简单来说南极海面已经变咸难以结冰，学界对此束手无策。
论文出处：
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0166
Antarctic sea ice extent began declining in 2015, reaching its minimum in the
post-1970s observational era in 2023. To diagnose the drivers of this
decline, we analyze an observationally constrained sea ice–ocean model
spanning 2013–2023 and identify three distinct phases of sea ice retreat.
First, intensifying westerlies preconditioned the Southern Ocean via
increased upwelling of warm, saline circumpolar deep water (CDW).
Second, strong winds in 2015–2016 enhanced the mixing of CDW into the upper
ocean, thereby initiating sea ice loss, particularly in East Antarctica.
Third, sustained mixing of CDW into the surface layer, combined with reduced
equatorward sea ice–derived freshwater export, maintained an unprecedentedly
low sea ice state. East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface
driven via enhanced upward CDW flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was
also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Our findings suggest that
persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may
push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.
南极海冰范围自2015年开始减少，并在2023年达到1970年代后观测时代的最低点。为了探
讨导致海冰减少的驱动因素，我们分析了一个基于观测资料的、涵盖2013年至2023年的海
冰-海洋模型，并识别出海冰退缩的三个不同阶段。
首先不断增强的环极深层水（Circumpolar Deep Water）开始将来自深海的温暖高盐海水
带到更接近海面的位置。
其次，2015年至2016年的强风增强了CDW向表层海洋的混合，从而引发了海冰的损失，尤
其是在南极东部。
第三，CDW持续向表层混合，加上赤道方向海冰来源的淡水输出减少，维持了前所未有的
低海冰状态。由于冰量减少，融化的冰层减少，导致海面保持高盐度和温暖状态，从而
抑制了新冰的形成。