!看媒体报导 美国的经济状况是近年来最好
尤其失业率比欧巴马时期低很多 如此来看 川普的连任之路应该很稳
参考美国网站的预测 目前的状况是这样
看起来是综合四个预测媒体(网站)的结果
不过现在距离美国大选还有11个多月 且民主党人选也还未定
所以变量仍多 仅供参考
A B C D
Alabama R+14 62.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Alaska R+9 51.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Arizona R+5 48.9% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup
Arkansas R+15 60.6% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
California D+12 61.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Colorado D+1 48.2% D Likely DSafe D Lean D Lean D
Connecticut D+6 54.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Delaware D+6 53.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
District of C D+41 90.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Florida R+2 49.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup
Georgia R+5 50.8% R Lean R Likely RLean R Lean R
Hawaii D+18 62.2% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Idaho R+19 59.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Illinois D+7 55.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Indiana R+9 56.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Iowa R+3 51.2% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Kansas R+13 56.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Kentucky R+15 62.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Louisiana R+11 58.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Maine D+3 47.8% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
ME-1 D+8 54.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D
ME-2 R+2 51.3% R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Maryland D+12 60.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Massachusetts D+12 60.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Michigan D+1 47.5% R Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup
Minnesota D+1 46.4% D Lean D Likely DLean D Lean D
Mississippi R+9 57.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Missouri R+9 56.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Montana R+11 56.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Nebraska R+14 58.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
NE-1 R+11 56.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R
NE-2 R+4 47.2% R Lean R Tossup Tossup
NE-3 R+27 73.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Nevada D+1 47.9% D Likely DLean D Lean D Tossup
New Hampshire EVEN 47.0% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup
New Jersey D+7 55.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
New Mexico D+3 48.4% D Safe D Safe D Likely DLikely D
New York D+11 59.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
North Carolina R+3 49.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup
North Dakota R+16 63.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Ohio R+3 51.7% R Lean R Likely RLean R Lean R
Oklahoma R+20 65.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Oregon D+5 50.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Pennsylvania EVEN 48.2% R Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Rhode Island D+10 54.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
South Carolina R+8 54.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
South Dakota R+14 61.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Tennessee R+14 60.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Texas R+8 52.2% R Likely RSafe R Lean R Lean R
Utah R+20 45.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R
Vermont D+15 56.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Virginia D+1 49.7% D Likely DSafe D Likely DLean D
Washington D+7 52.5% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
West Virginia R+19 68.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Wisconsin EVEN 47.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Wyoming R+25 67.4% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
预估总计目前共和党有260票 民主党有244票 另有34票还不确定
(资料来源wiki)
这34票分别来自NH PA(宾州) WI(威州 郭台铭投资的地方)
其中后二者是川普上次获胜的州 所以如果川普在后二者当中能赢其中一州
连任的机会就很大