川普归来，台湾获得美国支持代价更高
原标题：Taiwan Sees a Higher Price for U.S. Support as Trump Returns to Power
纽约时报
https://i.imgur.com/ePfuvm8.jpeg
去年，台湾士兵在进行军事演习。唐纳德·J·川普(Donald J. Trump)抱怨台湾，他说
：“他们不付钱给我们保护，你知道吗？”图片来源：Lam Yik Fei for The New York
Times
By Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien
In 2016, Taiwan’s president called Donald J. Trump to congratulate him after
he won the presidential election. Mr. Trump took the call, becoming the first
American president or president-elect to speak to a Taiwanese leader in
decades.
This time, after Mr. Trump won a second term in the White House, Taiwan was
quick to deny reports that its current leader, Lai Ching-te, was seeking a
similar phone call with the president-elect.
The contrast was telling.
Taiwan appears to be preparing for a more delicate, possibly testy,
relationship with Mr. Trump upon his return to the White House. On the
campaign trail, Mr. Trump had suggested that Taiwan should pay the United
States for helping defend the island from China, and complained that Taiwan
had stolen America’s business in semiconductors.
“There is more anxiety this time” in Taiwan about Mr. Trump’s taking
office, Chen Ming-chi, a former senior adviser on Taiwan’s National Security
Council, said in an interview.
2016年，台湾总统在川普赢得大选后致电祝贺他。川普接了电话，成为几十年来第一位与
台湾领导人通话的美国总统或候任总统。
这一次，在川普赢得白宫第二个任期后，台湾很快就否认了有关其现任领导人赖清德寻求
与当选总统进行类似电话通话的报道。
这种对比很能说明问题。
在川普重返白宫后，台湾似乎正在准备与他建立更微妙、甚至可能更暴躁的关系。在竞选
过程中，川普曾建议台湾应向美国支付费用，以帮助其保卫台湾免受中国侵害，并抱怨台
湾窃取了美国的半导体业务。
曾任台湾国家安全会议咨询委员的陈明祺在接受采访时表示，这次台湾对川普上任“更加
焦虑”。
By “declaring that we are not going to seek a congratulatory phone call,
that means we are more realistic,” said Professor Chen, who teaches at Taiwan
’s National Tsing Hua University. Mr. Lai issued a congratulatory statement
about Mr. Trump’s victory.
Tensions between Beijing and Taipei are high, with frequent Chinese military
drills stoking fears of an accidental conflict. A call with Mr. Trump could
prompt a forceful reaction from China, which claims the island as its
territory and resents whenever Taiwan acts like, or is treated as, a
sovereign nation.
For instance, that 2016 call between Mr. Trump and Tsai Ing-wen, who was then
Taiwan’s president, drew condemnation from China. The United States had
avoided leader-level contacts with Taiwan after it severed ties in 1979 to
switch to recognition of China.
The call was only the first of several notable steps by Mr. Trump that
bolstered U.S. support for Taiwan.
陈明祺现在台湾国立清华大学任教，他说：“表明我们宣布不寻求电话祝贺川普当选，这
意味着我们更加现实了。”赖清德对川普的胜选发表了祝贺声明。
北京和台北之间的关系非常紧张，中国频繁的军事演习引发了人们对意外冲突的担忧。与
川普通话可能会引发中国的强烈反应，中国声称台湾是其领土，每当台湾表现得像一个主
权国家或被当作一个主权国家对待时，中国都会感到不满。
例如，2016年川普与时任台湾总统蔡英文的通话招致了中国的谴责。美国在1979年与台湾
断绝关系转而承认中国后一直避免与台湾进行领导人级别的接触。
这通电话只是川普加强美国对台湾支持的几项重大举措中的第一步。
His administration later increased weapons sales to Taiwan and sent senior
officials to visit, in defiance of Beijing’s complaints. Such moves gained
Mr. Trump wide popularity in Taiwan even as much of the world soured on
American leadership under him.
后来，川普政府不顾北京的抗议，增加了对台军售，并派高级官员访问台湾。这些举措让
川普在台湾赢得了广泛支持，尽管世界大部分地区对他领导下的美国感到不满。
Now, Taiwan is also on the receiving end of Mr. Trump’s bluntly
transactional diplomacy. And the lack of formal relations means Taiwan’s
president, Mr. Lai, won’t get to make his case in a face-to-face meeting
with the new U.S. leader.
