借标题问一下，我先承认我不懂投票制度和这些数据
只是看书的注脚(就是我上一篇说记者提到的大数据的书)
(书名: Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet can tell
about who we really are)
有一篇关于四年前川普支持者的纽约时报分析文章：
Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat
(懒得缩网址，自己google就有)
这篇文章的一个段落和底下有一个长条图
Trump Strongest Among Voters at Periphery of Republican Coalition
里面提到
Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these —
registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners — with 43 percent
of their support, according to the Civis data. Similarly, many of Mr. Trump’
s best states are those with a long tradition of Democrats who vote
Republican in presidential elections, like West Virginia.
两个关于板上在讲的提早投票调查问题
1.注册民主党一定是投民主党吗？还是说只是名义上民主党党籍？
要不然上面这篇文章说的注册民主党但是偏共和党然后投川普是哪来的？
2.
所以板上说的数字，是讨论注册哪个党还是投谁？
是不是有可能发生很严重的误判？
==
这篇文章还说
Another turnout challenge for Mr. Trump is that he commands the support of
many people who are unlikely to vote. Civis found him winning 40 percent of
the vote among those it gave less than a 20 percent chance of participating
in the general election — let alone in the primary. He held 29 percent among
those who had greater than an 80 percent chance of voting in the November
election.
前一篇有推文同意说这次的投票率可能会高很多，当然目前主流媒体似乎是假定中立选民
不多或是都被川普吓跑了，但是如果实际上仍然和四年前一样是中立选民比较爱川普，那
民主党是不是该感到忧虑？