the long
run the strategic bilateral relationship is already in trouble,” said Zhang
Jian, a professor in the School of Government at Peking University. “There
is no coming back, even if there is a deal.”
但中国专家说，回不去了 即便包子跟我川签有协议，但中美关系。中必赢的局面回不去
了
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