Mr. Trump’s complaints about Taiwan’s military spending and semiconductor
industry are adding to the pressure on Taiwan to buy more American weapons
and increase investment in building chip plants in the United States.
“You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business, OK?” he said on a recent
episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience,” a popular podcast. “They don’t pay
us money for the protection, you know? The mob makes you pay money, right?”
Professor Chen, the former security adviser, said Taiwan would have to adjust
its approach to securing the support of the United States and its allies.
现在，台湾也成为了川普单刀直入的交易型外交的受害者。由于缺乏正式关系，台湾总统
赖清德将无法与美国新领导人进行面对面会谈，陈述自己的观点。
川普对台湾军费开支和半导体行业的抱怨加大了台湾购买更多美国武器，以及增加在美国
投资建设芯片厂的压力。
“你知道，台湾，他们偷走了我们的芯片业务，好吗？”他在最近一期广受欢迎的播客《
乔·罗根体验》中说道。“我们保护他们，他们不付钱，你知道吗？黑帮是要收保护费的
，对吧？”
陈明祺教授表示，台湾必须调整其获取美国及其盟友支持的方式。
“In the past few years, we built our value on two things: democracy and
chips,” he said. “But democracy is not a focus of the coming Trump
administration, and the chips have turned from our advantage to a bit of a
problem, because Trump says we are stealing jobs.”
Taiwan’s trade may also suffer if President-elect Trump acts on vows to
steeply increase tariffs on goods imported into the United States. And some
in Taiwan worry that Mr. Trump may lose sight of the island’s concerns as he
focuses on his relationship — part pugilistic, part admiring — with China’
s strongman leader, Xi Jinping.
Despite Taiwan’s lack of formal diplomatic relationship with Washington, it
relies on U.S. support to counter China’s growing power and military
pressure. The partnership deepened under President Trump in his first term
and then under President Biden, while U.S. rivalry with China intensified.
Taiwanese officials have long sought to work closely with both Republicans
and Democrats, and are sure to try to build bridges with Mr. Trump’s
nominees for his next administration.
“过去几年，我们的价值建立在两件事上：民主和芯片，”他说。“但民主并不是即将上
任的川普政府的重点，而芯片已经从我们的优势变成了一个问题，因为川普说我们正在偷
走（美国人的）工作。”
如果当选总统川普兑现承诺，大幅提高进口到美国的商品关税，台湾的贸易也可能会收到
冲击。台湾一些人担心，川普可能会忽视台湾的担忧，因为他专注于跟中国强人领袖习近
平之间时而强硬好斗、时而谄媚的关系。
尽管台湾与华盛顿没有正式的外交关系，但它依靠美国的支持来对抗中国日益增长的实力
和军事压力。在川普总统的第一任期和拜登总统的任期内，美台伙伴关系不断加深，而美
国与中国的竞争则加剧了。
台湾官员长期以来一直寻求与共和党和民主党双方均密切合作，他们肯定会努力与川普下
一届政府的提名人建立联系。
Taiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure
from Washington. This year’s proposed budget would increase Taiwan’s
outlays on defense to about 2.6 percent of the island’s total economic
output. But Mr. Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to
10 percent of its gross domestic product.
Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Taiwan
’s president, Mr. Lai. His party does not have a majority in the
legislature, and Mr. Lai also wants to spend more on domestic priorities,
such as green energy.
Mr. Trump has signaled doubt as to how quickly and effectively the United
States could help defend against a Chinese invasion. “Taiwan’s a tough
situation,” Mr. Trump told The Washington Post. “Don’t forget, it’s 9,000
miles away” from the United States, he said.
Such comments are “a certain way to say, listen, you have to increase your
defense budget. That means you buy more American weapons,” said Miles Yu, a
senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who was a China policy adviser to Mike
Pompeo, a secretary of state in the Trump administration.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, and the island’s other
leading chip makers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate
more production in the United States. (Industry experts have said that Mr.
Trump’s accusation against Taiwan’s semiconductor makers is groundless,
noting that the Taiwan companies merely provide manufacturing services to
American chip giants.)
