今天发现《华盛顿邮报》有这个美国选情专栏
我试着贴原文并且重点式翻译供大家能够更贴近即将到来的美国总统辩论及大选
Politics．Analysis
政治．分析
Ｔhe Ｆour Ｐolitical Ｓtates of Ａrizona
亚历桑纳州的四种政治生态
Story by David Weigel
Map by Lauren Tierney
Sept. 20, 2020
Seventh in a series on swing states
《摇摆州系列》Ⅶ
How did the home of Barry Goldwater become a swing state? If it flips from red
to blue this year, the question — not hard to answer — might be why it didn't
flip sooner. One in 4 voters are non-White, an electorate that’s heavily
Democratic here, and a slim majority of voters were college graduates,
according to the 2016 exit polls.
‘保守派先生’政治家贝利．高华德之故乡亚历桑纳州如何成为摇摆州？
如果它今年从红色摆荡为蓝色，这问题－其实不难回答－也许该说它为何没摆荡得更早
亚历桑纳州四分之一选民是非白人，有很多自带强烈民主党意识型态之选民重兵集结于此
另外还有一些主流选民拥有大学学历，上开资料系根据2016年出口民调
Every other state with that profile, every other state with rapid urban growth,
has been moving briskly toward Democrats since 2016. By nominating Arizona’s
senior senator for president in 2008, and by picking the first-ever Mormon
nominee in 2012, Republicans ran stronger here in other states with similar
Latino populations and similar urban-rural splits.
大意是说喔：亚历桑纳州出过两位总统级候选人
一位是海军英雄，2008年共和党候选人 John McCain 江马侃 江大大
另位是美国首位摩门教总统候选人
同样也是共和党的 Mitt Romney 密特朗 大大，于2012年代表参选总统
↑
很明显不是这样翻，后面加尼即可
很显然共和党在亚历桑纳州经营得相当不错，吃很开
相较于其它人口结构近似于亚历桑纳州
即拥有相近拉丁裔人口及城乡分布的州而言
“The Arizona electorate is primed for the Democratic Party,” said Rep. Ruben
Gallego, who has represented downtown Phoenix in Congress since 2015. “If the
Democratic Party is doing well in highly educated, urbanized, suburbanized
areas, we’re doing well in Arizona — it’s 80 percent urban and suburban, and
the same time, we have a rising young Latino community that is voting
Democratic. Just one of those would make the state competitive, but you add
them together and we’re seeing a surge.”
民主党亚历桑纳州众议员 Ruben Gallego
也就是和鲁邦三世没有任何关系的‘鲁本咖哩勾’他提早发布全垒打宣言这样说喔：
‘亚历桑纳州已经准备好成为我们蓝蓝驴的州了’
而敢发出如此狂妄声明的鲁本众议员算是‘超前部署’
早在2015年就代表那个研发出《霹雳游侠》李麦克所驾驶的霹雳车的‘凤凰城基金会’
所在的城市也就是‘凤凰城’参选并顺利当选众议员了，怪不得他如此胸有成竹自信满满
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIQATdjKwz4
‘如果我们民主党在全国文教区、都会区、郊区都经营得好
那么毋庸置疑在亚历桑纳州也会经营得好，因为亚州拥有高达80%的都会及近郊选民
（按：RedNeck农民少嚣张喔？XD）
同时还有正在成长茁壮的拉丁裔社羣，这些都会投给我们民主党
上开任何一个因素都可以让我们在亚历桑纳州变得相当有竞争力
更何况把这些因素摆在一起，我们在亚历桑纳州即将可以看得到我们近乎无敌’
How Arizona shifted from 2012 to 2016
亚历桑纳州 在 2012 至 2016 间 政治板块 如何移动？
Phoenix and Tucson swung hard to the left, but it wasn’t enough to overcome
the Republican advantage in the state.
‘凤凰城太阳队’所在城市还有‘图森市’在这四年间快速向左摆荡
但这仍尚不足以逆转共和党于此州之优势
Dem. won by
50k votes
GOP won
by 150k
TIE
50k
100k
Tucson
Phoenix
2016
margin
2012
Red East
Red West
Statewide 2016 margin
Democrats narrowly lost the state in 2016, and they won two statewide races in
2018 thanks to a further leftward shift in the once-solidly Republican suburbs
of Phoenix.
On paper, Republicans can win the presidency without Arizona, but they never
have before. The advent of air conditioning transformed Arizona from a
collection of small cities and sprawling Native American reservation to a
beacon for people — often retirees — fleeing the Midwest. One in 11 Arizonans
are military veterans, and for a long time, the suburbs blossoming across
Maricopa County gave the GOP an unbeatable advantage in presidential elections.
Always conservative, Arizona’s Republicans moved further to the right since
2008 — and it has cost them. The 2010 passage of S.B. 1070, one of the country
’s strictest anti-immigration laws, won votes at first but galvanized the left
and the Latino vote. The late senator John McCain faced conservative
challengers in his final two campaigns; former senator Jeff Flake retired
rather than face likely defeat over his criticism of President Trump.
But the conservatives were losing, too, with Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio
ousted by voters in 2016 and Republicans ceding a Senate seat and the
secretary of state’s office in 2018. The state’s GOP chair, Kelli Ward, made
her name as a fringe Senate candidate (“Chemtrail Kelli”). And the state’s
Republican legislative majority is seen as vulnerable, both because of the
parties’ shifts and because of voter unhappiness with how Gov. Doug Ducey (R)
responded to the coronavirus.
