[讨论] 如果新竹市议会选区为单一选区

楼主: Neptunium (第九十三号元素)   2020-06-27 20:37:16
这次来到新竹市
由于某些里人口分配的关系
所以有些假想选区人口可能会差距很大
除了1席平地原住民选区,新竹市目前有33席议员席位
结果如下:
https://i.imgur.com/goHXseM.png
标号版本:
https://i.imgur.com/fgoDcoF.png
各区的蓝绿基本盘如下:
选区 宋 韩 蔡 宋% 韩% 蔡% 总得票 相对基本盘
1 392 3291 3440 5.50% 46.20% 48.29% 7123 -8.84%
2 424 2989 3448 6.18% 43.57% 50.26% 6861 -6.88%
3 464 2469 3566 7.14% 37.99% 54.87% 6499 -2.26%
4 462 2864 4512 5.89% 36.54% 57.57% 7838 0.43%
5 443 2210 4049 6.61% 32.98% 60.41% 6702 3.28%
6 418 3062 3820 5.73% 41.95% 52.33% 7300 -4.80%
7 480 5173 2839 5.65% 60.92% 33.43% 8492 -23.70%
8 470 2877 4751 5.80% 35.53% 58.67% 8098 1.54%
9 355 2780 3879 5.06% 39.64% 55.30% 7014 -1.83%
10 426 3022 4651 5.26% 37.31% 57.43% 8099 0.30%
11 502 3701 4699 5.64% 41.57% 52.79% 8902 -4.34%
12 435 3493 4599 5.10% 40.96% 53.93% 8527 -3.20%
13 471 4409 3462 5.65% 52.85% 41.50% 8342 -15.63%
14 423 3043 5067 4.96% 35.66% 59.38% 8533 2.25%
15 501 3653 4495 5.79% 42.24% 51.97% 8649 -5.16%
16 403 3019 4600 5.02% 37.63% 57.34% 8022 0.21%
17 376 3375 4187 4.74% 42.52% 52.75% 7938 -4.38%
18 355 2733 5118 4.33% 33.30% 62.37% 8206 5.24%
19 448 3255 4997 5.15% 37.41% 57.44% 8700 0.31%
20 426 3194 4414 5.30% 39.76% 54.94% 8034 -2.19%
21 413 2885 5082 4.93% 34.43% 60.64% 8380 3.51%
22 371 2792 4283 4.98% 37.50% 57.52% 7446 0.39%
23 400 2610 5131 4.91% 32.06% 63.03% 8141 5.90%
24 400 2999 3951 5.44% 40.80% 53.76% 7350 -3.38%
25 387 2991 4131 5.15% 39.83% 55.01% 7509 -2.12%
26 413 3036 3712 5.77% 42.40% 51.84% 7161 -5.29%
27 427 3299 4392 5.26% 40.64% 54.10% 8118 -3.03%
28 481 3461 4948 5.41% 38.93% 55.66% 8890 -1.47%
29 383 2354 4359 5.40% 33.17% 61.43% 7096 4.30%
30 427 3364 4719 5.02% 39.53% 55.45% 8510 -1.68%
31 451 2904 4987 5.41% 34.81% 59.78% 8342 2.65%
32 485 2829 5308 5.63% 32.81% 61.56% 8622 4.43%
33 391 2589 4678 5.11% 33.81% 61.09% 7658 3.96%
总计:
铁蓝 ( ~-15%) 2
深蓝 (-15%~-10%) 0
中蓝 (-10%~- 5%) 4
浅蓝 (- 5%~- 2%) 9
中间 (- 2%~ 2%) 9
浅绿 ( 2%~ 5%) 7
中绿 ( 5%~ 10%) 2
深绿 ( 10%~ 15%) 0
铁绿 ( 15%~ ) 0
https://i.imgur.com/MPlYjwG.png
https://i.imgur.com/nNiolnf.png
如果中间绿全拿则绿色可勉强过半
作者: alexrow (蛋蛋的忧伤)   2020-06-27 20:38:00
新竹33个选区?应该是行政区吧喔 我以为是立委的 抱歉
作者: benqlove (benq)   2020-06-27 20:52:00
推个资料,感谢整理
作者: Yamapi5566 (文山下智久)   2020-06-27 20:54:00
原来香山南寮这么绿
作者: rayisgreat (竹枫岚雪)   2020-06-27 21:01:00
好奇问一下 以原po长期整理的资料来看2022新竹市长 2024新竹立委 时力拿下的机率高吗考虑长期年轻选民移入与首投族加入的话另外 7跟13是...? 也蓝得太夸张= =
作者: pups914702 (想不起帐号由来)   2020-06-27 21:18:00
用总统得票看地方议员不准吧

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