楼主:
hugoyo (阿佑)
2020-11-04 17:39:39线性大师这次真的大获全胜了，那就来外插一下宾州胜负
假设 67个县 全部外插至 100% 推估投票数 (用XiNN的)
开出比例 已开出 外插 已开出 外插
Adams 68% Trump 29,944 44,035 Biden 6,611 9,722
Allegheny 70% Trump 237,435 339,193 Biden 283,368 404,811
Armstrong 81% Trump 24,233 29,917 Biden 4,275 5,278
Beaver 66% Trump 45,464 68,885 Biden 17,304 26,218
Bedford 99% Trump 22,529 22,757 Biden 4,266 4,309
Berks 93% Trump 105,149 113,063 Biden 88,474 95,133
Blair 84% Trump 40,391 48,085 Biden 12,696 15,114
Bradford 87% Trump 19,411 22,311 Biden 5,210 5,989
Bucks 55% Trump 124,338 226,069 Biden 93,922 170,767
Butler 69% Trump 61,215 88,717 Biden 15,765 22,848
Cambria 93% Trump 46,884 50,413 Biden 20,572 22,120
Cameron 99% Trump 1,738 1,756 Biden 621 627
Carbon 73% Trump 18,221 24,960 Biden 5,050 6,918
Centre 83% Trump 34,830 41,964 Biden 37,356 45,007
Chester 70% Trump 107,803 154,004 Biden 106,128 151,611
Clarion 77% Trump 12,826 16,657 Biden 2,657 3,451
Clearfield 95% Trump 28,662 30,171 Biden 9,300 9,789
Clinton 95% Trump 11,419 12,020 Biden 5,171 5,443
Columbia 99% Trump 19,607 19,805 Biden 10,051 10,153
Crawford 73% Trump 24,180 33,123 Biden 6,053 8,292
Cumberland 63% Trump 61,680 97,905 Biden 24,861 39,462
Dauphin 99% Trump 64,887 65,542 Biden 76,671 77,445
Delaware 74% Trump 100,703 136,085 Biden 150,731 203,691
Elk 95% Trump 11,931 12,559 Biden 4,440 4,674
Erie 70% Trump 56,471 80,673 Biden 41,888 59,840
Fayette 95% Trump 39,182 41,244 Biden 18,359 19,325
Forest 99% Trump 1,864 1,883 Biden 715 722
Franklin 73% Trump 48,912 67,003 Biden 9,483 12,990
Fulton 95% Trump 6,660 7,011 Biden 1,068 1,124
Greene 74% Trump 10,708 14,470 Biden 2,210 2,986
Huntingdon 95% Trump 16,937 17,828 Biden 5,389 5,673
Indiana 69% Trump 24,008 34,794 Biden 5,801 8,407
Jefferson 95% Trump 17,702 18,634 Biden 4,448 4,682
Juniata 82% Trump 8,357 10,191 Biden 1,123 1,370
Lackawanna 99% Trump 51,396 51,915 Biden 61,001 61,617
Lancaster 82% Trump 143,390 174,866 Biden 82,496 100,605
Lawrence 95% Trump 29,071 30,601 Biden 15,557 16,376
Lebanon 95% Trump 44,610 46,958 Biden 22,145 23,311
Lehigh 66% Trump 67,889 102,862 Biden 54,283 82,247
Luzerne 76% Trump 74,275 97,730 Biden 43,319 56,999
Lycoming 95% Trump 40,707 42,849 Biden 16,539 17,409
McKean 95% Trump 13,383 14,087 Biden 4,351 4,580
Mercer 69% Trump 30,471 44,161 Biden 10,713 15,526
Mifflin 95% Trump 16,206 17,059 Biden 4,317 4,544
Monroe 59% Trump 29,529 50,049 Biden 17,713 30,022
Montgomery 77% Trump 158,254 205,525 Biden 225,935 293,422
Montour 65% Trump 4,742 7,295 Biden 1,619 2,491
Northampton 88% Trump 76,176 86,564 Biden 69,177 78,610
Northumberland 95% Trump 27,888 29,356 Biden 12,261 12,906
Perry 95% Trump 17,879 18,820 Biden 5,704 6,004
Philadelphia 48% Trump 101,345 211,135 Biden 289,477 603,077
Pike 95% Trump 18,951 19,948 Biden 12,845 13,521
Potter 95% Trump 7,117 7,492 Biden 1,686 1,775
Schuylkill 90% Trump 45,078 50,087 Biden 17,106 19,007
Snyder 95% Trump 13,816 14,543 Biden 4,848 5,103
Somerset 95% Trump 31,105 32,742 Biden 8,543 8,993
Sullivan 95% Trump 2,573 2,708 Biden 890 937
Susquehanna 95% Trump 14,878 15,661 Biden 6,084 6,404
Tioga 79% Trump 13,387 16,946 Biden 2,616 3,311
Union 95% Trump 12,175 12,816 Biden 7,302 7,686
Venango 95% Trump 18,286 19,248 Biden 7,475 7,868
Warren 95% Trump 14,020 14,758 Biden 5,987 6,302
Washington 95% Trump 70,760 74,484 Biden 43,949 46,262
Wayne 99% Trump 18,383 18,569 Biden 9,056 9,147
Westmoreland 81% Trump 118,079 145,777 Biden 50,119 61,875
Wyoming 95% Trump 9,819 10,336 Biden 4,642 4,886
York 95% Trump 142,934 150,457 Biden 85,073 89,551
现状
Trump: 2,964,853 (+677,988)
Biden: 2,286,865
外插
Trump: 3,832,132 (+663,763)
Biden: 3,168,369
宾州州长还是赶快加印40万张票吧，30万全部给蓝的还是不够