The president has a devoted base in Arizona and made one of his very first
campaign stops here, alongside Arpaio, when some media outlets did not take him
seriously. Immigration, which has often reshaped politics in the state, has
been subsumed by other issues this year, and one Democratic bet is that Trump,
who pardoned Arpaio in 2017, has taken the wrong side of the state’s culture
wars.
Democrats also look fondly at Arizona for a very 2020 reason: Like Florida, it
has a robust early-voting tradition and allows votes to be counted before
Election Day. Though it’s one of the last states to close polls Nov. 3,
Arizona, like Florida, could offer the first clues to how the election is going
, as election officials count early votes before Election Day begins. And it
could tell us whether vote patterns are looking more like 2016, when
Republicans held enough suburban voters to win, or 2018, when they didn’t.
To understand Arizona, we’ve split it into four political “states.” The
biggest by far is Phoenix, or Maricopa County, which casts so much of the state
’s vote that a win there usually ends the race. The Tucson area is and has
been a stronghold for Democrats, even when they lose statewide. The Red West is
the most Republican part of the state; the Red East has big pockets of
Democrats, but it has more of the conservative voters the president needs to
win.
This is the seventh in a series breaking down the key swing states of 2020,
showing how electoral trends played out over the past few years and where the
shift in votes really mattered.
Phoenix
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a higher share of people living in cities than average.
Has an average share of non-White residents.
Has more college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
The modern Republican Party’s strength in Arizona came from Maricopa County.
In the past 25 years, its population doubled, and from the start of the century
until 2016, no Republican nominee for president won it by fewer than 10 points
. In 1948, the last time a Democratic nominee carried the county, the city of
Scottsdale didn’t even exist. But even then, Maricopa dominated state politics
. It cast 45 percent of Arizona’s votes in 1948; by 2016, it was casting 53
percent.
Nine of Arizona’s biggest cities are here, from deep blue Phoenix and Tempe to
deep red Peoria and Surprise. Demographics explain much of the political
difference, with White voters making up about three-quarters of the electorate
in the reddest cities and less than half of it in Phoenix. By advancing in
these suburbs, Democrats have put the whole state in play; in 2018, Sen.
Kyrsten Sinema won practically everything here inside the 101 and 202 highway
loops. Even Mesa, founded by Mormons and still shaped by their politics, swung
to the left.
The result, in 2016, was a collapse in the Republican margin. Mitt Romney came
out of Maricopa with a 146,597-vote lead, while Trump won it by 45,467. Polling
has found Trump trailing Joe Biden in the county, and losing it by any margin
would make it hard for the ticket to win statewide.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
747,857
Hillary Clinton
702,390
Counties included: Maricopa
Tucson
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has an average share of people living in cities.
Has more non-White residents than average.
Has more college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Democrats dominate southeastern Arizona, and in 2016, they carried all but
three precincts along the U.S.-Mexico border. Their strength here comes from
three blue centers: the cities of Tucson and Nogales, and the Tohono O’odham
Nation, 4,500 square miles in the middle of Pima County. In 2020, growth and
Democratic turnout in Tucson was enough to flip the 2nd Congressional District,
which Sen. Martha McSally (R) won twice as a member of Congress — and which
former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, the wife of this year’s Democratic
Senate nominee, won before her.
Tucson, where the University of Arizona has helped grow a year-round liberal
political culture, has given Democrats bigger margins every four years. That’s
given the party more of a cushion as it competes in the rest of the state. In
2016, Donald Trump got 555 fewer votes in the region than George W. Bush did in
his reelection campaign; Hillary Clinton ran 36,314 votes ahead of John F.
Kerry.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
171,286
Hillary Clinton
236,418
Counties included: Pima, Santa Cruz
Red East
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
Has more non-White residents than average.
Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Before Tucson and Phoenix became party strongholds, Democrats’ strongest vote
in Arizona came in the Native American reservations here. The Apache and Navajo
nations cover nearly half of the region and contain more than 200,000
Arizonans. Democrats have also added votes in the city of Flagstaff, the
biggest population center that isn’t an exurb of Phoenix, where Mormon voters
have struggled with aspects of Trump’s personality and presidency.
Still, those exurbs give the region a red hue — Pinal County, which contains
those conservative towns down Interstate 10, is the most populous part of
Arizona that actually moved toward Trump in 2016. He won more votes in that
region than Democrats won in Flagstaff, growing the GOP margin in eastern
Arizona from 25,236 votes in 2012 to 32,251 votes in 2016. For every vote Trump
picked up here, Democrats picked up seven in Maricopa, and further movement in
that direction would let Trump win most of the region while clearly losing the
state.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
174,944
Hillary Clinton
142,722
Counties included: Apache, Cochise, Coconino, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, Navajo,
Pinal
Red West
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
Has fewer non-White residents than average.
Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Arizona’s “west coast” is now the most strongly Republican part of the state
, with a few small White-majority cities that have exploded in population.
Outside the southwestern corner of the state, where the city of Yuma and border
town of Somerton represent a sizable, majority-Latino Democratic vote,
Republicans carried all but three precincts here in 2016, and the retirees from
more liberal states who’ve moved here over the past few decades are just as
solid for him today.
The president makes an ideal cultural fit for the region, just as he is in
northeastern Pennsylvania or central Wisconsin — pro-gun rights, antiabortion
and anti-immigration. The question is how many more votes there are to win.
Trump improved on Romney by nearly 20,000 votes here, but Clinton ran 6,000
votes ahead of Barack Obama, running so strong around Yuma that she nearly
flipped the county.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
158,765
Hillary Clinton
79,196
Counties included: La Paz, Mohave, Yavapai, Yuma
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