这一篇文章
Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence
Why America Must Reassure,
Not Just Threaten, China
By
Bonnie S. Glaser,
Jessica Chen Weiss,
Thomas J. Christensen
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https://reurl.cc/E1A0KK
其中这一段
For its part, Taiwan must accompany needed measures to bolster its defense with credible assurances to Beijing that as long as the Chinese military refrains from attacking Taiwan, Taipei will not pursue independence or permanent separation. Taiwan should refrain from potentially provocative actions, such as holding a referendum to change its official name, the Republic of China, or revising its territorial claims to exclude mainland China—changes that would indicate a declaration of formal independence.
Regardless of who is elected Taiwan’s next president, Taipei will need to convincingly reassure Beijing that it has no intention of fundamentally altering the status quo. But the need for such guarantees will grow in the event of the victory of Lai, the DPP candidate; Chinese officials deeply mistrust him since he has endorsed the pursuit of formal independence for Taiwan in the past. The pledge that Lai made, in an October 2023 speech in Taipei at a dinner attended by nearly 100 foreign dignitaries
and guests, to maintain Tsai’s cross-strait policy, with its emphasis on refusing both to bow to Chinese pressure and to provoke Beijing, is a good start. If elected, Lai could use his inaugural address to reaffirm the commitments Tsai made in her inaugural speech in 2016 to conduct cross-strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China’s constitution and the 1992 act governing relations between the two sides of the strait, Taipei’s law on how the island should manage relations with Beijing.
As Taiwan strengthens its military deterrent—including by increasing its ability to withstand a blockade and to defeat an invading Chinese force—it must also implement additional measures to reinforce the credibility of its assurances. In August, Lai took a step in the right direction when he made his stance on the naming question clear: “President Tsai has used the term Republic of China (Taiwan) to describe our country. I will continue to do so in the future.” This and other statements provide
China with rhetorical assurance, but because his party’s 1991 charter still calls for the creation of a “Republic of Taiwan” and a new constitution, doubts persist in Beijing about his willingness to hold to this position as president. If he wins the election, Lai should consider revisiting a proposal made by DPP legislators in 2014 to suspend the independence clause in the 1991 party charter, a nonbinding and reversible step that would give any rhetorical commitment to the status quo more weight and
credibility. Such a step could also be part of a gradual, reciprocal process to reduce tensions and build trust, as advocated by Richard Bush, the former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan.
Just as the United States must not rule out the possibility of an eventual peaceful integration of the two sides of the strait (as long as such a move has the assent of the people of Taiwan), Taipei should also not take actions that would permanently foreclose that outcome. To deter war, Taiwan must allow leaders in Beijing to believe that peaceful unification remains possible.
就台湾而言，在采取必要措施加强防御的同时，也必须向北京做出可靠保证，即只要中国军队不攻击台湾，台北就不会追求独立或永久分离。
台湾应避免采取潜在的挑衅性行动，例如举行公投以更改其正式名称“中华民国”，或修改其领土主张以将中国大陆排除在外，这些变化将表明正式宣布独立。
无论谁当选台湾下一任总统，台北都需要令人信服地向北京保证，它无意从根本上改变现状。
但如果民进党候选人赖清德获胜，对此类保证的需求将会增加；中国官员对他深感不信任，因为他过去曾支持台湾寻求正式独立。
2023 年 10 月，赖在台北举行的有近 100 名外国政要和嘉宾出席的晚宴上发表讲话，承诺维持蔡英文的两岸政策，强调拒绝屈服于中国压力和挑衅北京。这是一个好的开始。
如果当选，赖可以在就职演说中重申蔡英文在2016年就职演说中的承诺，即按照中华民国宪法和1992年两岸关系条例、台北市政府处理两岸事务。关于台湾如何处理与北京关系的法律。
随着台湾加强其军事威慑，包括提高其抵御封锁和击败入侵的中国军队的能力，它还必须采取更多措施来增强其保证的可信度。
8月，赖清德在命名问题上明确表态，朝着正确的方向迈出了一步：“蔡总统用中华民国（台湾）这个词来形容我们的国家。
今后我也会继续这样做。”o项声明和其他声明为中国提供了口头上的保证，但由于台湾1991年的党章仍然呼吁建立“台湾共和国”和一部新宪法，北京方面仍然对他是否愿意担任总统这一职位表示怀疑。如果赖赢得选举，他应该考虑重新审视民进党立委2014年提出的暂停1991年党章中的独立条款的提议，这是一个不具约束力和可逆的步骤，将使任何对现状的口头承诺更具分量和可信度。正如美国在台协会前主席理查德·布什所倡导的那样，这一步骤也可能是缓和紧张局势、建立信任的渐进互惠进程的一部分。
正如美国不能排除两岸最终和平融合的可能性（只要这一举动得到台湾人民的同意），台北也不应该采取永久排除台湾的行动。那个结果。为了阻止战争，台湾必须让北京领导人相信和平统一仍然是可能的。
全文很长
联合报提的是这段