台湾已增加了军费开支，部分原因是受到华盛顿的压力。今年的预算提案将使台湾的国防
支出增加到经济总产出的2.6%左右。但川普表示，台湾的军费开支应增加到其GDP的10%。
大幅增加军费开支对台湾总统赖清德来说可能在政治上非常困难。他的政党在立法院不占
多数，而且他还希望在绿色能源等国内优先事项上投入更多资金。
对于美国能否在中国入侵台湾时提供迅速有效的帮助，川普表示过怀疑。“台湾的情况很
棘手。”他在接受《华盛顿邮报》采访时说。“别忘了，台湾离美国有9000英里远。”
这样的表述“无疑就是在说，听着，你必须增加国防预算。这意味着你要购买更多的美国
武器”，哈德逊研究所高级研究员、曾担任川普政府国务卿迈克·庞皮欧中国政策顾问的
余茂春说。
台积电和台湾其他主要芯片制造商可能会被川普政府要求将更多生产转移至美国。（行业
专家表示，川普对台湾半导体制造商的指控毫无根据，并指出台湾公司只是为美国芯片巨
头提供制造服务。）
Last week, some Taiwanese officials played down the potential harm of the
tariff plans, noting that Mr. Trump has threatened even higher tariffs on
goods from China, which could open up opportunities for Taiwanese businesses.
“For Taiwan, there are actually more pros than cons,” Liu Chin-ching, the
minister in charge of Taiwan’s National Development Council, told lawmakers
on Tuesday. Mr. Trump’s tariff proposals could drive more orders from China
to Taiwan, and encourage Taiwanese manufacturers to leave China, he said.
“The United States will impose technology restrictions to defend its own
interests,” Mr. Liu said, “but Taiwan will basically go along with these
restrictions, and we believe that we will have opportunities to benefit from
them.”
Taiwan will also closely watch Mr. Trump’s response to Russia’s war in
Ukraine.
Taiwan’s government has supported American aid to Ukraine, presenting it as
proof of united resistance to authoritarian threats, whether from Moscow or
possibly Beijing.
上周，一些台湾官员淡化了关税计划的潜在危害，指出川普威胁要对来自中国的商品征收
更高的关税，这可能会为台湾企业带来机会。
“对台湾而言其实利多于弊，”台湾国家发展委员会主任委员刘镜清周二对立委表示。他
说，川普的关税提议可能会让更多中国订单流向台湾，并鼓励台湾制造商离开中国。
“美国也会做技术的限令，这是为了保障美国的利益，”刘镜清说，“但基本上台湾可以
在这个技术限令中，我方认为有机会得到好处。”
台湾还将密切关注川普对俄罗斯与乌克兰战争的反应。
台湾政府支持美国对乌克兰的援助，将其作为团结抵抗威权威胁的证据，无论这一威胁是
来自莫斯科还是北京。
But Mr. Trump has said that he wants to quickly end that war. An abrupt
reduction in help for Ukraine may shake Taiwanese confidence, several experts
said.
“Taiwan’s leaders will view Trump’s handling of Ukraine as an early
warning for whether and how Trump would stand up to Chinese pressure on
Taiwan in the event of crisis,” said Ryan Hass, a former director for China
at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama.
Beijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between
Washington and Taipei, pressing its message that Taiwanese people cannot rely
on the United States — and should accept unification with China.
“Whether the United States wants to ‘protect Taiwan’ or ‘harm Taiwan,’ I
believe that most Taiwanese compatriots have made their own rational
judgments,” said Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman in Beijing for the Chinese
government office that deals with Taiwan.
Taiwanese people, Ms. Zhu added, “clearly know that the United States always
pursues ‘America First’ and Taiwan may change from a ‘pawn’ to a ‘
sacrificed piece’ at any time.”
但川普表示，他希望迅速结束这场战争。多位专家表示，对乌克兰援助的突然减少可能会
动摇台湾的信心。
“台湾领导人将把川普对乌克兰的处理视为一个预警，看看在危机发生时，川普是否会以
及如何顶住中国对台湾的压力，”曾任欧巴马总统国家安全委员会中国事务主任的莱恩·
哈斯表示。
北京似乎准备利用华盛顿和台北之间任何不和的迹象，强调台湾人不能依赖美国——而应
该接受与中国的统一。
“美国究竟是想‘保台’还是‘害台’，相信大部分台湾同胞已经作出理智判断，”中国
国台办发言人朱凤莲表示。
朱凤莲还说，台湾人民“清楚知道美国奉行的永远是‘美国优先’，台湾随时可能从‘棋
子’变成‘弃子’”。
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/10/world/asia/taiwan-trump-us-support.html