1.媒体来源: 每日电讯报(The Telegraph)
2.记者署名: Nicola Smith
3.完整新闻标题:
Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential for lots of deaths’
曾为疫情模范生的台湾现在须面对可能的大量死亡案例
4.完整新闻内文:
Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential
for lots of deaths’
As the ‘zero Covid’ stalwart flinches at China's strict omicron lockdowns,
has it done enough to follow Singapore and South Korea's example?
眼见中国封城效果不彰，但要仿照新加坡及韩国，台湾做好准备了吗?
Within a few short weeks, Taiwan has been catapulted from a few hundred
Covid-19 cases a day to tens of thousands. The island now faces the daunting
prospect of a vertical trajectory of infections that could trigger
unprecedented death rates by this summer.
数周内，台湾单日确诊数已从数百例暴增到上万。台湾正面临像垂直弹道般的惊人感染状况，可能在夏季前造成前所未有的死亡率。
Anxious city dwellers are trying to carry on as normal, but restaurants, gyms
and schools are emptying out as people try to adjust to a dramatic shift from
the first two years of the pandemic, when the country was seen as one of the
world's few safe havens.
紧张的民众试着正常生活，但只见餐厅健身房学校空荡荡。
Taiwan successfully fought back every new outbreak and curbed infections and
deaths with a “zero Covid” strategy that, like neighbouring China, relied
on strict border controls and lengthy quarantine on arrival.
过去台湾靠着跟中国一样的边境管制与隔离的严格清零政策守住了每一波感染。
But now in the face of unprecedented surges driven by the highly contagious
omicron variant, democratic Taiwan is diverging from authoritarian China.
但面对omicron病毒，民主台湾决定走不同于专制中国的路。
While Beijing is doubling down on its stringent “zero Covid” approach,
Taiwan is shifting away from a suppression strategy. This week, Taipei also
condemned China’s stringent lockdowns as “cruel” – jolting video from the
modern city of Shanghai has revealed hungry residents appealing for food, and
citizens in Hebei province being bolted into their homes.
Rather than emulating China, Taiwan has its sights on South Korea and
Singapore – which have successfully reduced restrictions while keeping death
rates low. But with little natural immunity and suboptimal vaccination rates
among the vulnerable, experts predict Taiwan could face a rocky ride.
台湾把目光放在韩国及新加坡成功解封并保持低死亡率的例子上。但专家预测不足的自然免疫及疫苗接种率将会让台湾走得很辛苦。
On Thursday it breached 30,000 cases for the first time, and with an average
daily increase of 15 to 20 per cent, experts like Chase Nelson, a
Taipei-based computational biologist, predict Taiwan could peak at around
200,000 infections a day.
Only 15 per cent of the entire 23.5 million population remain unvaccinated,
but one of Taiwan’s biggest challenges lies in the alarming statistic that
21 per cent of over-75s have resisted the jab – many of them over fears
about side-effects.
That number has barely shifted since the sudden turnaround from a few dozen
cases a day to tens of thousands within a few weeks.
“The outbreak did give a kick in the pants to some people who had been
waiting but it doesn’t seem to be that substantial,” said Mr Nelson, who
estimates that if the vaccine pick-up remains the same, it will take five
months for an additional 10 per cent of over-75s to get just one dose.
“A fraction are just not going to do it. It’s almost like they would take a
chance on something they can’t control the timing of, which is their
infection,” he added.
The numbers could push Taiwan closer to Hong Kong, which has seen more than
9,300 – largely elderly – deaths for its 7.3m population, rather than
nearby South Korea, which recently weathered more than 600,000 cases a day by
getting booster shots to more than 90 per cent of those aged 60 and above.
While fatalities have so far remained low, experts warn that true figures are
being masked by a time lag of two to four weeks.
专家警告目前的低死亡率是假象，约需2-4周才会真实呈现。
An alarming analysis last month in Taiwan’s Commonwealth Magazine estimated
that some 22,000 senior citizens could die if vaccination rates did not pick
up, basing its calculation on Hong Kong’s fatality rates.
