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In a blow to China, Taiwan’s president coasts to a second term
HER VICTORY was expected but not, perhaps, its margin. Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’
s president, won a second four-year term in a landslide on January 11th. She
drew over 8m votes, more than any candidate has received in any of the seven
direct elections held since 1996.
她获得预期的胜利，但没料是如此悬殊的差距。蔡英文，在1月11日以压倒性的胜
利，赢得她下一个四年的任期。她得到了超过800万的选票，这是自从台湾1996直
选的7届以来，最高的得票。
Ms Tsai, Taiwan’s first female president, scooped 57% of the votes cast,
against 39% for her main opponent, Han Kuo-yu of the pro-China Kuomintang
(KMT). A third candidate, James Soong, also seen as pro-China, took around
4%. In simultaneous elections for the island’s parliament, the Legislative
Yuan, always likely to be much tighter, her Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) won with a reduced majority. It will have 61 of the body’s 113 seats,
down from 68.
蔡英文做为台湾第一位女性总统，以57%的得票率胜过了她的主要对手，亲中的KMT
候选人韩导的39%。第三位候选人，同样也是亲中政党提名的宋神掌，则是得到了4%。
与此同时进行的立法院选举选情更为紧张，她所属的DPP拿下了113席中的61席成为
多数党，但是席次比上一次的68席更少。
Ms Tsai’s triumph will infuriate China, which claims Taiwan as its own
territory. Ever since she took office in 2016, it has been doing what it can
to put pressure on voters to reject the DPP, which has traditionally favoured
independence from China. To this end, China has staged military exercises,
including bomber-jet flights near Taiwan, and waged a diplomatic campaign to
isolate it internationally. Since 2016 it has poached seven of the developing
countries that give diplomatic recognition to Taiwan, reducing their total
number to 15.
蔡女士的胜选将会激怒中国，因为中国一再宣称台湾是中国的领土。从她2016年首次
当选以来，中国即对台湾的选民施加各种手段，举行军事演习、军机绕台以及收买台湾
邦交国等等，来让他们对传统上有台独倾向的DPP有反感。自2016年以来已经将台湾的
7个邦交国挖走，使台湾邦交国目前只剩下15个。
The campaign seemed at first to be working. Just over a year ago, Ms Tsai’s
popularity was dwindling. The DPP took a thrashing in municipal elections in
November 2018 and she was forced to step down as the party’s chairwoman. Two
factors help explain the turnaround in her political fortunes since then.
不过一年以前，蔡英文的支持度暴跌。DPP在2018年11月的地方首长大选中遭到重击，蔡
也被迫辞去党主席的位置，有两大因素可以解释他怎么扭转她的政治命运。
Perhaps most important was what has happened in Hong Kong. In January last
year China’s president, Xi Jinping, made a speech reiterating its
long-standing carrot-and-stick approach to Taiwan’s future: the promise of a
version of the “one country, two systems” formula it uses to rule Hong
Kong; and the threat of military invasion should the island take steps
towards formal independence.
最重要的因素或许是在香港发生的事情。在去年一月时习大大向台湾同胞重申了他那
恩威并济的一国两制方案，也就是目前在香港施行统治的那套。如果台湾真往正式独
立的方向走，中国将不惜以武力犯台。
The outbreak in June of months of sometimes violent unrest in Hong Kong’s
reignited fears in Taiwan about its possible future if it did not elect a
leader trusted to protect its sovereignty. Ms Tsai successfully capitalised
on this, and her approval ratings soared. Her opponent, Mr Han, campaigned on
a platform of enriching the island’s economy through closer ties with China.
This enabled her to portray him as untrustworthy and unable to protect the
island’s de facto independence, frequently pointing to a visit Mr Han made
to Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong in March. The DPP also criticised
Mr Han for describing Taiwan, in general terms, as part of China.
在六月爆发的香港反送中事件重新点燃了台湾人的恐惧，若台湾人无法选出可信赖
且能够保护主权的领导人，今日香港就可能成为明日台湾。蔡英文成功地卖了芒果
干，她的支持度也因此攀升。而她的对手韩导，则是主张经济上要更靠拢中国才能
让岛民发大财。这让蔡得以把韩导描述为一个不可信任，而且无法守护台湾实质独
立的人。韩导由于进过在香港的中联办，还有认为台湾属于一中的理念而饱受DPP的
抨击。
“The results of this election...have shown that when our sovereignty and
democracy are threatened, the Taiwanese people will shout our determination
even more loudly back,” Ms Tsai told a victory press conference on January
11th.
蔡英文在1月11胜选的记者会上说: 选举的结果证明了当我们的主权与民主受到威胁
的时候，台湾人会更大声地展现他们的决心。
The second factor was a transformation in the economic outlook. Since 2000
Taiwan’s voters have been asked to choose between closer economic ties with
China, advocated by the KMT, at the risk of losing the island’s hard-won
autonomy, or a more independence-leaning stance pushed by the DPP, carrying
the risk of economic marginalisation.
