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: 《经济学人》预测：川普胜选机率只剩4%！ 5张图透视美国总统、参议院选情
好的，我们来看一下四年前，Economist怎么预测美国选举的：
一、Oct. 24th 2016：
Donald Trump's slimming chances of victory（川普胜选的机会越来越小）
来上图：https://tinyurl.com/y4w9vgnl
最右边："Polls become more accurate as the election approaches"
（随着选举越来越接近，民调会越来越准确）
二、Nov. 5th 2016 issue：（周刊，通常会提前一周发，所以它是Oct.30 2016发行的）
The presidential election
America's best hope
Why we would cast our hypothetical vote for Hillary Clinton
（为什么我们会选择投给希拉蕊）
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝四年后分隔线 ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
How The Economist presidential forecast works
（经济学人的总统大选预测如何有效）
https://tinyurl.com/y4dzf2j9
Finally, we performed various minor tweaks to how we judge the correlations
between the states, how we update state-level trends with national data and
how we calculate the bias in pollsters that don’t weight their data to match
the partisan composition of the electorate. In sum, these changes caused Joe
Biden's chances of winning the popular vote and electoral college to each
decrease by roughly two percentage points.
结论：就是我们今年改了这些又改了那些，总而言之，今年我们预测，拜登会赢。