台湾的天下杂志预测，若台湾的疫苗接种率不变，以香港的死亡率推估，未来将有2.2万长者病殁。
For two years, Taiwan was hailed globally as a gold standard for its handling
of the pandemic, keeping deaths below 1,000 and its economy afloat, but flaws
in the country’s exit strategy risked an “underwhelming finish,” warned Mr
Nelson.
过去两年台湾被全球视为防疫模范生，但目前有缺陷的国家政策只会导致平庸的成果。
“I think it is doing some things right and some things poorly,” he said. “
I do think it is wise to recognise that maintaining absolutely zero Covid
with something as contagious as omicron is not a long-term viable strategy,
as is evidenced by Shanghai.”
面对omicron，放弃长期清零的策略正确。
‘Hospitals beginning to be overwhelmed’
With vaccinations fresh, and plateauing, now was a “well-calculated” time
to drop restrictions during an outbreak of the milder omicron variant, he
said. This week, Taiwan’s health ministry dropped quarantine on arrival to
seven days.
“At the same time, Taiwan has really done this quickly and they missed an
opportunity to say what they were planning and to prepare people for it,” Mr
Nelson added. “They have instead had this feeling of making up guidelines as
they go along… There is a lot of confusion, understandably, and I don’t
think that has been a wise move in terms of their strategy.”
但台湾解封太快却未及时宣导并超前部署。感觉像且战且走做出的政策指引让人迷惑，这步走得很不明智。
Taiwan’s testing capacity, in particular, has been pushed to its limits,
with long queues snaking round pharmacies to obtain scarce home kits, and
lengthy waits for PCR tests.
特别是台湾的检测量能已到极限，可以看到抢买稀有快筛的人龙包围药局，还有长长的队伍等著做PCR。
“Testing capacity is being outstripped. Hospitals are beginning to show
signs of being overwhelmed to some extent. I think that means the potential
for a lot of deaths unfortunately,” said Mr Nelson.
检测量能不足、医院被挤爆，很不幸的，就代表可能发生大量死亡案例。
Professor Chan Chang-chuan from National Taiwan University College of Public
Health pointed to two major shortfalls as Taiwan sought to adjust to Covid-19
as endemic.
詹长权指出台湾抗疫的两大缺口: 12岁以下的儿童BNT疫苗还买不够; 没事先强化医疗体系并指引民众自主在家隔离。
One had been the failure to order enough Pfizer vaccines for the under-12s,
he said.
Last month, Taiwan approved the use of the Moderna vaccine for children aged
6-11, but while this mirrors similar moves in the UK and EU, the hesitancy of
the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to greenlight the shot for children
has left Taiwanese parents uncertain.
Secondly, unlike Singapore, the authorities had not empowered the primary
healthcare system or prepared the public enough to self-isolate and treat
themselves at home.
In recent weeks, the country was shaken by the deaths of a two-year-old boy
and 20-year-old woman, who had a severe reaction to the virus and were
diagnosed too late.
台湾这几周因发生2岁童及20岁女性种症死亡的案例而举国震惊。
Singapore, which began the shift already last summer to treat Covid-19 like
the flu, did much groundwork ahead of time and had not experienced any deaths
among children, said Prof Chan.
但新加坡去年夏天开始把新冠当感冒后，就因为做好基本前置部署，没有儿童死亡案例。
“They built a recovery from home programme step by step and gave out
instructions to give people who are staying at home proper and timely medical
advice, like telemedicine, phone calls, consultations,” he said.
新加坡并提供居家者适当适时的医疗建议，像是远距医疗、电话关切、咨询等。新加坡民众就算在家也获得仔细的指引资讯 也因此紧急医疗量能也能保留给最需要的人。
“People were educated to be careful even if at home. They have the
information,” he added. “By doing this they reserved critical care capacity
so the most needy can be treated.”
Taiwan was adjusting to the rapidly changing situation but needed to step up
measures to encourage the elderly to vaccinate by restricting their access to
crowded gatherings and offering more healthcare assistance to allow them to
take the jab at home, said Prof Chan.
“In living with Covid we have to control the pandemic to a risk level that
is acceptable.”
要共存，我们必须将风险控制在可接受的范围。
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