[讨论] 2016-2020基盘变化讨论

楼主: Neptunium (第九十三号元素)   2020-01-12 20:21:42
依2020最绿的县市到最蓝的县市排序
县市
2016蔡 2016基本盘 2020蔡 2020基本盘 基本盘变化
台南市 67.52% D+11.39% 67.38% D+10.25% -1.15%
嘉义县 65.37% D+ 9.25% 64.22% D+ 7.09% -2.16%
宜兰县 62.06% D+ 5.94% 63.28% D+ 6.15% 0.21%
高雄市 63.39% D+ 7.27% 62.23% D+ 5.10% -2.17%
屏东县 63.49% D+ 7.37% 62.16% D+ 5.03% -2.34%
云林县 63.41% D+ 7.29% 61.56% D+ 4.43% -2.86%
嘉义市 59.86% D+ 3.74% 61.37% D+ 4.24% 0.50%
彰化县 56.47% D+ 0.35% 57.17% D+ 0.04% -0.31%
台中市 55.01% K+ 1.11% 56.95% K+ 0.18% 0.94%
新北市 54.79% K+ 1.33% 56.52% K+ 0.61% 0.72%
新竹市 51.22% K+ 4.90% 55.26% K+ 1.87% 3.02%
桃园市 51.03% K+ 5.10% 54.78% K+ 2.35% 2.75%
澎湖县 50.81% K+ 5.31% 53.85% K+ 3.28% 2.03%
台北市 51.96% K+ 4.17% 53.65% K+ 3.48% 0.69%
南投县 52.23% K+ 3.89% 50.83% K+ 6.31% -2.41%
基隆市 48.22% K+ 7.91% 50.82% K+ 6.31% 1.60%
新竹县 42.52% K+13.60% 46.88% K+10.25% 3.35%
苗栗县 45.45% K+10.67% 45.02% K+12.11% -1.44%
台东县 38.41% K+17.71% 38.12% K+19.01% -1.30%
花莲县 36.94% K+19.18% 35.91% K+21.22% -2.04%
金门县 18.00% K+38.12% 21.77% K+35.37% 2.75%
连江县 16.54% K+39.58% 19.81% K+37.32% 2.26%
大体上
基本上呈现北部外岛绿化,南部蓝化的情形
其中绿化县市最明显的是新竹县,其次是新竹市与桃园市
竹市从浅蓝区变成摇摆区,桃园从中蓝区变成摇摆区
其中这些地方都是都市人口相当发展的地方
(澎湖部分可能是宋楚瑜效应)
蓝化县市最明显的是云林县,其次是南投县和屏东县
云林自2012的深绿区变成2016中绿区,到了2020又变成浅绿区
南投县从浅蓝区正是变成中蓝区,超越了台北桃园竹市
共同点就是这些地方都是乡村地带,且不少人口外流

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