第二个因素是经济情势的改变。自2000年以来，台湾选民被要求支持下面两种形式，
认为经济上应与中国更紧密结合，但可能丧失得来不易的自主性的的KMT，或是因为独
立倾向，而导致经济被边缘化的DPP。
The trade war waged between China and America has changed everything. To
dodge American import tariffs, many Taiwan-owned businesses based in China
have diversified by investing more in South-East Asia—and in Taiwan itself,
where government statistics show that, encouraged by incentives, they have
pledged investment of close to $24bn over the next few years. The growth rate
forecast for this year, 2.72%, should outstrip that of the other former “
Asian Tigers”. For the first time, notes Lai I-chung of the Prospect
Foundation, a security-focused Taiwanese think-tank, Ms Tsai’s security and
economic policies were aligned. This helped the DPP win support from
businesses, normally a KMT bastion.
美中贸易战改变了一切，为了闪避美国的关税，许多在中国的台商纷纷转进到东南亚
或是台湾。依政府的统计资料显示，回流的台商将在未来几年投资240亿元，预估的经
济成长率为2.72%，比其他四小龙的成员都还要好。远景基金会的赖怡忠说: 蔡总统
的国安与经济政策紧密结合，这帮DPP争取到更多以往被视为KMT铁票的生意人的支持。
Nathan Batto of Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s leading research institute, notes
that Ms Tsai also won support by proving that she could deepen ties with
America, the ultimate guarantor of Taiwan’s security. In 2019, for the first
time since 1979, when America switched recognition from Taiwan to China,
America and Taiwan’s national security advisers met face-to-face, and
America sold Taiwan 66 F-16 fighter jets.
中研院的Nathan Batto说: 蔡英文向美方证明了她能深化台美关系，而得到了实质
爸爸美国的支持。自1979年台美断交以来，首次国家安全顾问面对面的谈话，美方
更卖给台湾66架F-16的战机。
As Ms Tsai had a good year internationally, Mr Batto points out that Mr Han
had a bad one at home. He shot to political stardom in 2018, when, after 16
years out of national politics, his folksy manner helped him pull off an
electoral upset to become mayor of the southern port city of Kaohsiung. But
last year he annoyed locals by taking a leave of absence after just six
months in office to campaign for the presidency. Formal proceedings to recall
him are already under way. In addition, the KMT’s chairman, Wu Den-yih,
provoked an angry backlash when he put Wu Sz-huai, an unpopular retired
general who supports unification with China, on a list of nominees for
legislative seats that are allocated by proportional representation, making
him a shoo-in.
今年是蔡总统的年(在国际关系上)，相对的，Batto指出韩导可能有个难过的年。
韩导在2018年是个政治巨星，在离开政界16年后，他随兴的个性帮他赢得港都高雄
的市长宝座。但韩导就职市长六个月后就落跑去选总统的行为激怒了高雄市民，一
场进行中的罢免正在等着他。另外，KMT的主席吴敦义，也因为将支持与中国统一的
退将吴斯怀放进不分区安全名单而犯了众怒。
Based on polling, Mr Batto estimates that in 2019, almost 40% of Taiwanese
people thought that at least part of their identity was Chinese. Mr Wu and
other KMT bosses are expected to offer their resignations this week to atone
for the party’s losses. But Mr Batto thinks the KMT, founded in China in
1919, is unlikely to disappear. And Taiwanese doing business in mainland
China will always need a party like the KMT to represent them, Mr Batto
argues.
根据调查，Batto估计2019年差不多有40%的台湾人认为他们是Chinese。吴主席跟
其他党务大头预期会辞职来为败选负责。但Batto认为这个从1919年就于中国创立
的党不会消失，对那些在中国工作的台商来说，他们仍需要一个像KMT这样的党来
代表它们。
It is not clear how Mr Xi will respond to Ms Tsai’s resounding win. Neither
Mr Lai nor Chao Chien-min, a former senior China-policy official in a KMT
administration, think it will resort to military action or other dramatic
moves. Instead, they say, there will probably be more of the same:
diplomatic-isolation campaigns and military exercises in the neighbourhood.
Ms Tsai can be expected to be at pains not to provoke China. But for many in
Beijing, her victory is provocation enough.
目前还不清楚习大大会怎么回应蔡英文的狂胜，赖怡忠或KMT的中国政策专家赵建民
都不认为中国会以军事行动或是过激手段来回应。相对地，可能就跟过去一样，在外
交孤立台湾、持续在周遭军事演习。蔡英文应该还是如预期般，要忍耐著以避免激怒
中国，但对北京来说，她的胜选就已经够让人森七七的了。